Monopoly Politics 2004: Projections in U.S.
House Races |
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In this report we
list our projections for U.S. House races in 2004 and provide all the data
used in making those projections. |
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We
go into more detail in our |
methodology and terminology section |
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For
understanding this report, note the following: |
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1. Projections are
based on the parties equally dividing the national vote. Shifts in that vote
would shift |
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some, but not
many, of the projections. |
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2. 2000
partisanship, 2002 partisanship and (for Texas only) 2004 partisanship are
based on the way we analyze presidential |
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election results
in a district. If district lines had not changed since 2000, the district
partisanship would not have changed. |
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3. The key
projection terms are: |
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Landslide: winning by
more than 20% |
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Comfortable: winning a
seat by more than 10% but less than 20% |
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Tight: winning a seat by
less than 10% |
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Competitive: seat is potentially in play in 2004 |
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Vulnerable: seat most likely to change hands in 2004 in a 50-50 national
vote |
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4.
In the incumbent column, blue text indicates Democrats, red text indicates Republicans and light green text indicates Independents. |
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5.
Note that due to redistricting, there often was not a clean connection
between district numbers in 2000 and in 2002. Many . |
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incumbents
ran in district with new numbers, and some districts with the same number
were quite different in 2002 than in 2000. |
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Summary of Projections |
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Codes |
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Projection |
Dem/Ind |
Rep |
Total |
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UU |
Incumbent is completely
uncontested in November 2004 |
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Landslide |
109 |
102 |
211 |
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U |
Incumbent is uncontested
by a major party in Nov. 2004 |
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Comfortable |
38 |
69 |
107 |
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O |
Open seat in 2004
election |
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Tight |
9 |
24 |
33 |
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D |
Incumbent defeated in
primary |
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Projections |
156 |
195 |
351 |
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S |
Denotes an incumbent who
switched parties. |
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This data all comes from the Projections page and is used to
format the Easy Viewing page |
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Competitive |
37 |
34 |
71 |
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I |
Denotes incumbent verses
incumbent |
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Vulnerable |
13 |
0 |
13 |
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V |
Special election to fill
vacancy since November 2002 |
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These cells are used to show no projected party |
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Total
Seats |
206 |
229 |
435 |
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2 |
Denotes an incumbent
uncontested in the last 2 elections |
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in the projection party column to the left |
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Competitive |
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Vulnerable |
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DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
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Low |
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Low |
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Winning Party |
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District Partisanship |
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Party favored by p-ship |
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2002-2004 |
Projected |
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Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
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Proj |
No |
2000 |
2002 |
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TX only |
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TX only |
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State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
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State |
CD |
Party |
Proj |
Party |
Party |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
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Alabama |
1 |
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Jo
Bonner (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
2002 |
91% |
60% |
R R |
60% |
61% |
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Alabama |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
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Alabama |
2 |
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Terry
Everett (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1992 |
68% |
69% |
R R |
62% |
61% |
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Alabama |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
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Alabama |
3 |
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Mike
Rogers (R) |
Competitive |
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51% |
2002 |
87% |
50% |
R R |
56% |
52% |
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Alabama |
3 |
Competitive |
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R |
R |
44% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
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Alabama |
4 |
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Robert
Aderholt (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1996 |
61% |
87% |
R R |
58% |
61% |
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Alabama |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
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Alabama |
5 |
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Bud
Cramer (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
57% |
1990 |
89% |
73% |
D D |
55% |
55% |
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Alabama |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
45% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
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Alabama |
6 |
2
UU |
Spencer
Bachus (R) |
Landslide |
R |
76% |
1992 |
88% |
90% |
R R |
69% |
73% |
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Alabama |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
31% |
27% |
27% |
R |
R |
R |
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Alabama |
7 |
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Artur
Davis (D) |
Landslide |
D |
76% |
2002 |
75% |
92% |
D D |
75% |
68% |
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Alabama |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
75% |
68% |
68% |
D |
D |
D |
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Alaska |
1 |
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Don
Young (R) |
Landslide |
R |
69% |
1973 |
70% |
75% |
R R |
71% |
71% |
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Alaska |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
29% |
29% |
29% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arizona |
1 |
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Rick
Renzi (R) |
Competitive |
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50% |
2002 |
54% |
49% |
R R |
56% |
53% |
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Arizona |
1 |
Competitive |
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R |
R |
44% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arizona |
2 |
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Trent
Franks (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
2002 |
66% |
60% |
R R |
58% |
58% |
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Arizona |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arizona |
3 |
U |
John
Shadegg (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1994 |
64% |
67% |
R R |
55% |
56% |
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Arizona |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arizona |
4 |
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Ed
Pastor (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1991 |
69% |
67% |
D D |
62% |
64% |
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Arizona |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
62% |
64% |
64% |
D |
D |
D |
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Arizona |
5 |
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J.D.
Hayworth (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1994 |
61% |
61% |
R R |
56% |
55% |
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Arizona |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arizona |
6 |
U |
Jeff
Flake (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
2000 |
54% |
66% |
R R |
54% |
61% |
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Arizona |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arizona |
7 |
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Raul
Grijalva (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
2002 |
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59% |
D |
New |
59% |
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Arizona |
7 |
D |
D |
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D |
New |
59% |
59% |
New |
D |
D |
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Arizona |
8 |
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Jim
Kolbe (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
1984 |
60% |
63% |
R R |
51% |
52% |
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Arizona |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
49% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arkansas |
1 |
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Marion
Berry (D) |
Tight |
D |
54% |
1996 |
60% |
66% |
D D |
52% |
51% |
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Arkansas |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
52% |
51% |
51% |
D |
D |
D |
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Arkansas |
2 |
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Vic
Snyder (D) |
Competitive |
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53% |
1996 |
58% |
93% |
D D |
51% |
51% |
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Arkansas |
2 |
Competitive |
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D |
D |
49% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arkansas |
3 |
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John
Boozman (R) |
Landslide |
R |
74% |
2001 |
56% |
99% |
R R |
61% |
61% |
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Arkansas |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
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Arkansas |
4 |
UU |
Mike
Ross (D) |
Competitive |
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53% |
2000 |
51% |
61% |
D D |
52% |
51% |
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Arkansas |
4 |
Competitive |
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D |
D |
52% |
51% |
51% |
D |
D |
D |
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DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
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Low |
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Low |
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2002-2004 |
Projected |
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Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
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State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
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California |
1 |
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Mike
Thompson (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
58% |
1998 |
65% |
64% |
D D |
52% |
53% |
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California |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
52% |
53% |
53% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
2 |
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Wally
Herger (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
1986 |
66% |
66% |
R R |
64% |
65% |
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California |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
36% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
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California |
3 |
O |
Open
(Doug Ose) (R) |
Competitive |
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52% |
1998 |
56% |
62% |
R R |
54% |
57% |
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California |
3 |
Competitive |
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R |
R |
46% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
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California |
4 |
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John
Doolittle (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
1990 |
63% |
65% |
R R |
61% |
63% |
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California |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
37% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
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California |
5 |
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Robert
Matsui (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1978 |
69% |
71% |
D D |
59% |
62% |
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California |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
6 |
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Lynn
Woolsey (D) |
Landslide |
D |
64% |
1992 |
64% |
66% |
D D |
64% |
64% |
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California |
6 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
64% |
64% |
64% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
7 |
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George
Miller (D) |
Landslide |
D |
69% |
1974 |
76% |
71% |
D D |
71% |
68% |
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California |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
71% |
68% |
68% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
8 |
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Nancy
Pelosi (D) |
Landslide |
D |
79% |
1987 |
84% |
80% |
D D |
79% |
79% |
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California |
8 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
79% |
79% |
79% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
9 |
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Barbara
Lee (D) |
Landslide |
D |
81% |
1998 |
85% |
81% |
D D |
81% |
80% |
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California |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
81% |
80% |
80% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
10 |
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Ellen
Tauscher (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
55% |
1996 |
53% |
76% |
