October 14, 2004 - Jill |
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1. Partisanships were off by a couple
percentage points in almost every case.
Data was added into columns CV through DI to determine partisanship. Columns |
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L and M were then made identical to
column DH, with the new partisanships using data from the Almanac of American
Politics 2004. This was NOT the |
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case with Texas. The altered district partisanships used to
take into account the 2002 redistricting remain as they were. |
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September
16, 2004 - Jill |
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1. Updated with all primaries through
September 14. |
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2. R. Alexander changed parties (Dem. to
Rep). Handled this by treating him as
if he were elected as a Republican in 2002. |
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3. Ralph Hall changed parties. Because the spreadsheet wasn't set up to
handle party changing, we handled this by treating him as if he was newly
elected in |
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2002 as a Republican rather than as a
longtime Democratic incumbent. |
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4. In columns BE and BF, All formulae going
to column L were changed to go to column M, to take partisanships from 2004
rather than 2002 and thus adjust |
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for Texas' redistricting for open
seats. |
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August
31, 2004 - Jill |
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1. Updated with Aug. 24 primaries. |
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2. Added open seat for VA-2. |
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3. Uploaded all to web. |
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June
28th - stephanie |
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1. Updated all of the uncontested seats as of
June 28th |
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2. Uploaded this version as the zip file to
web. |
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3. Added information on special elections and
SD-1. |
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4. Fixed the definitions of landslide,
competitive and tight on the easy viewing sheet. |
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May
25 - ck |
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1. Problem with conditional formatting on
Easy Viewing: deleted headers,
re-copied formulas and conditional formats, re-inserted headers as rows. |
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2. Modifed formulas to the side of Easy
Viewing to avoid coloring "New" p-ships. |
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May
17 - ck |
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1. Formula in easy viewing for 2000 result
set to be blank if no data reported in the projections sheet. |
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2. Deleted cells in Open seat column that had
spaces but no other entries in them. |
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3. Minor edits to Special Elections and
notes. Deleted note about color
shading showing incumbents whose district #s changed. |
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May
14th |
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1.
Added open seat for Jack Quinn |
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2. Revised Algorithm document and User's
Guide to include 5th projection model (twice-uncontested) and 2004
terminology, adjustments of performance based on p-ships, etc |
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April
29 - changes |
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1. Re-copied formulas for Codes in Easy
Viewing (so it's blank if no code present, instead of zero, and made formulas
deal with headers) |
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2. Re-did formulas for projections totals
(totals are from Projections column P, Rep totals are from column S, and
Dem/Ind totals are the difference)
See Yellow box on Easy Viewing. |
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April
27- changes |
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1. Clean up blank cells in code column that
had spaces or other invisible characters. |
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2. Add code of "2" for twice
uncontested. |
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3. Modify 3 columns for twice-uncontested
model |
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Q |
Democratic
Projection: increased range of index
function to include 5 projection (number 4 for twice-uncontested) |
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AW |
Model selection: included option 4 |
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BC |
Inserted column for
including twice-uncontested projection |
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CG |
Checks if code column
contains the character "2" |
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CH |
Projection for twice
uncontested is pship-3% for Reps, pship+3% for Dems |
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4. Delete Monopoly Politics sheet |
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5. Inserted column headers into the middle of
"Easy Viewing" so they show up on the web page as you scroll down. |
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6. Adjust formula so only show codes if they
exist, otherwise, leave cell blank |
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April
23 - changes |
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1. Caleb preparing to input data on 2
uncontested races and create separate projection model for that group. |
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2. Minor cosmetic changes to Easy Viewing
sheet for webposting |
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March
17 - Apr 23 |
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1. Stephanie working on Easy Viewing sheet
(no other changes documented) |
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March
17 - changes to incorporate TX re-redistricting. |
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These
changes only affect TX, since that's the only state where the 2004 p-ship is
different than the 2002 p-ship. |
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1. Started with mp2004_march_3.xls
(downloaded from website approx Mar 3) |
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2.
Copy formulas from row 1 all the way to make sure totals don’t change (this
ensures that range names are used consistently) |
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3. Redefine pship to be 2004 pship |
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4. Define pship1 and pship2 to be the pship
for 2000 and 2002. |
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5. Define adj1 and adj2 in columns CF and CG
to adjustment to 2000 and 2002 performances based on changes in p-ship. |
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6. Use adj1 and adj2 to adjust past
performances in columns AR and AS |
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7. I added notes about TX, including the
party shift (Ralph Hall, TX-4). |
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To do: |
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1. Check my work, and confirm that the
algorithm is working correctly. |
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2. Enter data about uncontested elections (U
for uncontested by major party, UU is completely uncontested). |
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3. Track down data about uncontested
primaries (for Dubious Democracy) |
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March
01 '04-changes |
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1. Corrected the districts whos 2002
partisanship was based on 2000 partisanship, they were previously denoted by
an *. |
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Feb
25th '04-changes |
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1. The open seats that are confirmed as of
the 24th have been fixed. |
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2. The special elections that have already
taken place have been updated. Ones
that are upcomming have been noted in the speacial elections notes on the
bottom. |
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3. An adustment of the 2002 Texas
partisanship was made to reflect the recent redistricting. |
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These
partisanship changes were based on 2 party percentages and might vary from
the national percentages. |
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4. The correct winning 2000 percentages have
been installed from CA-40 through WY-1. |
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Dec
11 - change |
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1. Winning party formula had switched
"No proj" with "Most vulnerable". Corrected |
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November
14 - significant reformating, usability changes |
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1. For winner who defeated other incumbents
in the general election, I listed 2000 data for the winner (% and p-ship).
This affected CT-5, IL-19 and PA-17. |
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2. Order of variables and descriptions
changed. |
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3. 2004 results and accuracy columns moved to
left. |
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Nov
6 - changes |
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1. Preliminary winning party and % entered in
mp2002 showing accuracy of projections for 2002 and using that data for 2004
projections. |
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October
30 - changes |
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1. The adjustment to worst performance was
modified to only affect 2000 performance. |
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2. Patsy Mink's seat is listed an open seat
elected in 2003. |
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Oct
25 - changes |
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1. This works off the Oct 18 version and
splices in NCEC data for 2002 districts for AL, NE and NH. |
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2. This changes the codes by eliminating * in
those seats. |
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D |
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NOTES
- Monopoly Politics 2002 Projections |
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1) Please see the "Users Guide -
Monopoly Politics," "Raw data.xls" and
"Algorithm.doc" for additional description of how to use the
spreadsheet, |
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how the model works and the source of
data. These files are available at
www.fairvote.org/2002 |
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2) The spreadsheet allows the user to modify
parameters in cells shaded blue to examine their effect on projections. |
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3) If you enter in cells N15 to O449 the
winning party and percentage after the election, the spreadsheet will
calculate the accuracy of projections. |
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if you copy the formulas in cells V15
and W15 into the cells V15 to W449. |
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4) In cells highlighted yellow, the
spreadsheet keeps track of the number of projections by category, their
accuracy, the number of vulnerable |
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candidates who lost, and so on. The number of projections by category for
seats held by Dems and Republicans is in cells AA1 to AE8. |
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5) Cells AH1 to AL7 shows the number of races
affected by each parameter (overachievers, underachievers, better 2nd
election, uncontested). |
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The
Center for Voting and Democracy |
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6930
Carroll Ave Suite 610 |
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Takoma
Park MD 20903 |
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301-270-4616,
301-270-4133 (fax) |
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[email protected] |
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