Monopoly Politics 2004: Projections in U.S. House Races
In this report we list our projections for U.S. House races in 2004 and provide all the data used in making those projections.
We go into more detail in our methodology and terminology section
For understanding this report, note the following:
1. Projections are based on the parties equally dividing the national vote. Shifts in that vote would shift
some, but not many, of the projections.
2. 2000 partisanship, 2002 partisanship and (for Texas only) 2004 partisanship are based on the way we analyze presidential
election results in a district. If district lines had not changed since 2000, the district partisanship would not have changed.
3. The key projection terms are:
Landslide: winning by more than 20%
Comfortable: winning a seat by more than 10% but less than 20%
Tight: winning a seat by less than 10%
Competitive: seat is potentially in play in 2004
Vulnerable: seat most likely to change hands in 2004 in a 50-50 national vote
4. In the incumbent column, blue text indicates Democrats, red text indicates Republicans and light green text indicates Independents.
5. Note that due to redistricting, there often was not a clean connection between district numbers in 2000 and in 2002. Many .
incumbents ran in district with new numbers, and some districts with the same number were quite different in 2002 than in 2000.
Summary of Projections Codes                
Projection Dem/Ind Rep Total UU Incumbent is completely uncontested in November 2004    
Landslide 109 102 211 U Incumbent is uncontested by a major party in Nov. 2004    
Comfortable 38 69 107 O Open seat in 2004 election    
Tight 9 24 33 D Incumbent defeated in primary    
Projections 156 195 351 S Denotes an incumbent who switched parties.      This data all comes from the Projections page and is used to format the Easy Viewing page
Competitive 37 34 71 I Denotes incumbent verses incumbent    
Vulnerable 13 0 13 V Special election to fill vacancy since November 2002     These cells are used to show no projected party          
Total Seats 206 229 435 2 Denotes an incumbent uncontested in the last 2 elections     in the projection party column to the left          
Competitive
Vulnerable
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low               Winning Party   District Partisanship     Party favored by p-ship  
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship Proj No 2000 2002     TX only     TX only
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004 State CD Party Proj Party Party 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004
Alabama 1   Jo Bonner  (R) Landslide R 61% 2002 91% 60% R   R 60% 61%      Alabama 1 R R R R 40% 39% 39% R R R
Alabama 2 Terry Everett (R) Landslide R 63% 1992 68% 69% R   R 62% 61%      Alabama 2 R R R R 38% 39% 39% R R R
Alabama 3 Mike Rogers  (R) Competitive 51% 2002 87% 50% R   R 56% 52%   Alabama 3 Competitive R R 44% 48% 48% R R R
Alabama 4 Robert Aderholt (R) Landslide R 62% 1996 61% 87% R   R 58% 61%   Alabama 4 R R R R 42% 39% 39% R R R
Alabama 5 Bud Cramer (D) Comfortable D 57% 1990 89% 73% D   D 55% 55%   Alabama 5 D D D D 45% 45% 45% R R R
Alabama 6 2 UU Spencer Bachus (R) Landslide R 76% 1992 88% 90% R   R 69% 73%   Alabama 6 R R R R 31% 27% 27% R R R
Alabama 7   Artur Davis  (D) Landslide D 76% 2002 75% 92% D   D 75% 68%   Alabama 7 D D D D 75% 68% 68% D D D
Alaska 1   Don Young (R) Landslide R 69% 1973 70% 75% R   R 71% 71%   Alaska 1 R R R R 29% 29% 29% R R R
Arizona 1   Rick Renzi  (R) Competitive   50% 2002 54% 49% R   R 56% 53%   Arizona 1 Competitive R R 44% 47% 47% R R R
Arizona 2 Trent Franks  (R) Comfortable R 58% 2002 66% 60% R   R 58% 58%   Arizona 2 R R R R 42% 42% 42% R R R
Arizona 3 U John Shadegg (R) Comfortable R 60% 1994 64% 67% R   R 55% 56%   Arizona 3 R R R R 45% 44% 44% R R R
Arizona 4 Ed Pastor (D) Landslide D 65% 1991 69% 67% D   D 62% 64%   Arizona 4 D D D D 62% 64% 64% D D D
Arizona 5 J.D. Hayworth (R) Comfortable R 58% 1994 61% 61% R   R 56% 55%   Arizona 5 R R R R 44% 45% 45% R R R
Arizona 6 U Jeff Flake (R) Landslide R 62% 2000 54% 66% R   R 54% 61%   Arizona 6 R R R R 46% 39% 39% R R R
Arizona 7 Raul Grijalva  (D) Comfortable D 59% 2002   59%    D New 59%   Arizona 7 D D   D New 59% 59% New D D
Arizona 8   Jim Kolbe (R) Comfortable R 56% 1984 60% 63% R   R 51% 52%   Arizona 8 R R R R 49% 48% 48% R R R
Arkansas 1   Marion Berry (D) Tight D 54% 1996 60% 66% D   D 52% 51%   Arkansas 1 D D D D 52% 51% 51% D D D
Arkansas 2 Vic Snyder (D) Competitive 53% 1996 58% 93% D   D 51% 51%   Arkansas 2 Competitive D D 49% 49% 49% R R R
Arkansas 3 John Boozman (R) Landslide R 74% 2001 56% 99% R   R 61% 61%   Arkansas 3 R R R R 39% 39% 39% R R R
Arkansas 4 UU Mike Ross (D) Competitive   53% 2000 51% 61% D   D 52% 51%   Arkansas 4 Competitive D D 52% 51% 51% D D D
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
California 1 Mike Thompson (D) Comfortable D 58% 1998 65% 64% D   D 52% 53%   California 1 D D D D 52% 53% 53% D D D
California 2 Wally Herger (R) Landslide R 65% 1986 66% 66% R   R 64% 65%   California 2 R R R R 36% 35% 35% R R R
California 3 O Open (Doug Ose) (R) Competitive 52% 1998 56% 62% R   R 54% 57%   California 3 Competitive R R 46% 43% 43% R R R
California 4 John Doolittle (R) Landslide R 64% 1990 63% 65% R   R 61% 63%   California 4 R R R R 39% 37% 37% R R R
California 5 Robert Matsui (D) Landslide D 65% 1978 69% 71% D   D 59% 62%   California 5 D D D D 59% 62% 62% D D D
California 6 Lynn Woolsey (D) Landslide D 64% 1992 64% 66% D   D 64% 64%   California 6 D D D D 64% 64% 64% D D D
California 7 George Miller (D) Landslide D 69% 1974 76% 71% D   D 71% 68%     California 7 D D D D 71% 68% 68% D D D
California 8 Nancy Pelosi (D) Landslide D 79% 1987 84% 80% D   D 79% 79%   California 8 D D D D 79% 79% 79% D D D
California 9 Barbara Lee (D) Landslide D 81% 1998 85% 81% D   D 81% 80%   California 9 D D D D 81% 80% 80% D D D