D D |
53% |
57% |
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California |
10 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
57% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
11 |
UU |
Richard
Pombo (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
1992 |
58% |
60% |
R R |
51% |
54% |
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California |
11 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
49% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
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California |
12 |
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Tom
Lantos (D) |
Landslide |
D |
67% |
1980 |
75% |
68% |
D D |
69% |
68% |
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California |
12 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
69% |
68% |
68% |
D |
D |
D |
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California |
13 |
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Pete
Stark (D) |
Landslide |
D |
69% |
1972 |
70% |
71% |
D D |
69% |
69% |
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California |
13 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
69% |
69% |
69% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
14 |
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Anna
Eshoo (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1992 |
70% |
68% |
D D |
65% |
63% |
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California |
14 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
63% |
63% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
15 |
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Michael
Honda (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
2000 |
54% |
66% |
D D |
59% |
62% |
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California |
15 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
16 |
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Zoe
Lofgren (D) |
Landslide |
D |
66% |
1994 |
72% |
67% |
D D |
67% |
65% |
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California |
16 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
67% |
65% |
65% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
17 |
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Sam
Farr (D) |
Landslide |
D |
64% |
1993 |
69% |
68% |
D D |
62% |
61% |
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California |
17 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
62% |
61% |
61% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
18 |
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Dennis
Cardoza (D) |
Competitive |
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52% |
2002 |
67% |
51% |
D D |
54% |
55% |
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California |
18 |
Competitive |
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D |
D |
46% |
55% |
55% |
R |
D |
D |
|
California |
19 |
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George
Radanovich (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1994 |
65% |
67% |
R R |
60% |
59% |
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California |
19 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
20 |
O |
Open
(Cal Dooley) (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1990 |
52% |
63% |
D D |
52% |
56% |
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California |
20 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
52% |
56% |
56% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
21 |
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Devin
Nunes (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
2002 |
|
70% |
R |
New |
62% |
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California |
21 |
R |
R |
|
R |
New |
38% |
38% |
New |
R |
R |
|
California |
22 |
UU |
Bill
Thomas (R) |
Landslide |
R |
68% |
1978 |
72% |
73% |
R R |
64% |
65% |
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California |
22 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
36% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
23 |
|
Lois
Capps (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
57% |
1998 |
53% |
59% |
D D |
53% |
55% |
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California |
23 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
47% |
55% |
55% |
R |
D |
D |
|
California |
24 |
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Elton
Gallegly (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1986 |
54% |
65% |
R R |
50% |
56% |
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California |
24 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
50% |
44% |
44% |
D |
R |
R |
|
California |
25 |
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Buck
McKeon (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1992 |
62% |
65% |
R R |
53% |
57% |
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California |
25 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
26 |
|
David
Dreier (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1980 |
57% |
64% |
R R |
51% |
55% |
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|
California |
26 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
51% |
45% |
45% |
D |
R |
R |
|
California |
27 |
|
Brad
Sherman (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1996 |
66% |
62% |
D D |
60% |
62% |
|
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California |
27 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
60% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
28 |
|
Howard
Berman (D) |
Landslide |
D |
70% |
1982 |
84% |
71% |
D D |
73% |
74% |
|
|
California |
28 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
73% |
74% |
74% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
29 |
|
Adam
Schiff (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
60% |
2000 |
53% |
63% |
D D |
56% |
59% |
|
|
California |
29 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
56% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
30 |
|
Henry
Waxman (D) |
Landslide |
D |
70% |
1974 |
76% |
70% |
D D |
74% |
70% |
|
|
California |
30 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
74% |
70% |
70% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
31 |
|
Xavier
Becerra (D) |
Landslide |
D |
80% |
1992 |
83% |
81% |
D D |
78% |
79% |
|
|
California |
31 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
78% |
79% |
79% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
32 |
|
Hilda
Solis (D) |
Landslide |
D |
68% |
2000 |
75% |
69% |
D D |
72% |
68% |
|
|
California |
32 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
72% |
68% |
68% |
D |
D |
D |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
California |
33 |
U |
Diane
Watson (D) |
Landslide |
D |
83% |
2001 |
75% |
83% |
D D |
86% |
85% |
|
|
California |
33 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
86% |
85% |
85% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
34 |
|
Lucille
Roybal-Allard (D) |
Landslide |
D |
73% |
1992 |
85% |
74% |
D D |
85% |
74% |
|
|
California |
34 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
85% |
74% |
74% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
35 |
|
Maxine
Waters (D) |
Landslide |
D |
76% |
1990 |
87% |
77% |
D D |
88% |
83% |
|
|
California |
35 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
88% |
83% |
83% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
36 |
|
Jane
Harman (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
2000 |
48% |
61% |
D D |
53% |
59% |
|
|
California |
36 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
37 |
|
Juanita
Mill-McDonald (D) |
Landslide |
D |
72% |
1996 |
82% |
73% |
D D |
86% |
78% |
|
|
California |
37 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
86% |
78% |
78% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
38 |
UU |
Grace
Napolitano (D) |
Landslide |
D |
70% |
1998 |
71% |
71% |
D D |
70% |
72% |
|
|
California |
38 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
70% |
72% |
72% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
39 |
|
Linda
Sanchez (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
58% |
2002 |
48% |
55% |
D D |
60% |
64% |
|
|
California |
39 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
60% |
64% |
64% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
40 |
|
Ed
Royce (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1992 |
63% |
68% |
R R |
54% |
58% |
|
|
California |
40 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
41 |
U |
Jerry
Lewis (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1978 |
80% |
67% |
R R |
58% |
57% |
|
|
California |
41 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
42 |
|
Gary
Miller (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1998 |
59% |
68% |
R R |
51% |
60% |
|
|
California |
42 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
49% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
43 |
|
Joe
Baca (D) |
Landslide |
D |
66% |
1999 |
60% |
66% |
D D |
60% |
65% |
|
|
California |
43 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
60% |
65% |
65% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
44 |
|
Ken
Calvert (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1992 |
74% |
63% |
R R |
54% |
54% |
|
|
California |
44 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
45 |
|
Mary
Bono (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
1998 |
59% |
65% |
R R |
51% |
52% |
|
|
California |
45 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
49% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
46 |
|
Dana
Rohrabacher (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1988 |
62% |
62% |
R R |
58% |
57% |
|
|
California |
46 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
47 |
|
Loretta
Sanchez (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
1996 |
60% |
61% |
D D |
57% |
58% |
|
|
California |
47 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
57% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
48 |
|
Christopher
Cox (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1988 |
66% |
68% |
R R |
59% |
59% |
|
|
California |
48 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
49 |
|
Darrell
Issa (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
2000 |
61% |
78% |
R R |
62% |
60% |
|
|
California |
49 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
50 |
|
Duke
Cunningham (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1990 |
64% |
64% |
R R |
57% |
56% |
|
|
California |
50 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
51 |
|
Bob
Filner (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
57% |
1992 |
68% |
58% |
D D |
61% |
58% |
|
|
|
|
California |
51 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
61% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
California |
52 |
|
Duncan
Hunter (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1980 |
65% |
70% |
R R |
57% |
59% |
|
|
California |
52 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
California |
53 |
|
Susan
Davis (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
2000 |
50% |
62% |
D D |
55% |
59% |
|
|
California |
53 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
55% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Colorado |
1 |
|
Diana
DeGette (D) |
Landslide |
D |
63% |
1996 |
69% |
66% |
D D |
66% |
62% |
|
|
Colorado |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
66% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Colorado |
2 |
|
Mark
Udall (D) |
Tight |
D |
55% |
1998 |
55% |
60% |
D D |
52% |
54% |
|
|
Colorado |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
52% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Colorado |
3 |
O |
Open
(Scott McInnis) (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1992 |
66% |
66% |
R R |
56% |
59% |
|
|
Colorado |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Colorado |
4 |
|
Marilyn
Musgrave (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
2002 |
79% |
55% |
R R |
60% |
62% |
|
|
Colorado |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Colorado |
5 |
|
Joel
Hefley (R) |
Landslide |
R |
68% |
1986 |
83% |
69% |
R R |
63% |
67% |
|
|
Colorado |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
33% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Colorado |
6 |
|
Tom
Tancredo (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1998 |
54% |
67% |
R R |
51% |
61% |
|
|
Colorado |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
49% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Colorado |
7 |
|
Bob
Beauprez (R) |
Competitive |
|
48% |
2002 |
|
47% |
R |
New |
51% |
|
|
Colorado |
7 |
Competitive |
|
|
R |
New |
51% |
51% |
New |
D |
D |
|
Connecticut |
1 |
|
John
Larson (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1998 |
72% |
67% |
D D |
65% |
64% |
|
|
Connecticut |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
64% |
64% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Connecticut |
2 |
|
Rob
Simmons (R) |
Competitive |
|
47% |
2000 |
51% |
54% |
R R |
58% |
56% |
|
|
Connecticut |
2 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
58% |
56% |
56% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Connecticut |
3 |
|
Rosa
DeLauro (D) |
Landslide |
D |
63% |
1990 |
72% |
66% |
D D |
62% |
62% |
|
|
Connecticut |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
62% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Connecticut |
4 |
|
Christopher
Shays (R) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1987 |
58% |
64% |
R R |
57% |
55% |
|
|
Connecticut |
4 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
57% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Connecticut |
5 |
|
Nancy
Johnson (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1982 |
54% |
54% |
R R |
55% |
54% |
|
|
Connecticut |
5 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
55% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
Delaware |
1 |
|
Michael
Castle (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
1992 |
68% |
72% |
R R |
57% |
57% |
|
|
Delaware |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
57% |
57% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
1 |
|
Jeff
Miller (R) |
Landslide |
R |
70% |
2001 |
66% |
75% |
R R |
68% |
67% |
|
|
Florida |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
32% |
33% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
2 |
|
Allen
Boyd (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1996 |
72% |
67% |
D D |
51% |
51% |
|
|
Florida |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
51% |
49% |
49% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
3 |
U |
Corrine
Brown (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
58% |
1992 |
58% |
59% |
D D |
63% |
67% |
|
|
Florida |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
63% |
67% |
67% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
4 |
U |
Ander
Crenshaw (R) |
Landslide |
R |
66% |
2000 |
67% |
100% |
R R |
62% |
64% |
|
|
Florida |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
5 |
|
Virginia
Brown-Waite (R) |
Competitive |
|
49% |
2002 |
64% |
48% |
D R |
54% |
52% |
|
|
Florida |
5 |
Competitive |
|
D |
R |
54% |
48% |
48% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
6 |
|
Cliff
Stearns (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1988 |
100% |
65% |
R R |
59% |
57% |
|
|
Florida |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
7 |
UU |
John
Mica (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
1992 |
63% |
60% |
R R |
50% |
52% |
|
|
Florida |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
50% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
8 |
|
Ric
Keller (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
2000 |
51% |
65% |
R R |
50% |
52% |
|
|
Florida |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
50% |
48% |
48% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
9 |
U |
Michael
Bilirakis (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1982 |
82% |
71% |
R R |
52% |
53% |
|
|
Florida |
9 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
48% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
10 |
2 |
C.W.
