Instructions for making Monopoly Politics 2004 projections Type of district Projections If a district became more partisan for the incumbent, we adjust the past winning percentage up.
1.  By modifying variables in cells shaded blue, you can make projections for the 2004 US House races. This column only affects TX, since that's the only state with 2004 p-ship changes.
2.   Summaries of the number and categories of the projections appear in cells N7 to T15.
3.  After the 2004 election, you can enter the winning party and percent in columns V and W.
4.  The spreadsheet tabulates the accuracy of projections in cells V8 to AA15.
5.  For more information, visit our report online at: http://www.fairvote.org/2004 Number of seats affected by parameters     Model:  twice uncontested run 3% ahead of p-ship
6. We've posted a User's Guide, all data used and a detailed description of our projection algorithm.         Labels Wrong Loser Rep:  pship-3%
      Total Projections     Projections by Party     Accuracy of Projections (after entering results) Cohort 0 1 2 3 Right Change Dem:  pship+3%
Var Description           # Incumbent Terms Category Applies To Diff Margin     Projection Num Projection Dem Rep Total Wrong   Result       Number 35 63 38 285 Trend = lastperf-priorperf
60% % decrease for "overrachieving" incumbent 3 and up 3% Competitive     Landslide 211 Landslide 109 102 211 Party Range Landslide Comfortable Tight Lost Over -- 37 25 229 Diff = lastperf - pship >0 means 2nd perf weaker for R, 2nd perf stronger for D Adjustment to past performance This section computes the number of seats for which affected by each parameter
1% Absolute reduction for "underachieving" incumbent 2 and up 5% Tight       Comfortable 107 Comfortable 37 69 106 211 211 0 0 0 211 Under -- 26 6 56 diff>0:  underachiever for R, over for D <0 vice versa (2nd stronger for R, weaker for D) based on achievement, terms served, contested races and better 2nd elections.
33% % adjustment to better 2nd election 2 10% Comfortable     Tight 33 Tight 9 24 33 107 107 0 0 0 107 Uncont -- -- 7 -- 2000 House performances scaled to Model selection diff<0:  over for R, under for D Diff = adjusted weakest perf - pship Code Num
35% % decrease if previous race uncontested 2 >10% Landslide     Total Projections 351 Projections 155 195 350 33 33 0 0 0 33 Better 2nd -- -- 26 -- 2000 to 2002 change in p-ship 0 35 Upper label 3-over3 1-over 2-uncont   2-better2 2-over
67% % decrease for "overachieving" new incumbent 1, 2     Competitive 71 Competitive 37 34 71     71 0 0   in Col AR     Category Code Projections by 5 different models   Calculation of projection for each model                                               End of projections calculations 1 63 Lower label 3-under23 1-under   2-under23
33% % increase for "underachieving" first-termer 1 50% National Dem     Vulnerable 13 Vulnerable 13 0 13     13 0 0     Open 0 2 38 Upper label 229 37 7   26 25
11% Buffer of absolute increase/decrease of 5.5% for open seats     Open 2-party share   Total Seats 435 Total Seats 205 229 434             Used to compute accuracy of projections             Used for 2004 projections Fresh 1 3 285 Lower label 56 26       6
ENTER 2004 results   Computed from results   Computed from results Computed from results   Computed from results   2-term 2 Open   Fresh       2-term       If contested, adjust perf by pship         Long-term     Twice-uncontested