California 10 Ellen Tauscher (D) Comfortable D 55% 1996 53% 76% D   D 53% 57%   California 10 D D D D 53% 57% 57% D D D
California 11 UU Richard Pombo (R) Comfortable R 56% 1992 58% 60% R   R 51% 54%   California 11 R R R R 49% 46% 46% R R R
California 12 Tom Lantos (D) Landslide D 67% 1980 75% 68% D   D 69% 68%   California 12 D D D D 69% 68% 68% D D D
California 13 Pete Stark (D) Landslide D 69% 1972 70% 71% D   D 69% 69%   California 13 D D D D 69% 69% 69% D D D
California 14 Anna Eshoo (D) Landslide D 65% 1992 70% 68% D   D 65% 63%   California 14 D D D D 65% 63% 63% D D D
California 15 Michael Honda (D) Landslide D 62% 2000 54% 66% D   D 59% 62%   California 15 D D D D 59% 62% 62% D D D
California 16 Zoe Lofgren (D) Landslide D 66% 1994 72% 67% D   D 67% 65%   California 16 D D D D 67% 65% 65% D D D
California 17 Sam Farr (D) Landslide D 64% 1993 69% 68% D   D 62% 61%   California 17 D D D D 62% 61% 61% D D D
California 18 Dennis Cardoza  (D) Competitive 52% 2002 67% 51% D   D 54% 55%   California 18 Competitive D D 46% 55% 55% R D D
California 19 George Radanovich (R) Landslide R 61% 1994 65% 67% R   R 60% 59%   California 19 R R R R 40% 41% 41% R R R
California 20 O Open (Cal Dooley) (D) Competitive 51% 1990 52% 63% D   D 52% 56%   California 20 Competitive D D 52% 56% 56% D D D
California 21 Devin Nunes  (R) Landslide R 65% 2002   70%    R New 62%   California 21 R R   R New 38% 38% New R R
California 22 UU Bill Thomas (R) Landslide R 68% 1978 72% 73% R   R 64% 65%   California 22 R R R R 36% 35% 35% R R R
California 23 Lois Capps (D) Comfortable D 57% 1998 53% 59% D   D 53% 55%   California 23 D D D D 47% 55% 55% R D D
California 24 Elton Gallegly (R) Comfortable R 57% 1986 54% 65% R   R 50% 56%   California 24 R R R R 50% 44% 44% D R R
California 25 Buck McKeon (R) Comfortable R 60% 1992 62% 65% R   R 53% 57%   California 25 R R R R 47% 43% 43% R R R
California 26 David Dreier (R) Comfortable R 58% 1980 57% 64% R   R 51% 55%   California 26 R R R R 51% 45% 45% D R R
California 27 Brad Sherman (D) Landslide D 62% 1996 66% 62% D   D 60% 62%   California 27 D D D D 60% 62% 62% D D D
California 28 Howard Berman (D) Landslide D 70% 1982 84% 71% D   D 73% 74%   California 28 D D D D 73% 74% 74% D D D
California 29 Adam Schiff (D) Comfortable D 60% 2000 53% 63% D   D 56% 59%   California 29 D D D D 56% 59% 59% D D D
California 30 Henry Waxman (D) Landslide D 70% 1974 76% 70% D   D 74% 70%   California 30 D D D D 74% 70% 70% D D D
California 31 Xavier Becerra (D) Landslide D 80% 1992 83% 81% D   D 78% 79%   California 31 D D D D 78% 79% 79% D D D
California 32 Hilda Solis (D) Landslide D 68% 2000 75% 69% D   D 72% 68%   California 32 D D D D 72% 68% 68% D D D
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
California 33 U Diane Watson (D) Landslide D 83% 2001 75% 83% D   D 86% 85%   California 33 D D D D 86% 85% 85% D D D
California 34 Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) Landslide D 73% 1992 85% 74% D   D 85% 74%   California 34 D D D D 85% 74% 74% D D D
California 35 Maxine Waters (D) Landslide D 76% 1990 87% 77% D   D 88% 83%   California 35 D D D D 88% 83% 83% D D D
California 36 Jane Harman (D) Comfortable D 59% 2000 48% 61% D   D 53% 59%   California 36 D D D D 53% 59% 59% D D D
California 37 Juanita Mill-McDonald (D) Landslide D 72% 1996 82% 73% D   D 86% 78%   California 37 D D D D 86% 78% 78% D D D
California 38 UU Grace Napolitano (D) Landslide D 70% 1998 71% 71% D   D 70% 72%   California 38 D D D D 70% 72% 72% D D D
California 39 Linda Sanchez  (D) Comfortable D 58% 2002 48% 55% D   D 60% 64%   California 39 D D D D 60% 64% 64% D D D
California 40 Ed Royce (R) Landslide R 61% 1992 63% 68% R   R 54% 58%   California 40 R R R R 46% 42% 42% R R R
California 41 U Jerry Lewis (R) Landslide R 61% 1978 80% 67% R   R 58% 57%   California 41 R R R R 42% 43% 43% R R R
California 42 Gary Miller (R) Landslide R 63% 1998 59% 68% R   R 51% 60%   California 42 R R R R 49% 40% 40% R R R
California 43 Joe Baca (D) Landslide D 66% 1999 60% 66% D   D 60% 65%   California 43 D D D D 60% 65% 65% D D D
California 44 Ken Calvert (R) Comfortable R 58% 1992 74% 63% R   R 54% 54%   California 44 R R R R 46% 46% 46% R R R
California 45 Mary Bono (R) Comfortable R 55% 1998 59% 65% R   R 51% 52%   California 45 R R R R 49% 48% 48% R R R
California 46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) Comfortable R 58% 1988 62% 62% R   R 58% 57%   California 46 R R R R 42% 43% 43% R R R
California 47 Loretta Sanchez (D) Comfortable D 59% 1996 60% 61% D   D 57% 58%   California 47 D D D D 57% 58% 58% D D D
California 48 Christopher Cox (R) Landslide R 62% 1988 66% 68% R   R 59% 59%   California 48 R R R R 41% 41% 41% R R R
California 49 Darrell Issa (R) Landslide R 64% 2000 61% 78% R   R 62% 60%   California 49 R R R R 38% 40% 40% R R R
California 50 Duke Cunningham (R) Comfortable R 59% 1990 64% 64% R   R 57% 56%   California 50 R R R R 43% 44% 44% R R R
California 51 Bob Filner (D) Comfortable D 57% 1992 68% 58% D   D 61% 58%   California 51 D D D D 61% 58% 58% D D D
California 52 Duncan Hunter (R) Landslide R 62% 1980 65% 70% R   R 57% 59%   California 52 R R R R 43% 41% 41% R R R
California 53   Susan Davis (D) Comfortable D 59% 2000 50% 62% D   D 55% 59%   California 53 D D D D 55% 59% 59% D D D
Colorado 1   Diana DeGette (D) Landslide D 63% 1996 69% 66% D   D 66% 62%   Colorado 1 D D D D 66% 62% 62% D D D
Colorado 2 Mark Udall (D) Tight D 55% 1998 55% 60% D   D 52% 54%   Colorado 2 D D D D 52% 54% 54% D D D
Colorado 3 O Open (Scott McInnis) (R) Tight R 54% 1992 66% 66% R   R 56% 59%   Colorado 3 R R R R 44% 41% 41% R R R
Colorado 4 Marilyn Musgrave  (R) Comfortable R 57% 2002 79% 55% R   R 60% 62%   Colorado 4 R R R R 40% 38% 38% R R R
Colorado 5 Joel Hefley (R) Landslide R 68% 1986 83% 69% R   R 63% 67%   Colorado 5 R R R R 37% 33% 33% R R R
Colorado 6 Tom Tancredo (R) Landslide R 62% 1998 54% 67% R   R 51% 61%   Colorado 6 R R R R 49% 39% 39% R R R