(Bill) Young (R) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1970 |
76% |
100% |
R R |
56% |
52% |
|
|
Florida |
10 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
56% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
11 |
2 U |
Jim
Davis (D) |
Landslide |
D |
66% |
1996 |
85% |
100% |
D D |
56% |
63% |
|
|
Florida |
11 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
56% |
63% |
63% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
12 |
|
Adam
Putnam (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
2000 |
57% |
100% |
R R |
55% |
53% |
|
|
Florida |
12 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
13 |
|
Katherine
Harris (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
2002 |
64% |
55% |
R R |
52% |
53% |
|
|
Florida |
13 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
48% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
14 |
O |
Open
(Porter Goss) (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1988 |
85% |
100% |
R R |
59% |
60% |
|
|
Florida |
14 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
15 |
|
Dave
Weldon (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1994 |
59% |
63% |
R R |
53% |
52% |
|
|
Florida |
15 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
16 |
|
Mark
Foley (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1994 |
60% |
79% |
R R |
53% |
51% |
|
|
Florida |
16 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
53% |
49% |
49% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
17 |
U |
Kendrick
Meek (D) |
Landslide |
D |
91% |
2002 |
100% |
100% |
D D |
87% |
86% |
|
|
Florida |
17 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
87% |
86% |
86% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
18 |
|
Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1989 |
100% |
69% |
R R |
60% |
55% |
|
|
Florida |
18 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
19 |
UU |
Robert
Wexler (D) |
Landslide |
D |
71% |
1996 |
72% |
72% |
D D |
71% |
74% |
|
|
Florida |
19 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
71% |
74% |
74% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
20 |
O |
Open
(Peter Deutsch) (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1992 |
100% |
100% |
D D |
65% |
71% |
|
|
Florida |
20 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
71% |
71% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
21 |
2 U |
Lincoln
Diaz-Balart (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1992 |
100% |
100% |
R R |
61% |
56% |
|
|
Florida |
21 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
22 |
|
Clay
Shaw (R) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1980 |
50% |
61% |
R R |
62% |
54% |
|
|
|
|
Florida |
22 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
62% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
23 |
UU |
Alcee
Hastings (D) |
Landslide |
D |
75% |
1992 |
76% |
77% |
D D |
82% |
81% |
|
|
Florida |
23 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
82% |
81% |
81% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Florida |
24 |
UU |
Tom
Feeney (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
2002 |
|
62% |
R |
New |
52% |
|
|
Florida |
24 |
R |
R |
|
R |
New |
48% |
48% |
New |
R |
R |
|
Florida |
25 |
UU |
Mario
Diaz-Balart (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
2002 |
|
65% |
R |
New |
53% |
|
|
Florida |
25 |
R |
R |
|
R |
New |
47% |
47% |
New |
R |
R |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
Georgia |
1 |
UU |
Jack
Kingston (R) |
Landslide |
R |
67% |
1992 |
69% |
72% |
R R |
56% |
63% |
|
|
Georgia |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
37% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
2 |
|
Sanford
Bishop (D) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1992 |
53% |
100% |
D D |
53% |
50% |
|
|
Georgia |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
47% |
50% |
50% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Georgia |
3 |
|
Jim
Marshall (D) |
Competitive |
|
49% |
2002 |
|
51% |
D |
New |
51% |
|
|
Georgia |
3 |
Competitive |
|
|
D |
New |
49% |
49% |
New |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
4 |
O |
Open
(Denise Majette ) (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
2002 |
61% |
77% |
D D |
72% |
71% |
|
|
Georgia |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
72% |
71% |
71% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Georgia |
5 |
UU |
John
Lewis (D) |
Landslide |
D |
69% |
1986 |
77% |
100% |
D D |
79% |
71% |
|
|
Georgia |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
79% |
71% |
71% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Georgia |
6 |
O
UU |
Open
(Johnny Isakson) (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1999 |
75% |
80% |
R R |
65% |
68% |
|
|
Georgia |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
35% |
32% |
32% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
7 |
UU |
John
Linder (R) |
Landslide |
R |
74% |
1992 |
100% |
79% |
R R |
63% |
71% |
|
|
Georgia |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
29% |
29% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
8 |
O |
Open
(Mac Collins) (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
1992 |
64% |
78% |
R R |
55% |
69% |
|
|
Georgia |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
31% |
31% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
9 |
UU |
Charlie
Norwood (R) |
Landslide |
R |
69% |
1994 |
63% |
73% |
R R |
53% |
67% |
|
|
Georgia |
9 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
33% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
10 |
U |
Nathan
Deal (R) |
Landslide |
R |
72% |
1992 |
75% |
100% |
R R |
70% |
70% |
|
|
Georgia |
10 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
30% |
30% |
30% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
11 |
|
Phil
Gingrey (R) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
2002 |
100% |
52% |
R R |
59% |
51% |
|
|
Georgia |
11 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
41% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Georgia |
12 |
|
Max
Burns (R) |
Competitive |
|
48% |
2002 |
|
55% |
R |
New |
55% |
|
|
Georgia |
12 |
Competitive |
|
|
R |
New |
55% |
55% |
New |
D |
D |
|
Georgia |
13 |
U |
David
Scott (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
2002 |
|
60% |
D |
New |
58% |
|
|
Georgia |
13 |
D |
D |
|
D |
New |
58% |
58% |
New |
D |
D |
|
Hawaii |
1 |
|
Neil
Abercrombie (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1990 |
69% |
73% |
D D |
57% |
57% |
|
|
Hawaii |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
57% |
57% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Hawaii |
2 |
V |
Edward
Case (D) |
Competitive |
|
47% |
2003 |
62% |
42% |
D D |
58% |
58% |
|
|
Hawaii |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
58% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Idaho |
1 |
UU |
C.L.
"Butch" Otter (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
2000 |
65% |
59% |
R R |
70% |
71% |
|
|
Idaho |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
30% |
29% |
29% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Idaho |
2 |
|
Mike
Simpson (R) |
Landslide |
R |
67% |
1998 |
71% |
68% |
R R |
73% |
71% |
|
|
Idaho |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
27% |
29% |
29% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
1 |
|
Bobby
Rush (D) |
Landslide |
D |
80% |
1992 |
88% |
81% |
D D |
88% |
85% |
|
|
Illinois |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
88% |
85% |
85% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
2 |
UU |
Jesse
Jackson Jr. (D) |
Landslide |
D |
81% |
1995 |
90% |
82% |
D D |
89% |
84% |
|
|
Illinois |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
89% |
84% |
84% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
3 |
O |
(Open)
William Lipinski (D) |
Tight |
D |
54% |
1982 |
76% |
100% |
D D |
57% |
59% |
|
|
Illinois |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
57% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
4 |
|
Luis
Gutierrez (D) |
Landslide |
D |
79% |
1992 |
89% |
80% |
D D |
79% |
81% |
|
|
Illinois |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
79% |
81% |
81% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
5 |
|
Rahm
Emanuel (D) |
Landslide |
D |
67% |
2002 |
87% |
67% |
D D |
64% |
68% |
|
|
Illinois |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
64% |
68% |
68% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
6 |
|
Henry
Hyde (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1974 |
59% |
65% |
R R |
54% |
55% |
|
|
Illinois |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
7 |
|
Danny
Davis (D) |
Landslide |
D |
82% |
1996 |
86% |
83% |
D D |
84% |
85% |
|
|
Illinois |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
84% |
85% |
85% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
8 |
|
Philip
Crane (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1969 |
61% |
57% |
R R |
57% |
57% |
|
|
Illinois |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
9 |
UU |
Janice
Schakowsky (D) |
Landslide |
D |
69% |
1998 |
76% |
70% |
D D |
71% |
69% |
|
|
Illinois |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
71% |
69% |
69% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
10 |
|
Mark
Kirk (R) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
2000 |
51% |
69% |
R R |
54% |
52% |
|
|
Illinois |
10 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
54% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
11 |
|
Jerry
Weller (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
1994 |
56% |
64% |
R R |
54% |
51% |
|
|
Illinois |
11 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
54% |
49% |
49% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
12 |
|
Jerry
Costello (D) |
Landslide |
D |
61% |
1988 |
100% |
69% |
D D |
56% |
55% |
|
|
Illinois |
12 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
56% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
13 |
|
Judy
Biggert (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1998 |
66% |
70% |
R R |
56% |
56% |
|
|
Illinois |
13 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
14 |
UU |
Dennis
Hastert (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1986 |
74% |
74% |
R R |
57% |
56% |
|
|
Illinois |
14 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
15 |
|
Timothy
Johnson (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
2000 |
53% |
65% |
R R |
55% |
56% |
|
|
Illinois |
15 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
16 |
|
Donald
Manzullo (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1992 |
67% |
71% |
R R |
56% |
55% |
|
|
|
|
Illinois |
16 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
17 |
|
Lane
Evans (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1982 |
55% |
62% |
D D |
53% |
55% |
|
|
Illinois |
17 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Illinois |
18 |
|
Ray
LaHood (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1994 |
67% |
100% |
R R |
56% |
55% |
|
|
Illinois |
18 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Illinois |
19 |
|
John
Shimkus (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1996 |
65% |
55% |
R R |
53% |
57% |
|
|
Illinois |
19 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
Indiana |
1 |
|
Peter
Visclosky (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1984 |
72% |
67% |
D D |
61% |
58% |
|
|
Indiana |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
61% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Indiana |
2 |
|
Chris
Chocola (R) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
2002 |
52% |
50% |
D R |
64% |
54% |
|
|
Indiana |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
R |
36% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Indiana |
3 |
|
Mark
Souder (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1994 |
62% |
63% |
R R |
64% |
66% |
|
|
Indiana |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
36% |
34% |
34% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Indiana |
4 |
|
Steve
Buyer (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
1992 |
61% |
71% |
R R |
62% |
67% |
|
|
Indiana |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
33% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Indiana |
5 |
|
Dan
Burton (R) |
Landslide |
R |
69% |
1982 |
70% |
72% |
R R |
69% |
69% |
|
|
Indiana |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
31% |
31% |
31% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Indiana |
6 |
|
Mike
Pence (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
2000 |
51% |
64% |
R R |
57% |
59% |
|
|
Indiana |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Indiana |
7 |
|
Julia
Carson (D) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
1996 |
59% |
53% |
D D |
61% |
57% |
|
|
Indiana |
7 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
61% |
57% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Indiana |
8 |
|
John
Hostettler (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1994 |
53% |
51% |
R R |
57% |
57% |
|
|
Indiana |
8 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
43% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Indiana |
9 |
|
Baron
Hill (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
47% |
1998 |
54% |
51% |
D D |
58% |
56% |
|
|
Indiana |
9 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
42% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Iowa |
1 |
|
Jim
Nussle (R) |
Competitive |
|
49% |
1990 |
55% |
57% |
R R |
53% |
54% |
|
|
Iowa |
1 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
53% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Iowa |
2 |
|
Jim
Leach (R) |
Competitive |
|
48% |
1976 |
62% |
52% |
R R |
55% |
55% |
|
|
Iowa |
2 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
55% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Iowa |
3 |
|
Leonard
Boswell (D) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
1996 |
63% |
53% |
D D |
51% |
51% |
|
|
Iowa |
3 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
49% |
51% |
51% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Iowa |
4 |
|
Tom
Latham (R) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
1994 |
69% |
55% |
R R |
56% |
50% |
|
|
Iowa |
4 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
44% |
50% |
50% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Iowa |
5 |
|
Steve
King (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
2002 |
61% |
62% |
R R |
56% |
59% |
|
|
Iowa |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kansas |
1 |
U |
Jerry
Moran (R) |
Landslide |
R |
77% |
1996 |
89% |
91% |
R R |
70% |
70% |
|
|
Kansas |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
30% |
30% |
30% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kansas |
2 |
|
Jim
Ryun (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1996 |
67% |
60% |
R R |
57% |
58% |
|
|
Kansas |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kansas |
3 |
|
Dennis
Moore (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
46% |
1998 |
50% |
50% |
D D |
56% |
56% |
|
|
Kansas |
3 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
44% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kansas |
4 |
|
Todd
Tiahrt (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1994 |
54% |
61% |
R R |
61% |
62% |
|
|
Kansas |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kentucky |
1 |
|
Edward
Whitfield (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1994 |
58% |
65% |
R R |
57% |
58% |
|
|
Kentucky |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kentucky |
2 |
|
Ron
Lewis (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
1994 |
68% |
70% |
R R |
62% |
62% |
|
|
Kentucky |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kentucky |
3 |
|
Anne
Northup (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1996 |
53% |
52% |
R R |
53% |
52% |
|
|
Kentucky |
3 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
53% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Kentucky |
4 |
O |
Open
(Kenneth Lucas) (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
44% |
1998 |
54% |
51% |
D D |
61% |
62% |
|
|
Kentucky |
4 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
39% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kentucky |
5 |
UU |
Harold
Rogers (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1980 |
74% |
78% |
R R |
56% |
57% |
|
|
Kentucky |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Kentucky |
6 |
V |
Ben
Chandler (D) |
Competitive |
|
47% |
2004 |
53% |
55% |
R D |
56% |
57% |
|
|
Kentucky |
6 |
Competitive |
|
R |
D |
44% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Louisiana |
1 |
O |
Open
(David Vitter) (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1999 |
84% |
97% |
R R |
66% |
67% |
|
|
Louisiana |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
34% |
33% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Louisiana |
2 |
|
William
Jefferson (D) |
Landslide |
D |
81% |
1990 |
100% |
86% |
D D |
79% |
77% |
|
|
Louisiana |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
79% |
77% |
77% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Louisiana |
3 |
O |
Open
(Billy Tauzin) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1980 |
78% |
87% |
R R |
53% |
53% |
|
|
Louisiana |
3 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
47% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Louisiana |
4 |
U |
Jim
McCrery (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1988 |
71% |
72% |
R R |
54% |
55% |
|
|
Louisiana |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Louisiana |
5 |
|
Rodney
Alexander (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
2002 |
69% |
50% |
R R |
60% |
59% |
|
|
Louisiana |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Louisiana |
6 |
|
Richard
Baker (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1986 |
68% |
84% |
R R |
54% |
55% |
|
|
Louisiana |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Louisiana |
7 |
O |
Open
(Chris John) (D) |
Competitive |
|
49% |
1996 |
83% |
87% |
D D |
56% |
57% |
|
|
Louisiana |
7 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
44% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Maine |
1 |
|
Tom
Allen (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
55% |
1996 |
60% |
64% |
D D |
53% |
52% |
|
|
Maine |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Maine |
2 |
|
Michael
Michaud (D) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
2002 |
73% |
52% |
D D |
51% |
51% |
|
|
Maine |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
49% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
Maryland |
1 |
|
Wayne
Gilchrest (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1990 |
64% |
77% |
R R |
54% |
59% |
|
|
|
|
Maryland |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Maryland |
2 |
|
C.A.