2004     Winning % Winning   Diff in TX only   Range of Vuln Non-open Open-seat Results of projected categories   Min Diff Diff   2004 Performance   Long-term 3     Projection models                 If unc, treat prior race like freshman                     District Partisanship Data
    2004 2002-2004 1st Open 2000 2002 2000 2002 2000 2002 2004 Projection (cautious)   Low Projected Democratic 2004 Outcome      Accuracy     Wrong projs who losing party Landsl. Comf. Comp.     of proj. of   Terms 0 to 100 scale Worst 2-uncont 4 Open Fresh 2-term Long-term Twice-uncont     Perf-           Unc   If 2nd strong, adj. weakest.   Contested         Code P-ship 2000 2002 Used for summaries    3s Fresh 2s   2s 2s     2000 Presidential Election       2000 Black Hispanic   2002 2004 District P-ship
Codes State CD Incumbent Elected Seat % % Party Party P-ship P-ship Pship Party Result Performance Projection Party % Result Party %     Party % lost incs change proj. proj. proj Vuln. No proj range result   Served 2000 2002 Perf   Diff Error 0 1 2 3 4 Margin Proj pship >0 <0 Proj Diff >0 <0 Proj   Trend >0 <0 Perf Diff >0 <0 Proj Proj Diff >0 <0 Proj 2 +3% adj adj of projections Code     Uncont Uncont better2 Over/under Bush Vote (%) Gore Vote (%) Other Vote (%) Total Vote Voters Voters   Party Pship P-ship Party
  Alabama 1 Jo Bonner 2002 91% 60% R R 40% 39% 39% R 61% Landslide 39.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 8% 40% 40% 11% 1 44.6% 39.4% 40.5% 40.5% 36.1% 11% 44.6% 0% 39% 39% 39.4% -31% 18% 29% 28.7% 32% 40% 29% 40% 0% 41% 39% 40.5% 40.5% 0% 41% 39% 40.5% 36.1% -1% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 138938 (60.4%) 86142 (37.5%) 4798 (2.1%) 229878 #REF! #REF!   R 40% 39.1% R
  Alabama 2 Terry Everett 1992 68% 69% R R 38% 39% 39% R 63% Landslide 36.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 33% 31% 33% 13% 3 44.7% 36.6% 36.8% 36.8% 36.2% 11% 44.7% -8% 34% 37% 36.6% -6% 35% 37% 37.2% -2% 31% 32% 32% -7% 33% 37% 36.8% 36.8% -6% 34% 37% 36.8% 36.2% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 137168 (61.1%) 84435 (37.6%) 3061 (1.4%) 224664 #REF! #REF! R 40% 39.2% R
  Alabama 3 Mike Rogers 2002 87% 50% R R 44% 48% 48% Competitive 51% Competitive 49.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 18% 50% 50% 1% 1 50.0% 49.2% 50.7% 50.7% 45.2% 0% 50.0% 1% 49% 49% 49.2% -31% 28% 38% 38.1% 32% 50% 39% 50% 1% 51% 49% 50.7% 50.7% 1% 51% 49% 50.7% 45.2% 5% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 112320 (51.6%) 101431 (46.6%) 3769 (1.7%) 217520 #REF! #REF! R 49% 48.2% C
  Alabama 4 Robert Aderholt 1996 61% 87% R R 42% 39% 39% R 62% Landslide 38.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 37% 13% 37% 12% 3 44.5% 30.5% 38.3% 38.2% 36.0% 11% 44.5% -26% 22% 31% 30.5% -2% 38% 38% 38.3% -24% 13% 21% 21% -18% 22% 33% 33.1% 38.3% -2% 38% 38% 38.2% 36.0% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 141285 (60.7%) 87062 (37.4%) 4240 (1.8%) 232587 #REF! #REF! R 39% 39.0% R
  Alabama 5 Bud Cramer 1990 89% 73% D D 45% 45% 45% D 57% Comfortable 56.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 7.0 89% 73% 73% 7% 3 50.0% 54.6% 54.6% 56.6% 48.4% 0% 50.0% 28% 55% 64% 54.6% 44% 60% 75% 59.8% -16% 78% 73% 73% 28% 55% 72% 54.6% 54.6% 28% 57% 72% 56.6% 48.4% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 131608 (54.0%) 106685 (43.8%) 5241 (2.2%) 243534 #REF! #REF! D 46% 45.4% R
