Recent
national polls showing presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry
running ahead of George W. Bush in the presidential race have been
cause for celebration for Democrats and progressives. But much of
the commentary regarding the presidential primaries has failed to
grasp fundamental aspects of how our presidential system works. And
not understanding our rules can lead to major tactical
errors.
For
instance, following Kerry's first-place finish in several southern
primaries, many pundits hailed this as proof that the Massachusetts
Democrat can be competitive against George W. Bush in the South. Yet
Kerry's wins may simply mean that many Democrats in the South --
approximately half of whom are African American -- are fairly
liberal. But they also are nearly always outvoted by the Republicans
and independents in the South, which is why the Republicans win so
many elections there these days, particularly statewide elections.
In fact, it
may be true that some candidate like John Edwards or Wesley Clark
would have a better chance of giving Bush a run for his money in
southern and swing states. Because given a choice between Edwards or
Bush, most Democrats who voted for Kerry would be passionately
anti-Bush enough to also vote for Edwards -- but Edward might do
better among southern moderates who are skeptical of Democrats from
Massachusetts. In Wisconsin's primary, Edward's strong second-place
finish was fueled by the highest Republican turnout of the primary
season, attesting to Edwards' ability to attract these swing
voters.
So some of
the sighs of relief on the part of Democrats, both voters and party
leaders, in quickly choosing their nominee Kerry may be entirely
misplaced.
In
addition, one major point missing from the punditry discussion is
that, when it comes to the presidential election, national polls
don't tell us a whole lot. That includes the recent polls showing
both Kerry and Edwards running competitively against Bush. Here's
why.
The
structure of our electoral college method of electing the president
means that each state is fought out as an individual,
winner-take-all contest. That means the highest vote-getter wins
100% of the electoral votes from that state, even if they have less
than a majority of the vote. And most states already are locked up
for one party or the other.
States like
Texas, New York, California, Massachusetts, Wyoming, Mississippi --
in fact, most of our states -- already are done deals. Voters there
don't even need to show up to the polls, since they are locked down
in a state that is a card-carrying member of either Red or Blue
America. We can comfortably predict, right now, who is going to win
over 70% of the states.
That means
the election will boil down to only about 15 states. And it will be
a handful of undecided swing voters in those 15 states, combined
with voter mobilization, that will decide the presidency. For
progressives, this should be sobering, particularly when you realize
those states are ones like Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, and
Florida, and the swing voters in those states are not very
progressive.
If Kerry's
gains on Bush mostly have occurred in the Blue states won by Al
Gore, that just means he will win those states by a greater margin.
But Kerry needs to win more states than Al Gore, not just more
voters. Voter distribution is critically important.
In reality
our presidential election is not a national election, but a series
of state elections. And each side has their polls and focus groups
that help them plot their strategy in these individual states.
Polling from the battleground states would be more informative and
revealing for the public than national polls -- just ask Al Gore why
he's not president, after winning a half million more votes than
Bush in 2000.
Information
from the battleground states also would help voters understand how
our presidential election system really works, instead of the
textbook description that is so off the mark. Voters also might then
understand how irrelevant most of us are in deciding the next
president, because we don't live in one of the 15 battleground
states.
That means
with the Democratic presidential nomination all but over, the race
now is about who the vice presidential candidate will be, and which
vice presidential candidate will help the Democrats in these handful
of swing states. If the Democrats manage to win all the states they
won in 2000 -- a very real possibility -- they only need to pick up
one more state like Florida, Arkansas or Missouri to win. Candidates
like Wesley Clark or John Edwards could help the Democrats win their
home states of Arkansas or North Carolina. Dick Gephardt could help
in Missouri, and Senator Bob Graham in Florida. So look for a
candidate like them as the Democrats' vice presidential nominee.
And the
next time you read the latest national poll, picture instead 50
individual states, each fought as individual, winner-take-all
contests, with only a handful deciding the next president. Hopefully
the media will start providing the information and analysis we need
to understand our presidential
system.