"Dutch" Ruppersberger (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
2002 |
69% |
54% |
R D |
57% |
58% |
|
|
Maryland |
2 |
D |
D |
R |
D |
43% |
58% |
58% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Maryland |
3 |
|
Benjamin
Cardin (D) |
Landslide |
D |
60% |
1986 |
76% |
66% |
D D |
65% |
57% |
|
|
Maryland |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
57% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Maryland |
4 |
|
Albert
Wynn (D) |
Landslide |
D |
79% |
1992 |
87% |
79% |
D D |
86% |
78% |
|
|
Maryland |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
86% |
78% |
78% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Maryland |
5 |
|
Steny
Hoyer (D) |
Landslide |
D |
61% |
1981 |
65% |
69% |
D D |
57% |
58% |
|
|
Maryland |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
57% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Maryland |
6 |
|
Roscoe
Bartlett (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1992 |
61% |
66% |
R R |
60% |
62% |
|
|
Maryland |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Maryland |
7 |
|
Elijah
Cummings (D) |
Landslide |
D |
73% |
1996 |
87% |
74% |
D D |
86% |
74% |
|
|
Maryland |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
86% |
74% |
74% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Maryland |
8 |
|
Chris
Van Hollen (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
57% |
2002 |
52% |
52% |
R D |
62% |
67% |
|
|
Maryland |
8 |
D |
D |
R |
D |
62% |
67% |
67% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
1 |
U |
John
Olver (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1991 |
68% |
68% |
D D |
59% |
58% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
2 |
UU |
Richard
Neal (D) |
Landslide |
D |
75% |
1988 |
99% |
100% |
D D |
60% |
59% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
60% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
3 |
|
Jim
McGovern (D) |
Landslide |
D |
76% |
1996 |
99% |
100% |
D D |
60% |
60% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
60% |
60% |
60% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
4 |
UU |
Barney
Frank (D) |
Landslide |
D |
70% |
1980 |
75% |
100% |
D D |
65% |
66% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
66% |
66% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
5 |
|
Martin
Meehan (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
1992 |
98% |
60% |
D D |
58% |
58% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
58% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
6 |
|
John
Tierney (D) |
Landslide |
D |
63% |
1996 |
71% |
68% |
D D |
59% |
59% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
6 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
7 |
|
Edward
Markey (D) |
Landslide |
D |
79% |
1976 |
99% |
100% |
D D |
65% |
65% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
65% |
65% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
8 |
UU |
Michael
Capuano (D) |
Landslide |
D |
85% |
1998 |
99% |
100% |
D D |
74% |
75% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
8 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
74% |
75% |
75% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
9 |
UU |
Stephen
Lynch (D) |
Landslide |
D |
74% |
2001 |
61% |
100% |
D D |
65% |
61% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
61% |
61% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Massachusetts |
10 |
|
Bill
Delahunt (D) |
Landslide |
D |
61% |
1996 |
74% |
69% |
D D |
57% |
56% |
|
|
Massachusetts |
10 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
57% |
56% |
56% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Michigan |
1 |
|
Bart
Stupak (D) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
1992 |
58% |
68% |
D D |
55% |
53% |
|
|
Michigan |
1 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
45% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
2 |
|
Peter
Hoekstra (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1992 |
64% |
70% |
R R |
60% |
60% |
|
|
Michigan |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
3 |
|
Vern
Ehlers (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1993 |
65% |
70% |
R R |
60% |
60% |
|
|
Michigan |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
4 |
|
Dave
Camp (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1990 |
68% |
68% |
R R |
54% |
55% |
|
|
Michigan |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
5 |
|
Dale
Kildee (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1976 |
61% |
92% |
D D |
55% |
62% |
|
|
Michigan |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
55% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Michigan |
6 |
|
Fred
Upton (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1986 |
68% |
69% |
R R |
53% |
53% |
|
|
Michigan |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
7 |
O |
Open
(Nick Smith) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1992 |
61% |
60% |
R R |
52% |
52% |
|
|
Michigan |
7 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
48% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
8 |
|
Mike
Rogers (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
2000 |
49% |
68% |
R R |
52% |
52% |
|
|
Michigan |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
52% |
48% |
48% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
9 |
|
Joe
Knollenberg (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1992 |
56% |
58% |
R R |
52% |
51% |
|
|
Michigan |
9 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
52% |
49% |
49% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
10 |
|
Candice
Miller (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
2002 |
64% |
63% |
D R |
50% |
54% |
|
|
Michigan |
10 |
R |
R |
D |
R |
50% |
46% |
46% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
11 |
|
Thaddeus
McCotter (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
2002 |
56% |
57% |
R R |
52% |
51% |
|
|
Michigan |
11 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
52% |
49% |
49% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Michigan |
12 |
|
Sander
Levin (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1982 |
64% |
68% |
D D |
56% |
63% |
|
|
Michigan |
12 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
56% |
63% |
63% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Michigan |
13 |
|
Carolyn
Kilpatrick (D) |
Landslide |
D |
80% |
1996 |
89% |
92% |
D D |
90% |
82% |
|
|
Michigan |
13 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
90% |
82% |
82% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Michigan |
14 |
|
John
Conyers (D) |
Landslide |
D |
80% |
1964 |
89% |
83% |
D D |
91% |
83% |
|
|
Michigan |
14 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
91% |
83% |
83% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Michigan |
15 |
|
John
Dingell (D) |
Landslide |
D |
66% |
1955 |
71% |
72% |
D D |
55% |
61% |
|
|
Michigan |
15 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
55% |
61% |
61% |
D |
D |
D |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
Minnesota |
1 |
|
Gil
Gutknecht (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
1994 |
56% |
62% |
R R |
52% |
54% |
|
|
Minnesota |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
48% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Minnesota |
2 |
|
John
Kline (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
2002 |
50% |
53% |
D R |
51% |
54% |
|
|
Minnesota |
2 |
R |
R |
D |
R |
49% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Minnesota |
3 |
|
Jim
Ramstad (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1990 |
68% |
72% |
R R |
53% |
52% |
|
|
Minnesota |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Minnesota |
4 |
|
Betty
McCollum (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
2000 |
48% |
62% |
D D |
59% |
58% |
|
|
Minnesota |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Minnesota |
5 |
|
Martin
Olav Sabo (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1978 |
69% |
67% |
D D |
65% |
64% |
|
|
Minnesota |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
64% |
64% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Minnesota |
6 |
|
Mark
Kennedy (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
2000 |
48% |
57% |
R R |
57% |
56% |
|
|
Minnesota |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Minnesota |
7 |
|
Collin
Peterson (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1990 |
69% |
65% |
D D |
58% |
58% |
|
|
Minnesota |
7 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
42% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Minnesota |
8 |
|
James
Oberstar (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
57% |
1974 |
68% |
69% |
D D |
52% |
51% |
|
|
Minnesota |
8 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
52% |
51% |
51% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Mississippi |
1 |
U |
Roger
Wicker (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1994 |
70% |
71% |
R R |
60% |
59% |
|
|
|
|
Mississippi |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Mississippi |
2 |
U |
Bennie
Thompson (D) |
Tight |
D |
54% |
1993 |
65% |
55% |
D D |
62% |
58% |
|
|
Mississippi |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
62% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Mississippi |
3 |
U |
Chip
Pickering (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1996 |
73% |
64% |
R R |
65% |
64% |
|
|
Mississippi |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
35% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Mississippi |
4 |
|
Gene
Taylor (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1989 |
79% |
75% |
D D |
65% |
65% |
|
|
Mississippi |
4 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
35% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Missouri |
1 |
|
Wm.