2 UU Alabama 6 Spencer Bachus 1992 88% 90% R R 31% 27% 27% R 76% Landslide 23.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 8% 10% 10% 26% 4 32.0% 21.1% 20.3% 20.0% 23.5% 36% 32.0% -16% 16% 21% 21.1% -19% 14% 20% 20.3% 3% 10% 9% 10% -16% 11% 21% 21.1% 20.3% -16% 11% 20% 20.0% 1 23.5% -4% 0% R-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 200818 (73.6%) 67975 (24.9%) 3997 (1.5%) 272790 #REF! #REF! R 27% 26.5% R
  Alabama 7 Artur Davis 2002 75% 92% D D 75% 68% 68% D 76% Landslide 76.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 68% 92% 68% 26% 1 62.4% 76.0% 67.7% 66.5% 70.9% 25% 62.4% 25% 76% 84% 76.0% 0% 68% 68% 67.7% 25% 84% 92% 84% 16% 73% 83% 73.3% 67.7% 0% 68% 67% 66.5% 70.9% -7% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-uncont 1 78670 (32.9%) 158580 (66.3%) 1827 (0.8%) 239077 #REF! #REF!   D 67% 67.9% D
  Alaska 1 Don Young 1973 70% 75% R R 29% 29% 29% R 69% Landslide 31.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 15.5 30% 25% 30% 19% 3 34.8% 28.0% 28.5% 31.4% 26.3% 30% 34.8% -4% 27% 28% 28.0% 1% 30% 30% 30.0% -5% 25% 27% 27% -2% 28% 29% 28.5% 28.5% 1% 31% 30% 31.4% 26.3% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 167398 (58.6%) 79004 (27.7%) 39158 (13.7%) 285560 29.3% R
  Arizona 1 Rick Renzi 2002 54% 49% R R 44% 47% 47% Competitive 50% Competitive 49.6%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 49% 51% 51% 0% 1 50.0% 49.6% 51.8% 51.8% 44.1% 0% 50.0% 4% 50% 48% 49.6% 2% 49% 48% 48.6% 1% 51% 50% 51% 4% 52% 48% 51.8% 51.8% 4% 52% 49% 51.8% 44.1% 3% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 102068 (50.5%) 91920 (45.5%) 7931 (3.9%) 201919 #REF! #REF! R 47% 47.1% C
  Arizona 2 Trent Franks 2002 66% 60% R R 42% 42% 42% R 58% Comfortable 41.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 35% 40% 40% 8% 1 47.9% 41.6% 41.6% 41.5% 39.4% 4% 47.9% -2% 41% 42% 41.6% -7% 38% 40% 40.0% 5% 40% 38% 40% -2% 41% 42% 41.6% 41.6% -2% 41% 41% 41.5% 39.4% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 119386 (56.5%) 86251 (40.8%) 5760 (2.7%) 211397 #REF! #REF! R 42% 42.4% R
U Arizona 3 John Shadegg 1994 64% 67% R R 45% 44% 44% R 60% Comfortable 40.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 35% 33% 35% 10% 3 49.7% 40.4% 40.6% 40.4% 41.2% 1% 49.7% -12% 36% 40% 40.4% -9% 38% 41% 41.1% -2% 33% 33% 33% -11% 34% 41% 40.6% 40.6% -9% 36% 40% 40.4% 41.2% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 114259 (54.5%) 89308 (42.6%) 6140 (2.9%) 209707 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.2% R
  Arizona 4 Ed Pastor 1991 69% 67% D D 62% 64% 64% D 65% Landslide 65.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.5 71% 67% 67% 15% 3 58.7% 65.3% 65.3% 65.5% 67.2% 17% 58.7% 3% 65% 66% 65.3% 7% 66% 69% 66.4% -3% 68% 67% 67% 3% 65% 66% 65.3% 65.3% 3% 65% 66% 65.5% 67.2% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 31542 (34.5%) 57198 (62.6%) 2598 (2.8%) 91338 #REF! #REF! D 63% 64.2% D
  Arizona 5 J.D. Hayworth 1994 61% 61% R R 44% 45% 45% R 58% Comfortable 42.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 39% 39% 39% 8% 3 50.0% 42.7% 42.8% 42.4% 41.7% 0% 50.0% -6% 41% 43% 42.7% -6% 41% 43% 42.8% 0% 39% 39% 39% -6% 40% 43% 42.8% 42.8% -6% 40% 42% 42.4% 41.7% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 121462 (53.6%) 97604 (43.1%) 7635 (3.4%) 226701 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.7% R