Colorado 7   Bob Beauprez  (R) Competitive   48% 2002   47%       R New 51%   Colorado 7 Competitive   R New 51% 51% New D D
Connecticut 1   John Larson (D) Landslide D 65% 1998 72% 67% D   D 65% 64%   Connecticut 1 D D D D 65% 64% 64% D D D
Connecticut 2 Rob Simmons (R) Competitive 47% 2000 51% 54% R   R 58% 56%   Connecticut 2 Competitive R R 58% 56% 56% D D D
Connecticut 3 Rosa DeLauro (D) Landslide D 63% 1990 72% 66% D   D 62% 62%   Connecticut 3 D D D D 62% 62% 62% D D D
Connecticut 4 Christopher Shays (R) Competitive 51% 1987 58% 64% R   R 57% 55%   Connecticut 4 Competitive R R 57% 55% 55% D D D
Connecticut 5   Nancy Johnson (R) Competitive   50% 1982 54% 54% R   R 55% 54%   Connecticut 5 Competitive R R 55% 54% 54% D D D
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
Delaware 1   Michael Castle (R) Tight R 53% 1992 68% 72% R   R 57% 57%   Delaware 1 R R R R 57% 57% 57% D D D
Florida 1   Jeff Miller (R) Landslide R 70% 2001 66% 75% R   R 68% 67%   Florida 1 R R R R 32% 33% 33% R R R
Florida 2 Allen Boyd (D) Comfortable D 56% 1996 72% 67% D   D 51% 51%   Florida 2 D D D D 51% 49% 49% D R R
Florida 3 U Corrine Brown (D) Comfortable D 58% 1992 58% 59% D   D 63% 67%   Florida 3 D D D D 63% 67% 67% D D D
Florida 4 U Ander Crenshaw (R) Landslide R 66% 2000 67% 100% R   R 62% 64%   Florida 4 R R R R 38% 36% 36% R R R
Florida 5 Virginia Brown-Waite  (R) Competitive 49% 2002 64% 48% D   R 54% 52%   Florida 5 Competitive D R 54% 48% 48% D R R
Florida 6 Cliff Stearns (R) Landslide R 60% 1988 100% 65% R   R 59% 57%   Florida 6 R R R R 41% 43% 43% R R R
Florida 7 UU John Mica (R) Comfortable R 55% 1992 63% 60% R   R 50% 52%   Florida 7 R R R R 50% 48% 48% R R R
Florida 8 Ric Keller (R) Comfortable R 55% 2000 51% 65% R   R 50% 52%   Florida 8 R R R R 50% 48% 48% D R R
Florida 9 U Michael Bilirakis (R) Landslide R 60% 1982 82% 71% R   R 52% 53%   Florida 9 R R R R 48% 47% 47% R R R
Florida 10 2 C.W. (Bill) Young (R) Competitive 51% 1970 76% 100% R   R 56% 52%   Florida 10 Competitive R R 56% 52% 52% D D D
Florida 11 2  U Jim Davis (D) Landslide D 66% 1996 85% 100% D   D 56% 63%   Florida 11 D D D D 56% 63% 63% D D D
Florida 12 Adam Putnam (R) Tight R 54% 2000 57% 100% R   R 55% 53%   Florida 12 R R R R 45% 47% 47% R R R
Florida 13 Katherine Harris  (R) Tight R 53% 2002 64% 55% R   R 52% 53%   Florida 13 R R R R 48% 47% 47% R R R
Florida 14 O Open (Porter Goss) (R) Tight R 54% 1988 85% 100% R   R 59% 60%   Florida 14 R R R R 41% 40% 40% R R R
Florida 15 Dave Weldon (R) Tight R 54% 1994 59% 63% R   R 53% 52%   Florida 15 R R R R 47% 48% 48% R R R
Florida 16 Mark Foley (R) Comfortable R 57% 1994 60% 79% R   R 53% 51%   Florida 16 R R R R 53% 49% 49% D R R
Florida 17 U Kendrick Meek  (D) Landslide D 91% 2002 100% 100% D   D 87% 86%   Florida 17 D D D D 87% 86% 86% D D D
Florida 18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) Landslide R 61% 1989 100% 69% R   R 60% 55%   Florida 18 R R R R 40% 45% 45% R R R
Florida 19 UU Robert Wexler (D) Landslide D 71% 1996 72% 72% D   D 71% 74%   Florida 19 D D D D 71% 74% 74% D D D
Florida 20 O Open (Peter Deutsch) (D) Landslide D 65% 1992 100% 100% D   D 65% 71%   Florida 20 D D D D 65% 71% 71% D D D
Florida 21 2  U Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) Comfortable R 59% 1992 100% 100% R   R 61% 56%   Florida 21 R R R R 39% 44% 44% R R R
Florida 22 Clay Shaw (R) Competitive 51% 1980 50% 61% R   R 62% 54%   Florida 22 Competitive R R 62% 54% 54% D D D
Florida 23 UU Alcee Hastings (D) Landslide D 75% 1992 76% 77% D   D 82% 81%   Florida 23 D D D D 82% 81% 81% D D D
Florida 24 UU Tom Feeney  (R) Comfortable R 55% 2002   62%       R New 52%   Florida 24 R R   R New 48% 48% New R R
Florida 25 UU Mario Diaz-Balart  (R) Comfortable R 57% 2002   65%       R New 53%   Florida 25 R R   R New 47% 47% New R R
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
Georgia 1 UU Jack Kingston (R) Landslide R 67% 1992 69% 72% R   R 56% 63%   Georgia 1 R R R R 44% 37% 37% R R R
Georgia 2 Sanford Bishop (D) Competitive 53% 1992 53% 100% D   D 53% 50%   Georgia 2 Competitive D D 47% 50% 50% R D D
Georgia 3 Jim Marshall  (D) Competitive 49% 2002   51%       D New 51%   Georgia 3 Competitive   D New 49% 49% New R R
Georgia 4 O Open (Denise Majette ) (D) Landslide D 65% 2002 61% 77% D   D 72% 71%   Georgia 4 D D D D 72% 71% 71% D D D
Georgia 5 UU John Lewis (D) Landslide D 69% 1986 77% 100% D   D 79% 71%   Georgia 5 D D D D 79% 71% 71% D D D
Georgia 6 O UU Open (Johnny Isakson) (R) Landslide R 63% 1999 75% 80% R   R 65% 68%   Georgia 6 R R R R 35% 32% 32% R R R
Georgia 7 UU John Linder (R) Landslide R 74% 1992 100% 79% R   R 63% 71%   Georgia 7 R R R R 37% 29% 29% R R R
Georgia 8 O Open (Mac Collins) (R) Landslide R 64% 1992 64% 78% R   R 55% 69%   Georgia 8 R R R R 45% 31% 31% R R R
Georgia 9 UU Charlie Norwood (R) Landslide R 69% 1994 63% 73% R   R 53% 67%   Georgia 9 R R R R 47% 33% 33% R R R
Georgia 10 U Nathan Deal (R) Landslide R 72% 1992 75% 100% R   R 70% 70%   Georgia 10 R R R R 30% 30% 30% R R R
Georgia 11 Phil Gingrey  (R) Competitive 51% 2002 100% 52% R   R 59% 51%   Georgia 11 Competitive R R 41% 49% 49% R R R
Georgia 12 Max Burns  (R) Competitive 48% 2002   55%      R New 55%   Georgia 12 Competitive   R New 55% 55% New D D
Georgia 13 U David Scott  (D) Comfortable D 59% 2002   60%       D New 58%   Georgia 13 D D   D New 58% 58% New D D
Hawaii 1   Neil Abercrombie (D) Landslide D 62% 1990 69% 73% D   D 57% 57%   Hawaii 1 D D D D 57% 57% 57% D D D
Hawaii 2 V Edward Case (D) Competitive   47% 2003 62% 42% D   D 58% 58%   Hawaii 2 Competitive D D 58% 58% 58% D D D
Idaho 1 UU C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) Comfortable R 58% 2000 65% 59% R   R 70% 71%   Idaho 1 R R R R 30% 29% 29% R R R
Idaho 2   Mike Simpson (R) Landslide R 67% 1998 71% 68% R   R 73% 71%   Idaho 2 R R R R 27% 29% 29% R R R