Lacy Clay (D) |
Landslide |
D |
69% |
2000 |
75% |
70% |
D D |
78% |
74% |
|
|
Missouri |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
78% |
74% |
74% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Missouri |
2 |
|
W.
Todd Akin (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
2000 |
55% |
67% |
R R |
55% |
59% |
|
|
Missouri |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Missouri |
3 |
O |
Open
(Richard Gephardt) (D) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1976 |
58% |
59% |
D D |
52% |
56% |
|
|
Missouri |
3 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
52% |
56% |
56% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Missouri |
4 |
|
Ike
Skelton (D) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
1976 |
67% |
68% |
D D |
59% |
59% |
|
|
Missouri |
4 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
41% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Missouri |
5 |
O |
Open
(Karen McCarthy) (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1994 |
69% |
66% |
D D |
63% |
62% |
|
|
Missouri |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
63% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Missouri |
6 |
|
Sam
Graves (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
2000 |
51% |
63% |
R R |
55% |
54% |
|
|
Missouri |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Missouri |
7 |
|
Roy
Blunt (R) |
Landslide |
R |
67% |
1996 |
74% |
74% |
R R |
63% |
63% |
|
|
Missouri |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
37% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Missouri |
8 |
|
Jo
Ann Emerson (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1996 |
69% |
72% |
R R |
61% |
60% |
|
|
Missouri |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Missouri |
9 |
|
Kenny
Hulshof (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1996 |
59% |
68% |
R R |
56% |
56% |
|
|
Missouri |
9 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Montana |
1 |
|
Dennis
Rehberg (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
2000 |
51% |
65% |
R R |
65% |
65% |
|
|
Montana |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
35% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Nebraska |
1 |
O |
Open
(Doug Bereuter) (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1978 |
68% |
85% |
R R |
62% |
62% |
|
|
Nebraska |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Nebraska |
2 |
|
Lee
Terry (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1998 |
66% |
63% |
R R |
60% |
60% |
|
|
Nebraska |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Nebraska |
3 |
|
Tom
Osborn (R) |
Landslide |
R |
76% |
2000 |
82% |
93% |
R R |
73% |
73% |
|
|
Nebraska |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
27% |
27% |
27% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Nevada |
1 |
|
Shelley
Berkley (D) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1998 |
52% |
54% |
D D |
56% |
58% |
|
|
Nevada |
1 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
56% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Nevada |
2 |
|
Jim
Gibbons (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
1996 |
65% |
74% |
R R |
57% |
61% |
|
|
Nevada |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
43% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Nevada |
3 |
|
Joe
Porter (R) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
2002 |
|
56% |
R |
New |
50% |
|
|
Nevada |
3 |
Competitive |
|
|
R |
New |
50% |
50% |
New |
D |
D |
|
New Hampshire |
1 |
|
Jeb
Bradley (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
2002 |
53% |
58% |
R R |
52% |
52% |
|
|
New Hampshire |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
48% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
Hampshire |
2 |
|
Charles
Bass (R) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1994 |
56% |
57% |
R R |
50% |
50% |
|
|
New Hampshire |
2 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
50% |
50% |
50% |
R |
R |
R |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
New Jersey |
1 |
|
Robert
Andrews (D) |
Landslide |
D |
68% |
1990 |
76% |
93% |
D D |
68% |
65% |
|
|
New Jersey |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
68% |
65% |
65% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
2 |
|
Frank
LoBiondo (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1994 |
66% |
69% |
R R |
58% |
56% |
|
|
New Jersey |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
58% |
56% |
56% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
3 |
|
James
Saxton (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1984 |
57% |
64% |
R R |
57% |
55% |
|
|
New Jersey |
3 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
57% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
4 |
|
Christopher
Smith (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
1980 |
63% |
66% |
R R |
56% |
52% |
|
|
New Jersey |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
56% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
5 |
|
Scott
Garrett (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
2002 |
65% |
60% |
R R |
52% |
54% |
|
|
New Jersey |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
48% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
Jersey |
6 |
|
Frank
Pallone (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1988 |
68% |
67% |
D D |
62% |
63% |
|
|
New Jersey |
6 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
62% |
63% |
63% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
7 |
|
Mike
Ferguson (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
2000 |
52% |
58% |
R R |
58% |
51% |
|
|
New Jersey |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
58% |
49% |
49% |
D |
R |
R |
|
New
Jersey |
8 |
|
Bill
Pascrell, Jr. (D) |
Landslide |
D |
63% |
1996 |
67% |
67% |
D D |
64% |
62% |
|
|
New Jersey |
8 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
64% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
9 |
|
Steve
Rothman (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
1996 |
68% |
70% |
D D |
67% |
65% |
|
|
New Jersey |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
67% |
65% |
65% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
10 |
U |
Donald
Payne (D) |
Landslide |
D |
83% |
1988 |
88% |
85% |
D D |
88% |
84% |
|
|
New Jersey |
10 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
88% |
84% |
84% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
11 |
|
Rodney
Frelinghuysen (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1994 |
68% |
72% |
R R |
54% |
56% |
|
|
New Jersey |
11 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
Jersey |
12 |
|
Rush
Holt (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1998 |
49% |
60% |
D D |
54% |
58% |
|
|
New Jersey |
12 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
54% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
Jersey |
13 |
|
Robert
Menendez (D) |
Landslide |
D |
75% |
1992 |
79% |
78% |
D D |
76% |
74% |
|
|
New Jersey |
13 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
76% |
74% |
74% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New Mexico |
1 |
|
Heather
Wilson (R) |
Competitive |
|
49% |
1998 |
50% |
55% |
R R |
50% |
50% |
|
|
New Mexico |
1 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
50% |
50% |
50% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
Mexico |
2 |
|
Steve
Pearce (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
2002 |
58% |
56% |
R R |
55% |
55% |
|
|
New Mexico |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
Mexico |
3 |
|
Thomas
Udall (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
1998 |
67% |
100% |
D D |
54% |
53% |
|
|
New Mexico |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
54% |
53% |
53% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New York |
1 |
|
Timothy
Bishop (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
2002 |
56% |
50% |
R D |
55% |
54% |
|
|
New York |
1 |
Competitive |
|
R |
D |
55% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
2 |
|
Steve
Israel (D) |
Tight |
D |
54% |
2000 |
48% |
58% |
D D |
58% |
59% |
|
|
New York |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
58% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
3 |
|
Peter
King (R) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1992 |
60% |
72% |
R R |
57% |
54% |
|
|
|
|
New York |
3 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
57% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
4 |
|
Carolyn
McCarthy (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
55% |
1996 |
61% |
56% |
D D |
61% |
61% |
|
|
New York |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
61% |
61% |
61% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
5 |
|
Gary
Ackerman (D) |
Landslide |
D |
70% |
1983 |
68% |
93% |
D D |
64% |
69% |
|
|
New York |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
64% |
69% |
69% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
6 |
2 UU |
Gregory
Meeks (D) |
Landslide |
D |
91% |
1998 |
100% |
96% |
D D |
89% |
88% |
|
|
New York |
6 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
89% |
88% |
88% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
7 |
|
Joseph
Crowley (D) |
Landslide |
D |
72% |
1998 |
72% |
73% |
D D |
73% |
77% |
|
|
New York |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
73% |
77% |
77% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
8 |
|
Jerrold
Nadler (D) |
Landslide |
D |
73% |
1992 |
81% |
74% |
D D |
78% |
75% |
|
|
New York |
8 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
78% |
75% |
75% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
9 |
|
Anthony
Weiner (D) |
Landslide |
D |
64% |
1998 |
68% |
65% |
D D |
69% |
68% |
|
|
New York |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
69% |
68% |
68% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
10 |
|
Ed
Towns (D) |
Landslide |
D |
89% |
1982 |
90% |
98% |
D D |
90% |
89% |
|
|
New York |
10 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
90% |
89% |
89% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
11 |
U |
Major
Owens (D) |
Landslide |
D |
80% |
1982 |
87% |
86% |
D D |
91% |
84% |
|
|
New York |
11 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
91% |
84% |
84% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
12 |
|
Nydia
Velazquez (D) |
Landslide |
D |
80% |
1992 |
87% |
95% |
D D |
82% |
78% |
|
|
New York |
12 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
82% |
78% |
78% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
13 |
|
Vito
Fossella (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1997 |
65% |
70% |
R R |
55% |
54% |
|
|
New York |
13 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
55% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
14 |
|
Carolyn
Maloney (D) |
Landslide |
D |
72% |
1992 |
74% |
75% |
D D |
73% |
71% |
|
|
New York |
14 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
73% |
71% |
71% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
15 |
|
Charles
Rangel (D) |
Landslide |
D |
86% |
1970 |
92% |
87% |
D D |
92% |
88% |
|
|
New York |
15 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
92% |
88% |
88% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
16 |
|
Jose
Serrano (D) |
Landslide |
D |
91% |
1990 |
96% |
92% |
D D |
94% |
94% |
|
|
New York |
16 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
94% |
94% |
94% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
17 |
|
Eliot
Engel (D) |
Landslide |
D |
61% |
1988 |
90% |
62% |
D D |
88% |
71% |
|
|
New York |
17 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
88% |
71% |
71% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
18 |
|
Nita
Lowey (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1988 |
67% |
92% |
D D |
62% |
60% |
|
|
New York |
18 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
62% |
60% |
60% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
19 |
|
Sue
Kelly (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1994 |
61% |
70% |
R R |
52% |
52% |
|
|
New York |
19 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
52% |
48% |
48% |
D |
R |
R |
|
New
York |
20 |
|
John
Sweeney (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1998 |
68% |
73% |
R R |
54% |
54% |
|
|
New York |
20 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
York |
21 |
|
Michael
McNulty (D) |
Landslide |
D |
64% |
1988 |
74% |
75% |
D D |
59% |
58% |
|
|
New York |
21 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
22 |
|
Maurice
Hinchey (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1992 |
62% |
64% |
D D |
53% |
53% |
|
|
New York |
22 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
53% |
53% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
23 |
|
John
McHugh (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1992 |
74% |
100% |
R R |
50% |
51% |
|
|
New York |
23 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
50% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
York |
24 |
|
Sherwood
Boehlert (R) |
Tight |
R |
54% |
1982 |
61% |
71% |
R R |
53% |
51% |
|
|
New York |
24 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
York |
25 |
U |
James
Walsh (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1988 |
69% |
72% |
R R |
55% |
52% |
|
|
New York |
25 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
55% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
26 |
|
Thomas
Reynolds (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1998 |
69% |
74% |
R R |
56% |
54% |
|
|
New York |
26 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
New
York |
27 |
O |
Open
(Jack Quinn) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1992 |
67% |
69% |
R R |
62% |
55% |
|
|
New York |
27 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
62% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
28 |
|
Louise
Slaughter (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1986 |
66% |
62% |
D D |
55% |
61% |
|
|
New York |
28 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
55% |
61% |
61% |
D |
D |
D |
|
New
York |
29 |
O |
Open
(Amo Houghton) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1986 |
77% |
73% |
R R |
55% |
56% |
|
|
New York |
29 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
45% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
North Carolina |
1 |
V |
G.