U Arizona 6 Jeff Flake 2000 54% 66% R R 46% 39% 39% R 62% Landslide 37.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 39% 34% 39% 12% 2 44.2% 37.2% 37.7% 40.4% 35.7% 12% 44.2% -5% 36% 37% 37.2% 1% 39% 39% 39.2% -5% 34% 36% 36% -3% 37% 38% 37.7% 37.7% 1% 40% 39% 40.4% 35.7% -7% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 118278 (60.9%) 72093 (37.1%) 3942 (2.0%) 194313 #REF! #REF! R 38% 38.7% R
  Arizona 7 Raul Grijalva 2002   59%   D New 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 59.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 #REF! 59% #REF! 9% 1 53.7% 59.1% #REF! #REF! 62.2% 7% 53.7% 0% 59% 59% 59.1% #### ### #### #REF! #REF! ### 59% #### #REF! #### #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! ### ### #REF! 62.2% ###### 0% D-Comfortable 1 #REF! 1-under #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 49343 (38.3%) 74176 (57.6%) 5271 (4.1%) 128790 #REF! #REF! D 58% 59.2% D
  Arizona 8 Jim Kolbe 1984 60% 63% R R 49% 48% 48% R 56% Comfortable 44.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 10.0 39% 37% 39% 6% 3 50.0% 43.9% 44.2% 44.0% 44.5% 0% 50.0% -11% 40% 44% 43.9% -9% 42% 45% 44.6% -2% 37% 37% 37% -10% 38% 44% 44.2% 44.2% -9% 40% 44% 44.0% 44.5% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 123585 (49.7%) 114055 (45.9%) 10814 (4.4%) 248454 #REF! #REF! R 48% 47.5% C
  Arkansas 1 Marion Berry 1996 60% 66% D D 52% 51% 51% D 54% Tight 54.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 4.0 59% 66% 59% 4% 3 50.0% 56.2% 55.4% 54.4% 54.2% 0% 50.0% 15% 56% 61% 56.2% 8% 54% 57% 53.9% 7% 64% 66% 64% 13% 55% 63% 55.4% 55.4% 8% 54% 58% 54.4% 54.2% -1% 0% D-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 105547 (47.9%) 109160 (49.6%) 5482 (2.5%) 220189 #REF! #REF! D 51% 51.2% C
  Arkansas 2 Vic Snyder 1996 58% 93% D D 49% 49% 49% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.7%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 58% 93% 58% 3% 3 50.0% 63.8% 52.1% 52.7% 52.4% 0% 50.0% 43% 64% 79% 63.8% 8% 52% 55% 52.1% 35% 81% 93% 81% 32% 60% 80% 59.9% 52.1% 8% 53% 57% 52.7% 52.4% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 116075 (49.3%) 112720 (47.8%) 6817 (2.9%) 235612 #REF! #REF! D 49% 49.4% C
  Arkansas 3 John Boozman 2001 56% 99% R R 39% 39% 39% R 74% Landslide 26.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 44% 1% 44% 24% 1 44.3% 26.3% 42.2% 44.9% 35.8% 11% 44.3% -38% 14% 26% 26.3% 5% 42% 40% 42.2% -43% 1% 15% 15% -24% 16% 31% 31.0% 42.2% 5% 45% 41% 44.9% 35.8% 0% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-uncont 1 138977 (59.5%) 86739 (37.2%) 7691 (3.3%) 233407 #REF! #REF! R 39% 38.8% R
UU Arkansas 4 Mike Ross 2000 51% 61% D D 52% 51% 51% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 50% 61% 50% 3% 2 50.0% 53.9% 52.8% 48.8% 53.7% 0% 50.0% 10% 54% 57% 53.9% -1% 50% 50% 50.1% 11% 57% 61% 57% 6% 53% 56% 52.8% 52.8% -1% 50% 49% 48.8% 53.7% -1% 0% D-Competitive 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 112341 (48.3%) 114149 (49.1%) 6083 (2.6%) 232573 #REF! #REF! D 51% 50.7% C
  California 1 Mike Thompson 1998 65% 64% D D 52% 53% 53% D 58% Comfortable 57.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 66% 64% 64% 8% 3 50.0% 56.9% 56.9% 57.6% 56.3% 0% 50.0% 11% 57% 61% 56.9% 13% 58% 62% 57.5% -2% 65% 64% 64% 11% 57% 63% 56.9% 56.9% 11% 58% 63% 57.6% 56.3% 1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 98506 (38.8%) 131376 (51.7%) 24220 (9.5%) 254102 #REF! #REF! D 54% 53.3% D