Illinois 1   Bobby Rush (D) Landslide D 80% 1992 88% 81% D   D 88% 85%   Illinois 1 D D D D 88% 85% 85% D D D
Illinois 2 UU Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) Landslide D 81% 1995 90% 82% D   D 89% 84%   Illinois 2 D D D D 89% 84% 84% D D D
Illinois 3 O (Open) William Lipinski (D) Tight D 54% 1982 76% 100% D   D 57% 59%   Illinois 3 D D D D 57% 59% 59% D D D
Illinois 4 Luis Gutierrez (D) Landslide D 79% 1992 89% 80% D   D 79% 81%   Illinois 4 D D D D 79% 81% 81% D D D
Illinois 5 Rahm Emanuel  (D) Landslide D 67% 2002 87% 67% D   D 64% 68%   Illinois 5 D D D D 64% 68% 68% D D D
Illinois 6 Henry Hyde (R) Comfortable R 57% 1974 59% 65% R   R 54% 55%   Illinois 6 R R R R 46% 45% 45% R R R
Illinois 7 Danny Davis (D) Landslide D 82% 1996 86% 83% D   D 84% 85%   Illinois 7 D D D D 84% 85% 85% D D D
Illinois 8 Philip Crane (R) Comfortable R 57% 1969 61% 57% R   R 57% 57%   Illinois 8 R R R R 43% 43% 43% R R R
Illinois 9 UU Janice Schakowsky (D) Landslide D 69% 1998 76% 70% D   D 71% 69%   Illinois 9 D D D D 71% 69% 69% D D D
Illinois 10 Mark Kirk (R) Competitive 53% 2000 51% 69% R   R 54% 52%   Illinois 10 Competitive R R 54% 52% 52% D D D
Illinois 11 Jerry Weller (R) Comfortable R 55% 1994 56% 64% R   R 54% 51%   Illinois 11 R R R R 54% 49% 49% D R R
Illinois 12 Jerry Costello (D) Landslide D 61% 1988 100% 69% D   D 56% 55%   Illinois 12 D D D D 56% 55% 55% D D D
Illinois 13 Judy Biggert (R) Landslide R 60% 1998 66% 70% R   R 56% 56%   Illinois 13 R R R R 44% 44% 44% R R R
Illinois 14 UU Dennis Hastert (R) Landslide R 63% 1986 74% 74% R   R 57% 56%   Illinois 14 R R R R 43% 44% 44% R R R
Illinois 15 Timothy Johnson (R) Comfortable R 58% 2000 53% 65% R   R 55% 56%   Illinois 15 R R R R 45% 44% 44% R R R
Illinois 16 Donald Manzullo (R) Comfortable R 60% 1992 67% 71% R   R 56% 55%   Illinois 16 R R R R 44% 45% 45% R R R
Illinois 17 Lane Evans (D) Comfortable D 56% 1982 55% 62% D   D 53% 55%   Illinois 17 D D D D 53% 55% 55% D D D
Illinois 18 Ray LaHood (R) Comfortable R 59% 1994 67% 100% R   R 56% 55%   Illinois 18 R R R R 44% 45% 45% R R R
Illinois 19   John Shimkus (R) Tight R 54% 1996 65% 55% R   R 53% 57%   Illinois 19 R R R R 47% 43% 43% R R R
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
Indiana 1   Peter Visclosky (D) Landslide D 62% 1984 72% 67% D   D 61% 58%   Indiana 1 D D D D 61% 58% 58% D D D
Indiana 2 Chris Chocola  (R) Competitive 52% 2002 52% 50% D   R 64% 54%   Indiana 2 Competitive D R 36% 46% 46% R R R
Indiana 3 Mark Souder (R) Landslide R 62% 1994 62% 63% R   R 64% 66%   Indiana 3 R R R R 36% 34% 34% R R R
Indiana 4 Steve Buyer (R) Landslide R 65% 1992 61% 71% R   R 62% 67%   Indiana 4 R R R R 38% 33% 33% R R R
Indiana 5 Dan Burton (R) Landslide R 69% 1982 70% 72% R   R 69% 69%   Indiana 5 R R R R 31% 31% 31% R R R
Indiana 6 Mike Pence (R) Comfortable R 59% 2000 51% 64% R   R 57% 59%   Indiana 6 R R R R 43% 41% 41% R R R
Indiana 7 Julia Carson (D) Competitive 52% 1996 59% 53% D   D 61% 57%   Indiana 7 Competitive D D 61% 57% 57% D D D
Indiana 8 John Hostettler (R) Competitive 50% 1994 53% 51% R   R 57% 57%   Indiana 8 Competitive R R 43% 43% 43% R R R
Indiana 9   Baron Hill (D) Vulnerable   47% 1998 54% 51% D   D 58% 56%   Indiana 9 Vulnerable D D 42% 44% 44% R R R
Iowa 1   Jim Nussle (R) Competitive   49% 1990 55% 57% R   R 53% 54%   Iowa 1 Competitive R R 53% 54% 54% D D D
Iowa 2 Jim Leach (R) Competitive 48% 1976 62% 52% R   R 55% 55%   Iowa 2 Competitive R R 55% 55% 55% D D D
Iowa 3 Leonard Boswell (D) Competitive 52% 1996 63% 53% D   D 51% 51%   Iowa 3 Competitive D D 49% 51% 51% R D D
Iowa 4 Tom Latham (R) Competitive 52% 1994 69% 55% R   R 56% 50%   Iowa 4 Competitive R R 44% 50% 50% R R R
Iowa 5   Steve King  (R) Comfortable R 60% 2002 61% 62% R   R 56% 59%   Iowa 5 R R R R 44% 41% 41% R R R
Kansas 1 U Jerry Moran (R) Landslide R 77% 1996 89% 91% R   R 70% 70%   Kansas 1 R R R R 30% 30% 30% R R R
Kansas 2 Jim Ryun (R) Comfortable R 59% 1996 67% 60% R   R 57% 58%   Kansas 2 R R R R 43% 42% 42% R R R
Kansas 3 Dennis Moore (D) Vulnerable 46% 1998 50% 50% D   D 56% 56%   Kansas 3 Vulnerable D D 44% 44% 44% R R R
Kansas 4   Todd Tiahrt (R) Tight R 54% 1994 54% 61% R   R 61% 62%   Kansas 4 R R R R 39% 38% 38% R R R
Kentucky 1   Edward Whitfield (R) Comfortable R 58% 1994 58% 65% R   R 57% 58%   Kentucky 1 R R R R 43% 42% 42% R R R
Kentucky 2 Ron Lewis (R) Landslide R 64% 1994 68% 70% R   R 62% 62%   Kentucky 2 R R R R 38% 38% 38% R R R
Kentucky 3 Anne Northup (R) Competitive 50% 1996 53% 52% R   R 53% 52%   Kentucky 3 Competitive R R 53% 52% 52% D D D
Kentucky 4 O Open (Kenneth Lucas) (D) Vulnerable 44% 1998 54% 51% D   D 61% 62%   Kentucky 4 Vulnerable D D 39% 38% 38% R R R
Kentucky 5 UU Harold Rogers (R) Landslide R 63% 1980 74% 78% R   R 56% 57%   Kentucky 5 R R R R 44% 43% 43% R R R
Kentucky 6 V Ben Chandler (D) Competitive   47% 2004 53% 55% R   D 56% 57%   Kentucky 6 Competitive R D 44% 43% 43% R R R
Louisiana 1 O Open (David Vitter) (R) Landslide R 62% 1999 84% 97% R   R 66% 67%   Louisiana 1 R R R R 34% 33% 33% R R R
Louisiana 2 William Jefferson (D) Landslide D 81% 1990 100% 86% D   D 79% 77%   Louisiana 2 D D D D 79% 77% 77% D D D
Louisiana 3 O Open (Billy Tauzin) (R) Competitive 50% 1980 78% 87% R   R 53% 53%   Louisiana 3 Competitive R R 47% 47% 47% R R R
Louisiana 4 U Jim McCrery (R) Landslide R 62% 1988 71% 72% R   R 54% 55%   Louisiana 4 R R R R 46% 45% 45% R R R
Louisiana 5 Rodney Alexander  (R) Tight R 53% 2002 69% 50% R   R 60% 59%   Louisiana 5 R R R R 40% 41% 41% R R R
Louisiana 6 Richard Baker (R) Landslide R 61% 1986 68% 84% R   R 54% 55%   Louisiana 6 R R R R 46% 45% 45% R R R
Louisiana 7 O Open (Chris John) (D) Competitive   49% 1996 83% 87% D   D 56% 57%   Louisiana 7 Competitive D D 44% 43% 43% R R R
Maine 1   Tom Allen (D) Comfortable D 55% 1996 60% 64% D   D 53% 52%   Maine 1 D D D D 53% 52% 52% D D D
Maine 2   Michael Michaud  (D) Competitive   50% 2002 73% 52% D   D 51% 51%   Maine 2 Competitive D D 49% 49% 49% R R R