K. Butterfield (D) |
Landslide |
D |
61% |
2002 |
66% |
64% |
D D |
59% |
59% |
|
|
North Carolina |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
North
Carolina |
2 |
|
Bob
Etheridge (D) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1996 |
58% |
65% |
D D |
54% |
52% |
|
|
North Carolina |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
46% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
3 |
|
Walter
Jones, Jr. (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
1994 |
61% |
91% |
R R |
60% |
63% |
|
|
North Carolina |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
37% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
4 |
|
David
Price (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
57% |
1996 |
62% |
61% |
D D |
53% |
55% |
|
|
North Carolina |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
North
Carolina |
5 |
O |
Open
(Richard Burr) (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1994 |
93% |
70% |
R R |
61% |
65% |
|
|
North Carolina |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
6 |
2 |
Howard
Coble (R) |
Landslide |
R |
69% |
1984 |
91% |
90% |
R R |
63% |
66% |
|
|
North Carolina |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
34% |
34% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
7 |
|
Mike
McIntyre (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
58% |
1996 |
70% |
71% |
D D |
51% |
51% |
|
|
North Carolina |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
49% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
8 |
|
Robin
Hayes (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
1998 |
55% |
54% |
R R |
54% |
53% |
|
|
North Carolina |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
9 |
|
Sue
Myrick (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
1994 |
69% |
72% |
R R |
60% |
62% |
|
|
North Carolina |
9 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
10 |
O |
Open
(Cass Ballenger) (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1986 |
68% |
59% |
R R |
66% |
64% |
|
|
North Carolina |
10 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
34% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
11 |
|
Charles
Taylor (R) |
Tight |
R |
55% |
1990 |
55% |
56% |
R R |
58% |
59% |
|
|
|
|
North Carolina |
11 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
North
Carolina |
12 |
|
Melvin
Watt (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
1992 |
65% |
65% |
D D |
63% |
59% |
|
|
North Carolina |
12 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
63% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
North
Carolina |
13 |
|
Brad
Miller (D) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
2002 |
|
55% |
D |
New |
51% |
|
|
North Carolina |
13 |
Competitive |
|
|
D |
New |
51% |
51% |
New |
D |
D |
|
North
Dakota |
1 |
|
Earl
Pomeroy (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
42% |
1992 |
53% |
52% |
D D |
65% |
65% |
|
|
North Dakota |
1 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
35% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
1 |
|
Steve
Chabot (R) |
Tight |
R |
55% |
1994 |
53% |
65% |
R R |
52% |
53% |
|
|
Ohio |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
52% |
47% |
47% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
2 |
|
Rob
Portman (R) |
Landslide |
R |
67% |
1993 |
74% |
74% |
R R |
66% |
64% |
|
|
Ohio |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
34% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
3 |
|
Michael
Turner (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
2002 |
83% |
59% |
D R |
52% |
53% |
|
|
Ohio |
3 |
R |
R |
D |
R |
52% |
47% |
47% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
4 |
|
Michael
Oxley (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
1981 |
67% |
67% |
R R |
63% |
64% |
|
|
Ohio |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
5 |
|
Paul
Gilmor (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1988 |
70% |
67% |
R R |
58% |
61% |
|
|
Ohio |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
6 |
UU |
Ted
Strickland (D) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1996 |
58% |
59% |
D D |
57% |
51% |
|
|
Ohio |
6 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
43% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
7 |
|
David
Hobson (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1990 |
68% |
68% |
R R |
59% |
57% |
|
|
Ohio |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
8 |
|
John
Boehner (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
1990 |
71% |
71% |
R R |
64% |
62% |
|
|
Ohio |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
36% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
9 |
|
Marcy
Kaptur (D) |
Landslide |
D |
64% |
1982 |
75% |
74% |
D D |
57% |
57% |
|
|
Ohio |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
57% |
57% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Ohio |
10 |
|
Dennis
Kucinich (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1996 |
75% |
74% |
D D |
56% |
55% |
|
|
Ohio |
10 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
56% |
55% |
55% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Ohio |
11 |
U |
Stephanie
T. Jones (D) |
Landslide |
D |
75% |
1998 |
85% |
76% |
D D |
85% |
81% |
|
|
Ohio |
11 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
85% |
81% |
81% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Ohio |
12 |
|
Patrick
Tiberi (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
2000 |
53% |
65% |
R R |
52% |
53% |
|
|
Ohio |
12 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
48% |
47% |
47% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
13 |
|
Sherrod
Brown (D) |
Landslide |
D |
60% |
1992 |
65% |
69% |
D D |
52% |
54% |
|
|
Ohio |
13 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
48% |
54% |
54% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Ohio |
14 |
|
Steve
LaTourette (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1994 |
69% |
72% |
R R |
51% |
54% |
|
|
Ohio |
14 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
51% |
46% |
46% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
15 |
|
Deborah
Pryce (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1992 |
67% |
67% |
R R |
53% |
55% |
|
|
Ohio |
15 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
16 |
|
Ralph
Regula (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1972 |
69% |
69% |
R R |
56% |
56% |
|
|
Ohio |
16 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Ohio |
17 |
|
Timothy
Ryan (D) |
Tight |
D |
55% |
2002 |
50% |
51% |
D D |
60% |
62% |
|
|
Ohio |
17 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
60% |
62% |
62% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Ohio |
18 |
|
Bob
Ney (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1994 |
64% |
100% |
R R |
53% |
58% |
|
|
Ohio |
18 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
47% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
Oklahoma |
1 |
|
John
Sullivan (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
2002 |
54% |
56% |
R R |
61% |
61% |
|
|
Oklahoma |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Oklahoma |
2 |
O |
Open
(Brad Carson) (D) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
2000 |
55% |
74% |
D D |
52% |
52% |
|
|
Oklahoma |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
48% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Oklahoma |
3 |
U |
Frank
Lucas (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1994 |
59% |
76% |
R R |
60% |
65% |
|
|
Oklahoma |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Oklahoma |
4 |
U |
Tom
Cole (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
2002 |
65% |
54% |
R R |
60% |
60% |
|
|
Oklahoma |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Oklahoma |
5 |
|
Ernest
Istook (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1992 |
68% |
62% |
R R |
68% |
61% |
|
|
Oklahoma |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
32% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Oregon |
1 |
|
David
Wu (D) |
Tight |
D |
54% |
1998 |
58% |
63% |
D D |
53% |
52% |
|
|
Oregon |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Oregon |
2 |
|
Greg
Walden (R) |
Landslide |
R |
67% |
1998 |
74% |
72% |
R R |
63% |
64% |
|
|
Oregon |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Oregon |
3 |
|
Earl
Blumenauer (D) |
Landslide |
D |
64% |
1996 |
67% |
67% |
D D |
63% |
63% |
|
|
Oregon |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
63% |
63% |
63% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Oregon |
4 |
|
Peter
DeFazio (D) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1986 |
68% |
64% |
D D |
54% |
54% |
|
|
Oregon |
4 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
46% |
46% |
46% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Oregon |
5 |
|
Darlene
Hooley (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1996 |
57% |
55% |
D D |
52% |
52% |
|
|
Oregon |
5 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
48% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
1 |
|
Robert
Brady (D) |
Landslide |
D |
86% |
1998 |
88% |
86% |
D D |
87% |
86% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
87% |
86% |
86% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
2 |
|
Chaka
Fattah (D) |
Landslide |
D |
72% |
1994 |
98% |
73% |
D D |
90% |
89% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
90% |
89% |
89% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
3 |
|
Phil
English (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
1994 |
61% |
78% |
R R |
50% |
52% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
50% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
4 |
|
Melissa
Hart (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
56% |
2000 |
59% |
64% |
R R |
51% |
52% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
49% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
5 |
2
UU |
John
Peterson (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1996 |
83% |
87% |
R R |
60% |
60% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
6 |
|
Jim
Gerlach (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
2002 |
66% |
51% |
D R |
54% |
51% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
6 |
Competitive |
|
D |
R |
46% |
51% |
51% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
7 |
|
Curt
Weldon (R) |
Tight |
R |
55% |
1986 |
65% |
66% |
R R |
52% |
52% |
|
|
|
|
Pennsylvania |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
52% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
8 |
O |
Open
(James Greenwood) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1992 |
59% |
63% |
R R |
52% |
53% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
8 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
52% |
53% |
53% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
9 |
|
Bill
Shuster (R) |
Landslide |
R |
66% |
2001 |
52% |
71% |
R R |
66% |
64% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
9 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
34% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
10 |
UU |
Donald
Sherwood (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1998 |
53% |
93% |
R R |
51% |
58% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
10 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
49% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
11 |
UU |
Paul
Kanjorski (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1984 |
66% |
56% |
D D |
52% |
56% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
11 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
52% |
56% |
56% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
12 |
UU |
John
Murtha (D) |
Landslide |
D |
63% |
1974 |
71% |
74% |
D D |
53% |
56% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
12 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
47% |
56% |
56% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
13 |
O |
Open
(Joe Hoeffel) (D) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
1998 |
53% |
51% |
D D |
56% |
57% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
13 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
56% |
57% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
14 |
UU |
Mike
Doyle (D) |
Landslide |
D |
75% |
1994 |
69% |
100% |
D D |
59% |
71% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
14 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
59% |
71% |
71% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
15 |
O |
Open
(Pat Toomey) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1998 |
53% |
57% |
R R |
51% |
50% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
15 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
51% |
50% |
50% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Pennsylvania |
16 |
|
Joseph
Pitts (R) |
Landslide |
R |
66% |
1996 |
67% |
88% |
R R |
59% |
63% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
16 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
37% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
17 |
|
Tim
Holden (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
46% |
1992 |
72% |
51% |
D D |
54% |
57% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
17 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
46% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
18 |
|
Tim
Murphy (R) |
Tight |
R |
55% |
2002 |
69% |
60% |
D R |
53% |
52% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
18 |
R |
R |
D |
R |
53% |
48% |
48% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Pennsylvania |
19 |
UU |
Todd
Russell Platts (R) |
Landslide |
R |
66% |
2000 |
73% |
91% |
R R |
62% |
62% |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
19 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
38% |
38% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Rhode Island |
1 |
|
Patrick
Kennedy (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
1994 |
67% |
60% |
D D |
65% |
64% |
|
|
Rhode Island |
1 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
64% |
64% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Rhode
Island |
2 |
|
James
Langevin (D) |
Landslide |
D |
65% |
2000 |
62% |
76% |
D D |
62% |
61% |
|
|
Rhode Island |
2 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
62% |
61% |
61% |
D |
D |
D |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
South Carolina |
1 |
U |
Henry
Brown, Jr. (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
2000 |
60% |
90% |
R R |
60% |
60% |
|
|
South Carolina |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
40% |
40% |
R |
R |
R |
|
South
Carolina |
2 |
U |
Joe
Wilson (R) |
Landslide |
R |
68% |
2001 |
75% |
84% |
R R |
58% |
59% |
|
|
South Carolina |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
South
Carolina |
3 |
U |
J.