  California 2 Wally Herger 1986 66% 66% R R 36% 35% 35% R 65% Landslide 34.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 33% 34% 34% 15% 3 40.4% 34.6% 34.6% 34.6% 31.9% 19% 40.4% -1% 34% 35% 34.6% -2% 34% 34% 34.2% 1% 34% 34% 34% -1% 35% 35% 34.6% 34.6% -1% 35% 35% 34.6% 31.9% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 150196 (61.1%) 81861 (33.3%) 13609 (5.5%) 245666 #REF! #REF! R 35% 34.9% R
O California 3 Open (Doug Ose) 1998 1 56% 62% R R 46% 43% 43% Competitive 52% Competitive 48.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 44% 38% 44% 2% 0 48.4% 41.2% 41.9% 44.8% 39.9% 3% 48.4% -5% 39% 41% 41.2% 1% 44% 43% 43.5% -6% 38% 40% 40% -3% 41% 42% 41.9% 41.9% 1% 45% 43% 44.8% 39.9% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 142946 (54.9%) 107690 (41.3%) 9820 (3.8%) 260456 #REF! #REF! R 43% 42.9% R
  California 4 John Doolittle 1990 63% 65% R R 39% 37% 37% R 64% Landslide 36.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 35% 35% 35% 14% 3 42.8% 36.6% 36.6% 36.5% 34.3% 14% 42.8% -2% 36% 37% 36.6% -2% 36% 37% 36.5% 0% 35% 35% 35% -2% 36% 37% 36.6% 36.6% -2% 36% 36% 36.5% 34.3% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 172169 (58.9%) 104437 (35.7%) 15633 (5.3%) 292239 #REF! #REF! R 38% 37.3% R
  California 5 Robert Matsui 1978 69% 71% D D 59% 62% 62% D 65% Landslide 65.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 71% 71% 71% 15% 3 56.3% 64.8% 64.8% 65.5% 64.8% 13% 56.3% 9% 65% 68% 64.8% 9% 65% 68% 64.9% 0% 71% 71% 71% 9% 65% 70% 64.8% 64.8% 9% 65% 70% 65.5% 64.8% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 66011 (34.9%) 113987 (60.2%) 9239 (4.9%) 189237 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.8% D
  California 6 Lynn Woolsey 1992 64% 66% D D 64% 64% 64% D 64% Landslide 63.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 64% 66% 64% 14% 3 58.3% 64.7% 64.4% 63.9% 66.8% 17% 58.3% 3% 65% 66% 64.7% 0% 64% 64% 63.9% 2% 66% 66% 66% 2% 64% 65% 64.4% 64.4% 0% 64% 63% 63.9% 66.8% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 87082 (30.3%) 178746 (62.2%) 21514 (7.5%) 287342 #REF! #REF! D 64% 63.8% D
  California 7 George Miller 1974 76% 71% D D 71% 68% 68% D 69% Landslide 68.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 15.0 73% 71% 71% 19% 3 62.3% 68.7% 68.7% 68.9% 70.8% 25% 62.3% 3% 69% 70% 68.7% 6% 70% 71% 69.6% -3% 72% 71% 71% 3% 69% 70% 68.7% 68.7% 3% 69% 70% 68.9% 70.8% -3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 64477 (30.6%) 139421 (66.2%) 6824 (3.2%) 210722 #REF! #REF! D 68% 67.8% D
  California 8 Nancy Pelosi 1987 84% 80% D D 79% 79% 79% D 79% Landslide 79.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.5 84% 80% 80% 29% 3 73.2% 79.0% 79.0% 79.0% 81.7% 46% 73.2% 1% 79% 79% 79.0% 6% 81% 82% 80.5% -5% 81% 80% 80% 1% 79% 79% 79.0% 79.0% 1% 79% 79% 79.0% 81.7% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 37737 (14.8%) 196878 (77.1%) 20869 (8.2%) 255484 #REF! #REF! D 79% 78.7% D
  California 9 Barbara Lee 1998 85% 81% D D 81% 80% 80% D 81% Landslide 80.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 84% 81% 81% 31% 3 74.6% 80.5% 80.5% 80.6% 83.1% 49% 74.6% 1% 81% 81% 80.5% 4% 81% 83% 81.5% -3% 82% 81% 81% 1% 81% 80% 80.5% 80.5% 1% 81% 80% 80.6% 83.1% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 31464 (13.4%) 184030 (78.5%) 18868 (8.1%) 234362 #REF! #REF! D 80% 80.1% D