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
Maryland 1   Wayne Gilchrest (R) Landslide R 63% 1990 64% 77% R   R 54% 59%   Maryland 1 R R R R 46% 41% 41% R R R
Maryland 2 C.A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger  (D) Comfortable D 56% 2002 69% 54% R   D 57% 58%   Maryland 2 D D R D 43% 58% 58% R D D
Maryland 3 Benjamin Cardin (D) Landslide D 60% 1986 76% 66% D   D 65% 57%   Maryland 3 D D D D 65% 57% 57% D D D
Maryland 4 Albert Wynn (D) Landslide D 79% 1992 87% 79% D   D 86% 78%   Maryland 4 D D D D 86% 78% 78% D D D
Maryland 5 Steny Hoyer (D) Landslide D 61% 1981 65% 69% D   D 57% 58%   Maryland 5 D D D D 57% 58% 58% D D D
Maryland 6 Roscoe Bartlett (R) Landslide R 63% 1992 61% 66% R   R 60% 62%   Maryland 6 R R R R 40% 38% 38% R R R
Maryland 7 Elijah Cummings (D) Landslide D 73% 1996 87% 74% D   D 86% 74%   Maryland 7 D D D D 86% 74% 74% D D D
Maryland 8   Chris Van Hollen (D) Comfortable D 57% 2002 52% 52% R   D 62% 67%   Maryland 8 D D R D 62% 67% 67% D D D
Massachusetts 1 U John Olver (D) Landslide D 62% 1991 68% 68% D   D 59% 58%   Massachusetts 1 D D D D 59% 58% 58% D D D
Massachusetts 2 UU Richard Neal (D) Landslide D 75% 1988 99% 100% D   D 60% 59%   Massachusetts 2 D D D D 60% 59% 59% D D D
Massachusetts 3 Jim McGovern (D) Landslide D 76% 1996 99% 100% D   D 60% 60%   Massachusetts 3 D D D D 60% 60% 60% D D D
Massachusetts 4 UU Barney Frank (D) Landslide D 70% 1980 75% 100% D   D 65% 66%   Massachusetts 4 D D D D 65% 66% 66% D D D
Massachusetts 5 Martin Meehan (D) Comfortable D 59% 1992 98% 60% D   D 58% 58%   Massachusetts 5 D D D D 58% 58% 58% D D D
Massachusetts 6 John Tierney (D) Landslide D 63% 1996 71% 68% D   D 59% 59%   Massachusetts 6 D D D D 59% 59% 59% D D D
Massachusetts 7 Edward Markey (D) Landslide D 79% 1976 99% 100% D   D 65% 65%   Massachusetts 7 D D D D 65% 65% 65% D D D
Massachusetts 8 UU Michael Capuano (D) Landslide D 85% 1998 99% 100% D   D 74% 75%   Massachusetts 8 D D D D 74% 75% 75% D D D
Massachusetts 9 UU Stephen Lynch (D) Landslide D 74% 2001 61% 100% D   D 65% 61%   Massachusetts 9 D D D D 65% 61% 61% D D D
Massachusetts 10   Bill Delahunt (D) Landslide D 61% 1996 74% 69% D   D 57% 56%   Massachusetts 10 D D D D 57% 56% 56% D D D
Michigan 1   Bart Stupak (D) Competitive   52% 1992 58% 68% D   D 55% 53%   Michigan 1 Competitive D D 45% 47% 47% R R R
Michigan 2 Peter Hoekstra (R) Landslide R 62% 1992 64% 70% R   R 60% 60%   Michigan 2 R R R R 40% 40% 40% R R R
Michigan 3 Vern Ehlers (R) Landslide R 62% 1993 65% 70% R   R 60% 60%   Michigan 3 R R R R 40% 40% 40% R R R
Michigan 4 Dave Camp (R) Landslide R 60% 1990 68% 68% R   R 54% 55%   Michigan 4 R R R R 46% 45% 45% R R R
Michigan 5 Dale Kildee (D) Landslide D 65% 1976 61% 92% D   D 55% 62%   Michigan 5 D D D D 55% 62% 62% D D D
Michigan 6 Fred Upton (R) Comfortable R 59% 1986 68% 69% R   R 53% 53%   Michigan 6 R R R R 47% 47% 47% R R R
Michigan 7 O Open (Nick Smith) (R) Competitive 50% 1992 61% 60% R   R 52% 52%   Michigan 7 Competitive R R 48% 48% 48% R R R
Michigan 8 Mike Rogers (R) Comfortable R 55% 2000 49% 68% R   R 52% 52%   Michigan 8 R R R R 52% 48% 48% D R R
Michigan 9 Joe Knollenberg (R) Tight R 54% 1992 56% 58% R   R 52% 51%   Michigan 9 R R R R 52% 49% 49% D R R
Michigan 10 Candice Miller  (R) Comfortable R 57% 2002 64% 63% D   R 50% 54%   Michigan 10 R R D R 50% 46% 46% D R R
Michigan 11 Thaddeus McCotter  (R) Tight R 53% 2002 56% 57% R   R 52% 51%   Michigan 11 R R R R 52% 49% 49% D R R
Michigan 12 Sander Levin (D) Landslide D 65% 1982 64% 68% D   D 56% 63%   Michigan 12 D D D D 56% 63% 63% D D D
Michigan 13 Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) Landslide D 80% 1996 89% 92% D   D 90% 82%   Michigan 13 D D D D 90% 82% 82% D D D
Michigan 14 John Conyers (D) Landslide D 80% 1964 89% 83% D   D 91% 83%   Michigan 14 D D D D 91% 83% 83% D D D
Michigan 15   John Dingell (D) Landslide D 66% 1955 71% 72% D   D 55% 61%   Michigan 15 D D D D 55% 61% 61% D D D
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
Minnesota 1   Gil Gutknecht (R) Comfortable R 55% 1994 56% 62% R   R 52% 54%   Minnesota 1 R R R R 48% 46% 46% R R R
Minnesota 2 John Kline  (R) Tight R 54% 2002 50% 53% D   R 51% 54%   Minnesota 2 R R D R 49% 46% 46% R R R
Minnesota 3 Jim Ramstad (R) Comfortable R 58% 1990 68% 72% R   R 53% 52%   Minnesota 3 R R R R 47% 48% 48% R R R
Minnesota 4 Betty McCollum (D) Comfortable D 56% 2000 48% 62% D   D 59% 58%   Minnesota 4 D D D D 59% 58% 58% D D D
Minnesota 5 Martin Olav Sabo (D) Landslide D 65% 1978 69% 67% D   D 65% 64%   Minnesota 5 D D D D 65% 64% 64% D D D
Minnesota 6 Mark Kennedy (R) Tight R 53% 2000 48% 57% R   R 57% 56%   Minnesota 6 R R R R 43% 44% 44% R R R
Minnesota 7 Collin Peterson (D) Competitive 51% 1990 69% 65% D   D 58% 58%   Minnesota 7 Competitive D D 42% 42% 42% R R R
Minnesota 8   James Oberstar (D) Comfortable D 57% 1974 68% 69% D   D 52% 51%   Minnesota 8 D D D D 52% 51% 51% D D D
Mississippi 1 U Roger Wicker (R) Landslide R 63% 1994 70% 71% R   R 60% 59%   Mississippi 1 R R R R 40% 41% 41% R R R
Mississippi 2 U Bennie Thompson (D) Tight D 54% 1993 65% 55% D   D 62% 58%   Mississippi 2 D D D D 62% 58% 58% D D D
Mississippi 3 U Chip Pickering (R) Landslide R 63% 1996 73% 64% R   R 65% 64%   Mississippi 3 R R R R 35% 36% 36% R R R
Mississippi 4   Gene Taylor (D) Competitive   51% 1989 79% 75% D   D 65% 65%   Mississippi 4 Competitive D D 35% 35% 35% R R R
Missouri 1   Wm. Lacy Clay (D) Landslide D 69% 2000 75% 70% D   D 78% 74%   Missouri 1 D D D D 78% 74% 74% D D D
Missouri 2 W. Todd Akin (R) Landslide R 61% 2000 55% 67% R   R 55% 59%   Missouri 2 R R R R 45% 41% 41% R R R
Missouri 3 O Open (Richard Gephardt) (D) Competitive 50% 1976 58% 59% D   D 52% 56%   Missouri 3 Competitive D D 52% 56% 56% D D D
Missouri 4 Ike Skelton (D) Competitive 52% 1976 67% 68% D   D 59% 59%   Missouri 4 Competitive D D 41% 41% 41% R R R