Gresham Barrett (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
2002 |
68% |
67% |
R R |
63% |
64% |
|
|
South Carolina |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
South
Carolina |
4 |
O |
Open
(Jim DeMint) (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1998 |
80% |
69% |
R R |
65% |
65% |
|
|
South Carolina |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
35% |
35% |
35% |
R |
R |
R |
|
South
Carolina |
5 |
|
John
Spratt (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1982 |
59% |
86% |
D D |
56% |
55% |
|
|
South Carolina |
5 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
44% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
South
Carolina |
6 |
|
James
Clyburn (D) |
Landslide |
D |
63% |
1992 |
72% |
67% |
D D |
65% |
60% |
|
|
South Carolina |
6 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
65% |
60% |
60% |
D |
D |
D |
|
South
Dakota |
1 |
V |
Stephanie
Herseth (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
43% |
2004 |
73% |
51% |
R D |
61% |
61% |
|
|
South Dakota |
1 |
Vulnerable |
|
R |
D |
39% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Tennessee |
1 |
2 |
Bill
Jenkins (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
1996 |
100% |
100% |
R R |
61% |
61% |
|
|
Tennessee |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
39% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Tennessee |
2 |
|
Jimmy
Duncan (R) |
Landslide |
R |
67% |
1988 |
89% |
79% |
R R |
58% |
59% |
|
|
Tennessee |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Tennessee |
3 |
|
Zach
Wamp (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1994 |
64% |
65% |
R R |
54% |
57% |
|
|
Tennessee |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Tennessee |
4 |
|
Lincoln
Davis (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
2002 |
66% |
52% |
R D |
52% |
50% |
|
|
Tennessee |
4 |
Competitive |
|
R |
D |
48% |
50% |
50% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Tennessee |
5 |
|
Jim
Cooper (D) |
Landslide |
D |
60% |
2002 |
72% |
64% |
D D |
61% |
58% |
|
|
Tennessee |
5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
61% |
58% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Tennessee |
6 |
|
Bart
Gordon (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1984 |
62% |
66% |
D D |
52% |
51% |
|
|
Tennessee |
6 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
48% |
51% |
51% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Tennessee |
7 |
UU |
Marsha
Blackburn (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
2002 |
70% |
71% |
R R |
55% |
58% |
|
|
Tennessee |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
42% |
42% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Tennessee |
8 |
|
John
Tanner (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
60% |
1988 |
72% |
70% |
D D |
51% |
52% |
|
|
Tennessee |
8 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
51% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Tennessee |
9 |
2 |
Harold
Ford Jr. (D) |
Landslide |
D |
68% |
1996 |
100% |
84% |
D D |
79% |
65% |
|
|
Tennessee |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
79% |
65% |
65% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
1 |
|
Max
Sandlin (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
39% |
1996 |
56% |
56% |
D D |
62% |
63% |
68% |
|
Texas |
1 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
38% |
37% |
32% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
2 |
|
Nick
Lampson (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
42% |
1996 |
59% |
59% |
D D |
53% |
61% |
63% |
|
Texas |
2 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
47% |
39% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
3 |
U |
Sam
Johnson (R) |
Landslide |
R |
71% |
1991 |
72% |
74% |
R R |
68% |
71% |
70% |
|
|
|
Texas |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
32% |
29% |
30% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
4 |
S |
Ralph
Hall* (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
2002 |
60% |
58% |
D R |
70% |
69% |
66% |
|
Texas |
4 |
R |
R |
D |
R |
30% |
31% |
34% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
5 |
|
Jeb
Hensarling (R) |
Landslide |
R |
65% |
2002 |
54% |
58% |
R R |
56% |
60% |
67% |
|
Texas |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
40% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
6 |
|
Joe
Barton (R) |
Landslide |
R |
69% |
1984 |
88% |
70% |
R R |
69% |
65% |
67% |
|
Texas |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
31% |
35% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
7 |
|
John
Abney Culbertson (R) |
Landslide |
R |
71% |
2000 |
74% |
89% |
R R |
71% |
66% |
70% |
|
Texas |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
29% |
34% |
30% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
8 |
|
Kevin
Brady (R) |
Landslide |
R |
76% |
1996 |
92% |
93% |
R R |
76% |
76% |
70% |
|
Texas |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
24% |
24% |
30% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
9 |
O,
D |
Open
(Chris Bell) (D) |
Landslide |
D |
63% |
2002 |
60% |
55% |
D D |
53% |
54% |
69% |
|
Texas |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
47% |
46% |
69% |
R |
R |
D |
|
Texas |
10 |
O,
U |
Open
(Lloyd Doggett) (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
39% |
1994 |
85% |
84% |
D D |
50% |
55% |
67% |
|
Texas |
10 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
50% |
55% |
33% |
R |
D |
R |
|
Texas |
11 |
O |
Open
(Chet Edwards) (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
31% |
1990 |
55% |
52% |
D D |
65% |
66% |
75% |
|
Texas |
11 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
35% |
34% |
25% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
12 |
|
Kay
Granger (R) |
Landslide |
R |
66% |
1996 |
63% |
92% |
R R |
58% |
65% |
64% |
|
Texas |
12 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
35% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
13 |
U |
Mac
Thornberry (R) |
Landslide |
R |
74% |
1994 |
68% |
79% |
R R |
67% |
73% |
74% |
|
Texas |
13 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
33% |
27% |
26% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
14 |
UU |
Ron
Paul (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1996 |
60% |
68% |
R R |
63% |
64% |
64% |
|
Texas |
14 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
15 |
2 |
Ruben
Hinojosa (D) |
Competitive |
|
52% |
1996 |
88% |
100% |
D D |
57% |
56% |
51% |
|
Texas |
15 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
57% |
56% |
49% |
D |
D |
R |
|
Texas |
16 |
|
Silvestre
Reyes (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1996 |
68% |
100% |
D D |
61% |
61% |
59% |
|
Texas |
16 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
61% |
61% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
17 |
|
Chet
Edwards (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
40% |
1990 |
55% |
52% |
D D |
65% |
71% |
68% |
|
Texas |
17 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
35% |
29% |
32% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
18 |
U |
Sheila
Jackson Lee (D) |
Landslide |
D |
72% |
1994 |
76% |
77% |
D D |
75% |
76% |
72% |
|
Texas |
18 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
75% |
76% |
72% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
19 |
I
V |
Randy
Neugebaure (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
2003 |
92% |
51% |
R R |
79% |
74% |
75% |
|
Texas |
19 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
21% |
26% |
25% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
20 |
2 |
Charlie
Gonzalez (D) |
Landslide |
D |
61% |
1998 |
88% |
100% |
D D |
58% |
59% |
58% |
|
Texas |
20 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
58% |
59% |
58% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
21 |
|
Lamar
Smith (R) |
Landslide |
R |
68% |
1986 |
76% |
73% |
R R |
69% |
71% |
67% |
|
Texas |
21 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
31% |
29% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
22 |
|
Tom
DeLay (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1984 |
60% |
63% |
R R |
62% |
67% |
67% |
|
Texas |
22 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
38% |
33% |
33% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
23 |
|
Henry
Bonilla (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1992 |
59% |
52% |
R R |
56% |
57% |
64% |
|
Texas |
23 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
43% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
24 |
O |
Open
(Martin Frost) (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
37% |
1978 |
62% |
65% |
D D |
53% |
56% |
68% |
|
Texas |
24 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
53% |
56% |
32% |
D |
D |
R |
|
Texas |
25 |
|
Lloyd
Doggett (D) |
Landslide |
D |
74% |
1994 |
85% |
84% |
D D |
50% |
53% |
62% |
|
Texas |
25 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
50% |
53% |
62% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
26 |
|
Michael
Burgess (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
2002 |
72% |
75% |
R R |
71% |
72% |
63% |
|
Texas |
26 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
29% |
28% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
27 |
|
Solomon
Ortiz (D) |
Tight |
D |
53% |
1982 |
63% |
61% |
D D |
52% |
53% |
50% |
|
Texas |
27 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
52% |
53% |
50% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
28 |
O
D |
Open
(Ciro Rodriguez) (D) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1997 |
89% |
71% |
D D |
59% |
61% |
51% |
|
Texas |
28 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
59% |
61% |
51% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
29 |
U |
Gene
Green (D) |
Landslide |
D |
61% |
1992 |
73% |
95% |
D D |
63% |
62% |
57% |
|
Texas |
29 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
63% |
62% |
57% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
30 |
U |
E
Bernice Johnson (D) |
Landslide |
D |
75% |
1992 |
92% |
74% |
D D |
73% |
71% |
74% |
|
Texas |
30 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
73% |
71% |
74% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Texas |
31 |
|
John
Carter (R) |
Landslide |
R |
68% |
2002 |
|
69% |
R |
New |
70% |
69% |
|
Texas |
31 |
R |
R |
|
R |
New |
30% |
31% |
New |
R |
R |
|
Texas |
32 |
I |
Pete
Sessions (R) |
Landslide |
R |
61% |
1996 |
54% |
68% |
R R |
56% |
63% |
64% |
|
Texas |
32 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
44% |
37% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
DISTRICT
INFORMATION |
2004 PROJECTIONS |
DISTRICT HISTORY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
|
Low |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002-2004 |
Projected |
|
Projected |
1st |
Winning % |
Party |
Partisanship |
|
|
|
State |
CD |
Codes |
Incumbent |
Result |
Party |
% |
Elected |
2000 |
2002 |
Winners |
2000 |
2002 |
*2004 |
|
|
|
Utah |
1 |
|
Rob
Bishop (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
2002 |
69% |
61% |
R R |
76% |
71% |
|
|
Utah |
1 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
24% |
29% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Utah |
2 |
|
Jim
Matheson (D) |
Vulnerable |
|
38% |
2000 |
56% |
50% |
D D |
65% |
68% |
|
|
Utah |
2 |
Vulnerable |
|
D |
D |
35% |
32% |
32% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Utah |
3 |
|
Christopher
Cannon (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
57% |
1996 |
59% |
67% |
R R |
76% |
75% |
|
|
|
|
Utah |
3 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
24% |
25% |
25% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Vermont |
1 |
|
Bernard
Sanders (I) |
Comfortable |
I |
57% |
1990 |
76% |
64% |
I I |
52% |
52% |
|
|
Vermont |
1 |
I |
I |
I |
I |
52% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Virginia |
1 |
UU |
Jo
Ann Davis (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
2000 |
58% |
100% |
R R |
59% |
59% |
|
|
Virginia |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
2 |
O |
Open
(Edward Schrock) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
2000 |
52% |
83% |
R R |
54% |
56% |
|
|
Virginia |
2 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
46% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
3 |
2 |
Robert
Scott (D) |
Landslide |
D |
71% |
1992 |
98% |
100% |
D D |
67% |
68% |
|
|
Virginia |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
67% |
68% |
68% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Virginia |
4 |
|
J.