  California 10 Ellen Tauscher 1996 53% 76% D D 53% 57% 57% D 55% Comfortable 55.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 56% 76% 56% 5% 3 51.3% 63.0% 60.9% 55.0% 59.8% 3% 51.3% 19% 63% 69% 63.0% -1% 57% 56% 56.3% 20% 69% 76% 69% 12% 61% 68% 60.9% 60.9% -1% 56% 55% 55.0% 59.8% 3% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 109149 (41.3%) 145996 (55.2%) 9273 (3.5%) 264418 #REF! #REF! D 57% 56.8% D
UU California 11 Richard Pombo 1992 58% 60% R R 49% 46% 46% R 56% Comfortable 43.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 40% 40% 40% 6% 3 50.0% 44.1% 44.1% 43.7% 43.3% 0% 50.0% -7% 42% 44% 44.1% -7% 42% 44% 44.1% 0% 40% 40% 40% -7% 41% 44% 44.1% 44.1% -7% 41% 44% 43.7% 43.3% -3% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 125876 (52.9%) 106354 (44.7%) 5882 (2.5%) 238112 #REF! #REF! R 46% 46.3% R
  California 12 Tom Lantos 1980 75% 68% D D 69% 68% 68% D 67% Landslide 67.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.0 74% 68% 68% 17% 3 62.9% 68.2% 67.1% 67.1% 71.4% 26% 62.9% 0% 68% 68% 68.2% 5% 70% 72% 70.1% -5% 70% 68% 68% 0% 68% 67% 67.1% 67.1% 0% 68% 67% 67.1% 71.4% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 70468 (28.6%) 164490 (66.8%) 11103 (4.5%) 246061 #REF! #REF! D 68% 68.4% D
  California 13 Pete Stark 1972 70% 71% D D 69% 69% 69% D 69% Landslide 69.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 16.0 70% 71% 70% 19% 3 63.1% 69.4% 69.3% 69.3% 71.6% 26% 63.1% 2% 69% 70% 69.4% 2% 69% 70% 69.2% 1% 71% 71% 71% 2% 69% 70% 69.3% 69.3% 2% 69% 69% 69.3% 71.6% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 55803 (29.6%) 126477 (67.0%) 6472 (3.4%) 188752 #REF! #REF! D 69% 68.6% D
  California 14 Anna Eshoo 1992 70% 68% D D 65% 63% 63% D 65% Landslide 65.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 69% 68% 68% 15% 3 57.6% 64.8% 64.8% 65.1% 66.1% 15% 57.6% 5% 65% 67% 64.8% 6% 65% 67% 65.0% -1% 68% 68% 68% 5% 65% 67% 64.8% 64.8% 5% 65% 67% 65.1% 66.1% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 84637 (33.6%) 155165 (61.5%) 12451 (4.9%) 252253 #REF! #REF! D 63% 63.1% D
  California 15 Michael Honda 2000 54% 66% D D 59% 62% 62% D 62% Landslide 62.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 57% 66% 57% 12% 2 56.4% 63.2% 62.3% 56.1% 64.9% 13% 56.4% 4% 63% 64% 63.2% -5% 60% 59% 58.7% 9% 63% 66% 63% 1% 62% 62% 62.3% 62.3% -5% 60% 56% 56.1% 64.9% 3% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 74974 (36.2%) 124880 (60.3%) 7108 (3.4%) 206962 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.9% D
  California 16 Zoe Lofgren 1994 72% 67% D D 67% 65% 65% D 66% Landslide 66.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 71% 67% 67% 16% 3 60.0% 66.0% 66.0% 66.1% 68.5% 20% 60.0% 2% 66% 67% 66.0% 5% 67% 69% 67.2% -4% 68% 67% 67% 2% 66% 66% 66.0% 66.0% 2% 66% 66% 66.1% 68.5% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 57160 (33.3%) 109632 (63.9%) 4832 (2.8%) 171624 #REF! #REF! D 66% 65.5% D
  California 17 Sam Farr 1993 69% 68% D D 62% 61% 61% D 64% Landslide 64.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.5 68% 68% 68% 14% 3 56.0% 63.7% 63.7% 64.1% 64.5% 12% 56.0% 7% 64% 66% 63.7% 7% 64% 66% 63.7% 0% 68% 68% 68% 7% 64% 67% 63.7% 63.7% 7% 64% 67% 64.1% 64.5% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 68717 (33.0%) 124580 (59.9%) 14819 (7.1%) 208116 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.5% D