Missouri 5 O Open (Karen McCarthy) (D) Comfortable D 56% 1994 69% 66% D   D 63% 62%   Missouri 5 D D D D 63% 62% 62% D D D
Missouri 6 Sam Graves (R) Comfortable R 56% 2000 51% 63% R   R 55% 54%   Missouri 6 R R R R 45% 46% 46% R R R
Missouri 7 Roy Blunt (R) Landslide R 67% 1996 74% 74% R   R 63% 63%   Missouri 7 R R R R 37% 37% 37% R R R
Missouri 8 Jo Ann Emerson (R) Landslide R 63% 1996 69% 72% R   R 61% 60%   Missouri 8 R R R R 39% 40% 40% R R R
Missouri 9   Kenny Hulshof (R) Comfortable R 57% 1996 59% 68% R   R 56% 56%   Missouri 9 R R R R 44% 44% 44% R R R
Montana 1   Dennis Rehberg (R) Comfortable R 59% 2000 51% 65% R   R 65% 65%   Montana 1 R R R R 35% 35% 35% R R R
Nebraska 1 O Open (Doug Bereuter) (R) Comfortable R 57% 1978 68% 85% R   R 62% 62%   Nebraska 1 R R R R 38% 38% 38% R R R
Nebraska 2 Lee Terry (R) Landslide R 61% 1998 66% 63% R   R 60% 60%   Nebraska 2 R R R R 40% 40% 40% R R R
Nebraska 3   Tom Osborn (R) Landslide R 76% 2000 82% 93% R   R 73% 73%   Nebraska 3 R R R R 27% 27% 27% R R R
Nevada 1   Shelley Berkley (D) Competitive   53% 1998 52% 54% D   D 56% 58%   Nevada 1 Competitive D D 56% 58% 58% D D D
Nevada 2 Jim Gibbons (R) Landslide R 64% 1996 65% 74% R   R 57% 61%   Nevada 2 R R R R 43% 39% 39% R R R
Nevada 3   Joe Porter  (R) Competitive   52% 2002   56%       R New 50%   Nevada 3 Competitive   R New 50% 50% New D D
New Hampshire 1   Jeb Bradley  (R) Tight R 54% 2002 53% 58% R   R 52% 52%   New Hampshire 1 R R R R 48% 48% 48% R R R
New Hampshire 2   Charles Bass (R) Competitive   53% 1994 56% 57% R   R 50% 50%   New Hampshire 2 Competitive R R 50% 50% 50% R R R
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
New Jersey 1   Robert Andrews (D) Landslide D 68% 1990 76% 93% D   D 68% 65%   New Jersey 1 D D D D 68% 65% 65% D D D
New Jersey 2 Frank LoBiondo (R) Tight R 54% 1994 66% 69% R   R 58% 56%   New Jersey 2 R R R R 58% 56% 56% D D D
New Jersey 3 James Saxton (R) Competitive 50% 1984 57% 64% R   R 57% 55%   New Jersey 3 Competitive R R 57% 55% 55% D D D
New Jersey 4 Christopher Smith (R) Comfortable R 55% 1980 63% 66% R   R 56% 52%   New Jersey 4 R R R R 56% 52% 52% D D D
New Jersey 5 Scott Garrett  (R) Comfortable R 56% 2002 65% 60% R   R 52% 54%   New Jersey 5 R R R R 48% 46% 46% R R R
New Jersey 6 Frank Pallone (D) Landslide D 65% 1988 68% 67% D   D 62% 63%   New Jersey 6 D D D D 62% 63% 63% D D D
New Jersey 7 Mike Ferguson (R) Tight R 53% 2000 52% 58% R   R 58% 51%   New Jersey 7 R R R R 58% 49% 49% D R R
New Jersey 8 Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D) Landslide D 63% 1996 67% 67% D   D 64% 62%   New Jersey 8 D D D D 64% 62% 62% D D D
New Jersey 9 Steve Rothman (D) Landslide D 65% 1996 68% 70% D   D 67% 65%   New Jersey 9 D D D D 67% 65% 65% D D D
New Jersey 10 U Donald Payne (D) Landslide D 83% 1988 88% 85% D   D 88% 84%   New Jersey 10 D D D D 88% 84% 84% D D D
New Jersey 11 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Landslide R 61% 1994 68% 72% R   R 54% 56%   New Jersey 11 R R R R 46% 44% 44% R R R
New Jersey 12 Rush Holt (D) Competitive 51% 1998 49% 60% D   D 54% 58%   New Jersey 12 Competitive D D 54% 58% 58% D D D
New Jersey 13   Robert Menendez (D) Landslide D 75% 1992 79% 78% D   D 76% 74%   New Jersey 13 D D D D 76% 74% 74% D D D
New Mexico 1   Heather Wilson (R) Competitive   49% 1998 50% 55% R   R 50% 50%   New Mexico 1 Competitive R R 50% 50% 50% R R R
New Mexico 2 Steve Pearce  (R) Comfortable R 56% 2002 58% 56% R   R 55% 55%   New Mexico 2 R R R R 45% 45% 45% R R R
New Mexico 3   Thomas Udall (D) Comfortable D 59% 1998 67% 100% D   D 54% 53%   New Mexico 3 D D D D 54% 53% 53% D D D
New York 1   Timothy Bishop (D) Competitive   51% 2002 56% 50% R   D 55% 54%   New York 1 Competitive R D 55% 54% 54% D D D
New York 2 Steve Israel (D) Tight D 54% 2000 48% 58% D   D 58% 59%   New York 2 D D D D 58% 59% 59% D D D
New York 3 Peter King (R) Competitive 53% 1992 60% 72% R   R 57% 54%   New York 3 Competitive R R 57% 54% 54% D D D
New York 4 Carolyn McCarthy (D) Comfortable D 55% 1996 61% 56% D   D 61% 61%   New York 4 D D D D 61% 61% 61% D D D
New York 5 Gary Ackerman (D) Landslide D 70% 1983 68% 93% D   D 64% 69%   New York 5 D D D D 64% 69% 69% D D D
New York 6 2  UU Gregory Meeks (D) Landslide D 91% 1998 100% 96% D   D 89% 88%   New York 6 D D D D 89% 88% 88% D D D
New York 7 Joseph Crowley (D) Landslide D 72% 1998 72% 73% D   D 73% 77%   New York 7 D D D D 73% 77% 77% D D D
New York 8 Jerrold Nadler (D) Landslide D 73% 1992 81% 74% D   D 78% 75%   New York 8 D D D D 78% 75% 75% D D D
New York 9 Anthony Weiner (D) Landslide D 64% 1998 68% 65% D   D 69% 68%   New York 9 D D D D 69% 68% 68% D D D
New York 10 Ed Towns (D) Landslide D 89% 1982 90% 98% D   D 90% 89%   New York 10 D D D D 90% 89% 89% D D D
New York 11 U Major Owens (D) Landslide D 80% 1982 87% 86% D   D 91% 84%   New York 11 D D D D 91% 84% 84% D D D
New York 12 Nydia Velazquez (D) Landslide D 80% 1992 87% 95% D   D 82% 78%   New York 12 D D D D 82% 78% 78% D D D
New York 13 Vito Fossella (R) Tight R 54% 1997 65% 70% R   R 55% 54%   New York 13 R R R R 55% 54% 54% D D D
New York 14 Carolyn Maloney (D) Landslide D 72% 1992 74% 75% D   D 73% 71%   New York 14 D D D D 73% 71% 71% D D D
New York 15 Charles Rangel (D) Landslide D 86% 1970 92% 87% D   D 92% 88%   New York 15 D D D D 92% 88% 88% D D D
New York 16 Jose Serrano (D) Landslide D 91% 1990 96% 92% D   D 94% 94%   New York 16 D D D D 94% 94% 94% D D D
New York 17 Eliot Engel (D) Landslide D 61% 1988 90% 62% D   D 88% 71%   New York 17 D D D D 88% 71% 71% D D D
New York 18 Nita Lowey (D) Landslide D 62% 1988 67% 92% D   D 62% 60%   New York 18 D D D D 62% 60% 60% D D D
New York 19 Sue Kelly (R) Comfortable R 57% 1994 61% 70% R   R 52% 52%   New York 19 R R R R 52% 48% 48% D R R
New York 20 John Sweeney (R) Landslide R 60% 1998 68% 73% R   R 54% 54%   New York 20 R R R R 46% 46% 46% R R R
New York 21 Michael McNulty (D) Landslide D 64% 1988 74% 75% D   D 59% 58%   New York 21 D D D D 59% 58% 58% D D D