Randy Forbes (R) |
Landslide |
R |
69% |
2001 |
52% |
100% |
R R |
51% |
54% |
|
|
Virginia |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
51% |
46% |
46% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
5 |
|
Virgil
Goode (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1996 |
69% |
64% |
R R |
58% |
57% |
|
|
Virginia |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
42% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
6 |
2 UU |
Bob
Goodlatte (R) |
Landslide |
R |
64% |
1992 |
99% |
100% |
R R |
60% |
61% |
|
|
Virginia |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
40% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
7 |
UU |
Eric
Cantor (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
2000 |
67% |
70% |
R R |
63% |
61% |
|
|
Virginia |
7 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
37% |
39% |
39% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
8 |
|
James
Moran (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
1990 |
63% |
60% |
D D |
57% |
59% |
|
|
Virginia |
8 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
57% |
59% |
59% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Virginia |
9 |
|
Rick
Boucher (D) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1982 |
70% |
66% |
D D |
56% |
56% |
|
|
Virginia |
9 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
44% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
10 |
|
Frank
Wolf (R) |
Landslide |
R |
63% |
1980 |
84% |
72% |
R R |
59% |
57% |
|
|
Virginia |
10 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
43% |
43% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Virginia |
11 |
UU |
Tom
Davis (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
58% |
1994 |
62% |
83% |
R R |
51% |
53% |
|
|
Virginia |
11 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
51% |
47% |
47% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Washington |
1 |
|
Jay
Inslee (D) |
Competitive |
|
53% |
1998 |
55% |
56% |
D D |
55% |
54% |
|
|
Washington |
1 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
55% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Washington |
2 |
|
Rick
Larsen (D) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
2000 |
50% |
50% |
D D |
50% |
51% |
|
|
Washington |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
50% |
49% |
49% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Washington |
3 |
|
Brian
Baird (D) |
Competitive |
|
51% |
1998 |
56% |
62% |
D D |
52% |
52% |
|
|
Washington |
3 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
48% |
48% |
48% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Washington |
4 |
|
Doc
Hastings (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1994 |
61% |
67% |
R R |
65% |
64% |
|
|
Washington |
4 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
35% |
36% |
36% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Washington |
5 |
O |
Open
(George Nethercutt) (R) |
Tight |
R |
53% |
1994 |
57% |
63% |
R R |
59% |
59% |
|
|
Washington |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
41% |
41% |
41% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Washington |
6 |
|
Norm
Dicks (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
58% |
1976 |
65% |
64% |
D D |
53% |
53% |
|
|
Washington |
6 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
53% |
53% |
53% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Washington |
7 |
|
Jim
McDermott (D) |
Landslide |
D |
71% |
1988 |
73% |
74% |
D D |
74% |
73% |
|
|
Washington |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
74% |
73% |
73% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Washington |
8 |
O |
Open
(Jennifer Dunn) (R) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1992 |
62% |
60% |
R R |
51% |
50% |
|
|
Washington |
8 |
Competitive |
|
R |
R |
51% |
50% |
50% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Washington |
9 |
|
Adam
Smith (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1996 |
62% |
59% |
D D |
55% |
54% |
|
|
Washington |
9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
55% |
54% |
54% |
D |
D |
D |
|
West Virginia |
1 |
2 |
Alan
Mollohan (D) |
Competitive |
|
47% |
1982 |
88% |
100% |
D D |
56% |
56% |
|
|
West Virginia |
1 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
44% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
West
Virginia |
2 |
|
Shelly
Moore Capito (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
55% |
2000 |
48% |
60% |
R R |
54% |
55% |
|
|
West Virginia |
2 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
West
Virginia |
3 |
|
Nick
Rahall (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
59% |
1976 |
91% |
70% |
D D |
52% |
52% |
|
|
West Virginia |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
52% |
52% |
52% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Wisconsin |
1 |
|
Paul
Ryan (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
59% |
1998 |
67% |
67% |
R R |
51% |
53% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
51% |
47% |
47% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Wisconsin |
2 |
|
Tammy
Baldwin (D) |
Competitive |
|
50% |
1998 |
51% |
66% |
D D |
60% |
60% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
2 |
Competitive |
|
D |
D |
60% |
60% |
60% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Wisconsin |
3 |
|
Ron
Kind (D) |
Comfortable |
D |
56% |
1996 |
64% |
63% |
D D |
51% |
51% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
3 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
51% |
51% |
51% |
D |
D |
D |
|
Wisconsin |
4 |
O |
Open
(Jerry Kleczka) (D) |
Landslide |
D |
62% |
1984 |
61% |
87% |
D D |
52% |
67% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
4 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
48% |
67% |
67% |
R |
D |
D |
|
Wisconsin |
5 |
|
James
Sensenbrenner (R) |
Landslide |
R |
67% |
1978 |
74% |
87% |
R R |
64% |
63% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
5 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
36% |
37% |
37% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Wisconsin |
6 |
|
Thomas
Petri (R) |
Landslide |
R |
60% |
1979 |
65% |
100% |
R R |
55% |
56% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
6 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
45% |
44% |
44% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Wisconsin |
7 |
U |
David
Obey (D) |
Tight |
D |
54% |
1969 |
63% |
64% |
D D |
50% |
51% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
7 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
50% |
49% |
49% |
D |
R |
R |
|
Wisconsin |
8 |
|
Mark
Green (R) |
Landslide |
R |
62% |
1998 |
75% |
73% |
R R |
54% |
55% |
|
|
Wisconsin |
8 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
46% |
45% |
45% |
R |
R |
R |
|
Wyoming |
1 |
|
Barbara
Cubin (R) |
Comfortable |
R |
60% |
1994 |
67% |
61% |
R R |
71% |
70% |
|
|
Wyoming |
1 |
R |
R |
R |
R |
29% |
30% |
30% |
R |
R |
R |
|
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Notes |
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*2004 partisanships are shown for Texas only to account for
re-redistricting. |
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1. Data listed for 2000 and 2002 winning
percentages refer to the districts that the 2004 incumbent held in those
years. |
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2. Ralph Hall (TX-4) was elected as a
Democrat from 1980 to 2002. He
switched to the Republican Party on Jan 5, 2004. For the purposes of this model, which is |
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not designed to handle representatives
changing party, we are considering him a Republican elected for the first
time in 2002. |
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3. Two TX incumbents are running against
other incumbents, due to redistricting.
Both districts are heavily Republican, so the districts are listed
with the |
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Republican incumbent. |
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Randy Neugebaure (R, TX-19) is running
against Charlie Stenhold (formerly TX-17). |
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Pete Sessions (R, TX-32) is running
against Martin Frost (formerly TX-24). |
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4. Bernie Sanders (VT-1) is an Independent
whose projection is treated as if he were a Democrat. |
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5. Several Texas incumbents are running in
different district numbers in 2004 than they did in 2002. |
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6. Rodney Alexander (LA-5) switched to the
Republican Party in 2004. |
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Notes
about Special Elections |
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To
avoid complicating our projection model, we modify presentation of election
results in our main spreadsheet when a seat is filled |
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by
a special election. Following is a list of special elections since November
2002. The winners' percentage in the special election |
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is
reported in the November 2002 result column. The previous incumbent's Nov.
2002 percentage is listed below. |
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1. Ben Chandler (KY-6) was elected on
February 17, 2004. His predecessor Ernie Fletcher won with 72% in November
2002. |
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2. Stephanie Herseth (SD-1) was elected June
1, 2004. Her predecessor Bill Janklow
won with 53% in November 2002. |
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3. Edward Case (HI-2) was elected in January
2003 with 42% of the vote. His
predecessor Patsy Mink won with 56% in November 2002. |
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4. Randy Neugebauer (TX-19) was elected in
June 3, 2003. His predecessor Lary Combest won with 92% in November 2002. |
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5. G. K. Butterfield (NC-1) was elected July
20, 2004. His predecessor Frank W.
Balance Jr. won with 64% in November 2002. |
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