  California 18 Dennis Cardoza 2002 67% 51% D D 46% 55% 55% Competitive 52% Competitive 52.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 76% 51% 51% 2% 1 50.0% 52.4% 50.3% 50.3% 57.7% 0% 50.0% -3% 54% 52% 52.4% 21% 62% 69% 61.6% -24% 59% 51% 51% -3% 54% 50% 50.3% 50.3% -3% 53% 50% 50.3% 57.7% 9% 0% D-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 65105 (44.4%) 77908 (53.1%) 3690 (2.5%) 146703 #REF! #REF! D 55% 54.7% D
  California 19 George Radanovich 1994 65% 67% R R 40% 41% 41% R 61% Landslide 38.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 35% 33% 35% 11% 3 46.1% 38.0% 38.3% 38.5% 37.6% 8% 46.1% -8% 35% 38% 38.0% -5% 37% 39% 38.9% -3% 33% 34% 34% -7% 35% 38% 38.3% 38.3% -5% 36% 39% 38.5% 37.6% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 125465 (57.9%) 84559 (39.0%) 6823 (3.1%) 216847 #REF! #REF! R 41% 40.6% R
O California 20 Open (Cal Dooley) 1990 1 52% 63% D D 52% 56% 56% Competitive 51% Competitive 50.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 7.0 52% 63% 52% 1% 0 50.8% 58.7% 57.4% 51.3% 59.3% 2% 50.8% 7% 59% 61% 58.7% -4% 55% 54% 53.6% 11% 60% 63% 60% 4% 57% 59% 57.4% 57.4% -4% 55% 51% 51.3% 59.3% 0% 0% D-Competitive 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 46058 (43.6%) 57790 (54.7%) 1844 (1.7%) 105692 #REF! #REF! D 57% 56.3% D
  California 21 Devin Nunes 2002   70%   R New 38% 38% R 65% Landslide 35.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 ###### 30% ##### 15% 1 43.8% 35.4% ##### #VALUE! 35.3% 12% 43.8% -9% 32% 35% 35.4% #### ### #### ###### ##### 30% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 35.3% ###### 0% R-Landslide 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 107645 (60.5%) 65268 (36.7%) 5120 (2.9%) 178033 #REF! #REF! R 39% 38.3% R
UU California 22 Bill Thomas 1978 72% 73% R R 36% 35% 35% R 68% Landslide 32.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 28% 27% 28% 18% 3 40.5% 32.3% 32.4% 32.0% 32.0% 19% 40.5% -8% 29% 32% 32.3% -7% 30% 33% 32.6% -1% 27% 27% 27% -8% 28% 32% 32.4% 32.4% -7% 29% 32% 32.0% 32.0% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141156 (64.3%) 73338 (33.4%) 5043 (2.3%) 219537 #REF! #REF! R 35% 35.0% R
  California 23 Lois Capps 1998 53% 59% D D 47% 55% 55% D 57% Comfortable 56.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 62% 59% 59% 7% 3 50.0% 56.4% 56.4% 56.6% 58.1% 0% 50.0% 4% 56% 58% 56.4% 7% 57% 59% 57.3% -3% 60% 59% 59% 4% 56% 58% 56.4% 56.4% 4% 57% 58% 56.6% 58.1% 8% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 90550 (40.4%) 119795 (53.5%) 13574 (6.1%) 223919 #REF! #REF! D 55% 55.1% D
  California 24 Elton Gallegly 1986 54% 65% R R 50% 44% 44% R 57% Comfortable 42.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 9.0 40% 35% 40% 7% 3 49.9% 41.3% 41.8% 42.7% 41.4% 0% 49.9% -10% 38% 41% 41.3% -4% 41% 43% 43.0% -5% 35% 37% 37% -8% 38% 42% 41.8% 41.8% -4% 41% 43% 42.7% 41.4% -6% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 140755 (53.6%) 112436 (42.8%) 9220 (3.5%) 262411 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.4% R
  California 25 Buck McKeon 1992 62% 65% R R 47% 43% 43% R 60% Comfortable 40.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 34% 35% 35% 10% 3 49.0% 40.7% 40.7% 40.1% 40.5% 2% 49.0% -8% 38% 41% 40.7% -9% 37% 40% 40.5% 1% 35% 35% 35% -8% 36% 41% 40.7% 40.7% -8% 36% 40% 40.1% 40.5% -3% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 108627 (55.5%) 81893 (41.9%) 5055 (2.6%) 195575 #REF! #REF! R 44% 43.5% R