New York 22 Maurice Hinchey (D) Comfortable D 56% 1992 62% 64% D   D 53% 53%   New York 22 D D D D 53% 53% 53% D D D
New York 23 John McHugh (R) Landslide R 61% 1992 74% 100% R   R 50% 51%   New York 23 R R R R 50% 49% 49% R R R
New York 24 Sherwood Boehlert (R) Tight R 54% 1982 61% 71% R   R 53% 51%   New York 24 R R R R 47% 49% 49% R R R
New York 25 U James Walsh (R) Comfortable R 57% 1988 69% 72% R   R 55% 52%   New York 25 R R R R 55% 52% 52% D D D
New York 26 Thomas Reynolds (R) Comfortable R 59% 1998 69% 74% R   R 56% 54%   New York 26 R R R R 44% 46% 46% R R R
New York 27 O Open (Jack Quinn) (R) Competitive 50% 1992 67% 69% R   R 62% 55%   New York 27 Competitive R R 62% 55% 55% D D D
New York 28 Louise Slaughter (D) Landslide D 62% 1986 66% 62% D   D 55% 61%   New York 28 D D D D 55% 61% 61% D D D
New York 29 O Open (Amo Houghton) (R) Competitive   50% 1986 77% 73% R   R 55% 56%   New York 29 Competitive R R 45% 44% 44% R R R
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
North Carolina 1 V G. K. Butterfield (D) Landslide D 61% 2002 66% 64% D   D 59% 59%   North Carolina 1 D D D D 59% 59% 59% D D D
North Carolina 2 Bob Etheridge (D) Competitive 53% 1996 58% 65% D   D 54% 52%   North Carolina 2 Competitive D D 46% 48% 48% R R R
North Carolina 3 Walter Jones, Jr. (R) Landslide R 64% 1994 61% 91% R   R 60% 63%   North Carolina 3 R R R R 40% 37% 37% R R R
North Carolina 4 David Price (D) Comfortable D 57% 1996 62% 61% D   D 53% 55%   North Carolina 4 D D D D 53% 55% 55% D D D
North Carolina 5 O Open (Richard Burr) (R) Comfortable R 60% 1994 93% 70% R   R 61% 65%   North Carolina 5 R R R R 39% 35% 35% R R R
North Carolina 6 2 Howard Coble (R) Landslide R 69% 1984 91% 90% R   R 63% 66%   North Carolina 6 R R R R 37% 34% 34% R R R
North Carolina 7 Mike McIntyre (D) Comfortable D 58% 1996 70% 71% D   D 51% 51%   North Carolina 7 D D D D 49% 49% 49% R R R
North Carolina 8 Robin Hayes (R) Tight R 53% 1998 55% 54% R   R 54% 53%   North Carolina 8 R R R R 46% 47% 47% R R R
North Carolina 9 Sue Myrick (R) Landslide R 65% 1994 69% 72% R   R 60% 62%   North Carolina 9 R R R R 40% 38% 38% R R R
North Carolina 10 O Open (Cass Ballenger) (R) Comfortable R 59% 1986 68% 59% R   R 66% 64%   North Carolina 10 R R R R 34% 36% 36% R R R
North Carolina 11 Charles Taylor (R) Tight R 55% 1990 55% 56% R   R 58% 59%   North Carolina 11 R R R R 42% 41% 41% R R R
North Carolina 12 Melvin Watt (D) Comfortable D 59% 1992 65% 65% D   D 63% 59%   North Carolina 12 D D D D 63% 59% 59% D D D
North Carolina 13   Brad Miller  (D) Competitive   52% 2002   55%       D New 51%   North Carolina 13 Competitive   D New 51% 51% New D D
North Dakota 1   Earl Pomeroy (D) Vulnerable   42% 1992 53% 52% D   D 65% 65%   North Dakota 1 Vulnerable D D 35% 35% 35% R R R
Ohio 1   Steve Chabot (R) Tight R 55% 1994 53% 65% R   R 52% 53%   Ohio 1 R R R R 52% 47% 47% D R R
Ohio 2   Rob Portman (R) Landslide R 67% 1993 74% 74% R   R 66% 64%   Ohio 2 R R R R 34% 36% 36% R R R
Ohio 3   Michael Turner  (R) Comfortable R 55% 2002 83% 59% D   R 52% 53%   Ohio 3 R R D R 52% 47% 47% D R R
Ohio 4   Michael Oxley (R) Landslide R 65% 1981 67% 67% R   R 63% 64%   Ohio 4 R R R R 37% 36% 36% R R R
Ohio 5   Paul Gilmor (R) Landslide R 63% 1988 70% 67% R   R 58% 61%   Ohio 5 R R R R 42% 39% 39% R R R
Ohio 6 UU Ted Strickland (D) Competitive 53% 1996 58% 59% D   D 57% 51%   Ohio 6 Competitive D D 43% 49% 49% R R R
Ohio 7   David Hobson (R) Landslide R 60% 1990 68% 68% R   R 59% 57%   Ohio 7 R R R R 41% 43% 43% R R R
Ohio 8   John Boehner (R) Landslide R 65% 1990 71% 71% R   R 64% 62%   Ohio 8 R R R R 36% 38% 38% R R R
Ohio 9   Marcy Kaptur (D) Landslide D 64% 1982 75% 74% D   D 57% 57%   Ohio 9 D D D D 57% 57% 57% D D D
Ohio 10   Dennis Kucinich (D) Landslide D 62% 1996 75% 74% D   D 56% 55%   Ohio 10 D D D D 56% 55% 55% D D D
Ohio 11 U Stephanie T. Jones (D) Landslide D 75% 1998 85% 76% D   D 85% 81%   Ohio 11 D D D D 85% 81% 81% D D D
Ohio 12   Patrick Tiberi (R) Comfortable R 55% 2000 53% 65% R   R 52% 53%   Ohio 12 R R R R 48% 47% 47% R R R
Ohio 13   Sherrod Brown (D) Landslide D 60% 1992 65% 69% D   D 52% 54%   Ohio 13 D D D D 48% 54% 54% R D D
Ohio 14   Steve LaTourette (R) Landslide R 62% 1994 69% 72% R   R 51% 54%   Ohio 14 R R R R 51% 46% 46% D R R
Ohio 15   Deborah Pryce (R) Comfortable R 59% 1992 67% 67% R   R 53% 55%   Ohio 15 R R R R 47% 45% 45% R R R
Ohio 16   Ralph Regula (R) Landslide R 61% 1972 69% 69% R   R 56% 56%   Ohio 16 R R R R 44% 44% 44% R R R
Ohio 17   Timothy Ryan  (D) Tight D 55% 2002 50% 51% D   D 60% 62%   Ohio 17 D D D D 60% 62% 62% D D D
Ohio 18   Bob Ney (R) Landslide R 62% 1994 64% 100% R   R 53% 58%   Ohio 18 R R R R 47% 42% 42% R R R
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
Oklahoma 1   John Sullivan (R) Comfortable R 58% 2002 54% 56% R   R 61% 61%   Oklahoma 1 R R R R 39% 39% 39% R R R
Oklahoma 2 O Open (Brad Carson) (D) Competitive 50% 2000 55% 74% D   D 52% 52%   Oklahoma 2 Competitive D D 48% 48% 48% R R R
Oklahoma 3 U Frank Lucas (R) Landslide R 63% 1994 59% 76% R   R 60% 65%   Oklahoma 3 R R R R 40% 35% 35% R R R
Oklahoma 4 U Tom Cole  (R) Comfortable R 56% 2002 65% 54% R   R 60% 60%   Oklahoma 4 R R R R 40% 40% 40% R R R
Oklahoma 5   Ernest Istook (R) Landslide R 61% 1992 68% 62% R   R 68% 61%   Oklahoma 5 R R R R 32% 39% 39% R R R
Oregon 1   David Wu (D) Tight D 54% 1998 58% 63% D   D 53% 52%   Oregon 1 D D D D 53% 52% 52% D D D
Oregon 2 Greg Walden (R) Landslide R 67% 1998 74% 72% R   R 63% 64%   Oregon 2 R R R R 37% 36% 36% R R R
Oregon 3 Earl Blumenauer (D) Landslide D 64% 1996 67% 67% D   D 63% 63%   Oregon 3 D D D D 63% 63% 63% D D D
Oregon 4 Peter DeFazio (D) Competitive 53% 1986 68% 64% D   D 54% 54%   Oregon 4 Competitive D D 46% 46% 46% R R R
Oregon 5   Darlene Hooley (D) Competitive   51% 1996 57% 55% D   D 52% 52%   Oregon 5 Competitive D D 48% 48% 48% R R R
Pennsylvania 1   Robert Brady (D) Landslide D 86% 1998 88% 86% D   D 87% 86%   Pennsylvania 1 D D D D 87% 86% 86% D D D
Pennsylvania 2 Chaka Fattah (D) Landslide D 72% 1994 98% 73% D   D 90% 89%   Pennsylvania 2 D D D D 90% 89% 89% D D D
Pennsylvania 3 Phil English (R) Comfortable R 56% 1994 61% 78% R   R 50% 52%   Pennsylvania 3 R R R R 50% 48% 48% R R R
Pennsylvania 4 Melissa Hart (R) Comfortable R 56% 2000 59% 64% R   R 51% 52%   Pennsylvania 4 R R R R 49% 48% 48% R R R
Pennsylvania 5 2 UU John Peterson (R) Landslide R 63% 1996 83% 87% R   R 60% 60%   Pennsylvania 5 R R R R 40% 40% 40% R R R
Pennsylvania 6 Jim Gerlach  (R) Competitive 50% 2002 66% 51% D   R 54% 51%   Pennsylvania 6 Competitive D R 46% 51% 51% R D D
Pennsylvania 7 Curt Weldon (R) Tight R 55% 1986 65% 66% R   R 52% 52%   Pennsylvania 7 R R R R 52% 52% 52% D D D
Pennsylvania 8 O Open (James Greenwood) (R) Competitive 50% 1992 59% 63% R   R 52% 53%   Pennsylvania 8 Competitive R R 52% 53% 53% D D D
Pennsylvania 9 Bill Shuster (R) Landslide R 66% 2001 52% 71% R   R 66% 64%   Pennsylvania 9 R R R R 34% 36% 36% R R R
Pennsylvania 10 UU Donald Sherwood (R) Comfortable R 58% 1998 53% 93% R   R 51% 58%   Pennsylvania 10 R R R R 49% 42% 42% R R R
Pennsylvania 11 UU Paul Kanjorski (D) Comfortable D 56% 1984 66% 56% D   D 52% 56%   Pennsylvania 11 D D D D 52% 56% 56% D D D
Pennsylvania 12 UU John Murtha (D) Landslide D 63% 1974 71% 74% D   D 53% 56%   Pennsylvania 12 D D D D 47% 56% 56% R D D
Pennsylvania 13 O Open (Joe Hoeffel) (D) Competitive 52% 1998 53% 51% D   D 56% 57%   Pennsylvania 13 Competitive D D 56% 57% 57% D D D
Pennsylvania 14 UU Mike Doyle (D) Landslide D 75% 1994 69% 100% D   D 59% 71%   Pennsylvania 14 D D D D 59% 71% 71% D D D
Pennsylvania 15 O Open (Pat Toomey) (R) Competitive 50% 1998 53% 57% R   R 51% 50%   Pennsylvania 15 Competitive R R 51% 50% 50% D D D
Pennsylvania 16 Joseph Pitts (R) Landslide R 66% 1996 67% 88% R   R 59% 63%   Pennsylvania 16 R R R R 41% 37% 37% R R R
Pennsylvania 17 Tim Holden (D) Vulnerable 46% 1992 72% 51% D   D 54% 57%   Pennsylvania 17 Vulnerable D D 46% 43% 43% R R R
Pennsylvania 18 Tim Murphy  (R) Tight R 55% 2002 69% 60% D   R 53% 52%   Pennsylvania 18 R R D R 53% 48% 48% D R R
Pennsylvania 19 UU Todd Russell Platts (R) Landslide R 66% 2000 73% 91% R   R 62% 62%   Pennsylvania 19 R R R R 38% 38% 38% R R R
Rhode Island 1   Patrick Kennedy (D) Comfortable D 59% 1994 67% 60% D   D 65% 64%   Rhode Island 1 D D D D 65% 64% 64% D D D
Rhode Island 2   James Langevin (D) Landslide D 65% 2000 62% 76% D   D 62% 61%   Rhode Island 2 D D D D 62% 61% 61% D D D
DISTRICT INFORMATION  2004 PROJECTIONS DISTRICT HISTORY
        Low   Low              
      2002-2004 Projected   Projected 1st Winning % Party Partisanship
State CD Codes Incumbent Result Party % Elected 2000 2002 Winners 2000 2002 *2004
South Carolina 1 U Henry Brown, Jr. (R) Comfortable R 60% 2000 60% 90% R   R 60% 60%   South Carolina 1 R R R R 40% 40% 40% R R R
South Carolina 2 U Joe Wilson (R) Landslide R 68% 2001 75% 84% R   R 58% 59%   South Carolina 2 R R R R 42% 41% 41% R R R
South Carolina 3 U J. Gresham Barrett  (R) Landslide R 65% 2002 68% 67% R   R 63% 64%   South Carolina 3 R R R R 37% 36% 36% R R R
South Carolina 4 O Open (Jim DeMint) (R) Comfortable R 60% 1998 80% 69% R   R 65% 65%   South Carolina 4 R R R R 35% 35% 35% R R R
South Carolina 5 John Spratt (D) Competitive 51% 1982 59% 86% D   D 56% 55%   South Carolina 5 Competitive D D 44% 45% 45% R R R
South Carolina 6   James Clyburn (D) Landslide D 63% 1992 72% 67% D   D 65% 60%   South Carolina 6 D D D D 65% 60% 60% D D D
South Dakota 1 V Stephanie Herseth (D) Vulnerable   43% 2004 73% 51% R   D 61% 61%   South Dakota 1 Vulnerable R D 39% 39% 39% R R R
Tennessee 1 2 Bill Jenkins (R) Landslide R 64% 1996 100% 100% R   R 61% 61%   Tennessee 1 R R R R 39% 39% 39% R R R
Tennessee 2 Jimmy Duncan (R) Landslide R 67% 1988 89% 79% R   R 58% 59%   Tennessee 2 R R R R 42% 41% 41% R R R
Tennessee 3 Zach Wamp (R) Landslide R 60% 1994 64% 65% R   R 54% 57%   Tennessee 3 R R R R 46% 43% 43% R R R
Tennessee 4 Lincoln Davis  (D) Competitive 51% 2002 66% 52% R   D 52% 50%   Tennessee 4 Competitive R D 48% 50% 50% R D D
Tennessee 5 Jim Cooper  (D) Landslide D 60% 2002 72% 64% D   D 61% 58%   Tennessee 5 D D D D 61% 58% 58% D D D
Tennessee 6 Bart Gordon (D) Comfortable D 56% 1984 62% 66% D   D 52% 51%   Tennessee 6 D D D D 48% 51% 51% R D D
Tennessee 7 UU Marsha Blackburn  (R) Landslide R 62% 2002 70% 71% R   R 55% 58%   Tennessee 7 R R R R 45% 42% 42% R R R
Tennessee 8 John Tanner (D) Comfortable D 60% 1988 72% 70% D   D 51% 52%   Tennessee 8 D D D D 51% 52% 52% D D D
Tennessee 9 2 Harold Ford Jr. (D) Landslide D 68% 1996 100% 84% D   D 79% 65%   Tennessee 9 D D D D 79% 65% 65% D D D
Texas 1   Max Sandlin (D) Vulnerable   39% 1996 56% 56% D   D 62% 63% 68% Texas 1 Vulnerable D D 38% 37% 32% R R R
Texas 2 Nick Lampson (D) Vulnerable 42% 1996 59% 59% D   D 53% 61% 63% Texas 2 Vulnerable D D 47% 39% 37% R R R
Texas 3 U Sam Johnson (R) Landslide R 71% 1991 72% 74% R   R 68% 71% 70% Texas 3 R R R R 32% 29% 30% R R R
Texas 4 S Ralph Hall* (R) Comfortable R 59% 2002 60% 58% D   R 70% 69% 66% Texas 4 R R D R 30% 31% 34% R R R
Texas 5 Jeb Hensarling  (R) Landslide R 65% 2002 54% 58% R   R 56% 60% 67% Texas 5 R R R R 44% 40% 33% R R R
Texas 6 Joe Barton (R) Landslide R 69% 1984 88% 70% R   R 69% 65% 67% Texas 6 R R R R 31% 35% 33% R R R
Texas 7 John Abney Culbertson (R) Landslide R 71% 2000 74% 89% R   R 71% 66% 70% Texas 7 R R R R 29% 34% 30% R R R
Texas 8 Kevin Brady (R) Landslide R 76% 1996 92% 93% R   R 76% 76% 70% Texas 8 R R R R 24% 24% 30% R R R
Texas 9 O, D Open (Chris Bell)  (D) Landslide D 63% 2002 60% 55% D   D 53% 54% 69% Texas 9 D D D D 47% 46% 69% R R D
Texas 10 O, U Open (Lloyd Doggett) (D) Vulnerable 39% 1994 85% 84% D   D 50% 55% 67% Texas 10 Vulnerable D D 50% 55% 33% R D R
Texas 11 O Open (Chet Edwards) (D) Vulnerable 31% 1990