  California 26 David Dreier 1980 57% 64% R R 51% 45% 45% R 58% Comfortable 42.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 12.0 37% 36% 37% 8% 3 50.0% 42.4% 42.5% 42.2% 42.4% 0% 50.0% -9% 39% 42% 42.4% -8% 40% 43% 42.8% -1% 36% 37% 37% -9% 38% 43% 42.5% 42.5% -8% 38% 42% 42.2% 42.4% -6% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 127468 (53.2%) 105023 (43.8%) 7044 (2.9%) 239535 #REF! #REF! R 45% 45.4% R
  California 27 Brad Sherman 1996 66% 62% D D 60% 62% 62% D 62% Landslide 61.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 68% 62% 62% 12% 3 56.4% 61.9% 61.9% 61.9% 64.9% 13% 56.4% 0% 62% 62% 61.9% 6% 64% 66% 63.8% -6% 64% 62% 62% 0% 62% 61% 61.9% 61.9% 0% 62% 61% 61.9% 64.9% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 70557 (36.3%) 117120 (60.3%) 6568 (3.4%) 194245 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.9% D
  California 28 Howard Berman 1982 84% 71% D D 73% 74% 74% D 70% Landslide 70.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 86% 71% 71% 20% 3 69.0% 72.4% 70.4% 70.4% 77.5% 38% 69.0% -3% 73% 72% 72.4% 11% 78% 82% 78.2% -14% 76% 71% 71% -3% 73% 70% 70.4% 70.4% -3% 73% 70% 70.4% 77.5% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 36762 (23.9%) 112332 (72.9%) 5021 (3.3%) 154115 #REF! #REF! D 75% 74.5% D
  California 29 Adam Schiff 2000 53% 63% D D 56% 59% 59% D 60% Comfortable 59.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 57% 63% 57% 10% 2 54.0% 60.5% 59.8% 55.6% 62.5% 8% 54.0% 3% 60% 62% 60.5% -3% 59% 58% 57.5% 6% 61% 63% 61% 1% 60% 60% 59.8% 59.8% -3% 58% 56% 55.6% 62.5% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 79210 (38.4%) 119396 (57.9%) 7671 (3.7%) 206277 #REF! #REF! D 60% 59.5% D
  California 30 Henry Waxman 1974 76% 70% D D 74% 70% 70% D 70% Landslide 70.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 15.0 71% 70% 70% 20% 3 64.3% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 72.8% 29% 64.3% 0% 70% 70% 70.0% 1% 70% 71% 70.2% -1% 71% 70% 70% 0% 70% 69% 70.0% 70.0% 0% 70% 69% 70.0% 72.8% -5% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 81336 (27.8%) 199282 (68.2%) 11464 (3.9%) 292082 #REF! #REF! D 70% 69.8% D
  California 31 Xavier Becerra 1992 83% 81% D D 78% 79% 79% D 80% Landslide 79.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 85% 81% 81% 30% 3 73.3% 79.5% 79.5% 79.7% 81.8% 47% 73.3% 2% 80% 80% 79.5% 6% 81% 83% 80.7% -3% 82% 81% 81% 2% 80% 80% 79.5% 79.5% 2% 80% 80% 79.7% 81.8% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 19400 (18.8%) 79560 (77.2%) 4156 (4.0%) 103116 #REF! #REF! D 79% 78.8% D
U California 32 Hilda Solis 2000 75% 69% D D 72% 68% 68% D 68% Landslide 68.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 72% 69% 69% 18% 2 62.8% 68.4% 68.4% 68.5% 71.3% 26% 62.8% 0% 68% 69% 68.4% 3% 69% 70% 69.4% -3% 70% 69% 69% 0% 68% 68% 68.4% 68.4% 0% 68% 68% 68.5% 71.3% -3% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-over 45018 (31.2%) 96217 (66.7%) 3057 (2.1%) 144292 #REF! #REF! D 68% 68.3% D
U California 33 Diane Watson 2001 75% 83% D D 86% 85% 85% D 83% Landslide 83.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 74% 83% 74% 33% 1 79.2% 83.2% 78.7% 72.9% 87.7% 58% 79.2% -2% 84% 83% 83.2% -11% 81% 77% 77.5% 9% 80% 83% 80% -5% 83% 79% 78.7% 78.7% -11% 80% 73% 72.9% 87.7% -1% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 24214 (13.5%) 148978 (83.1%) 6067 (3.4%) 179259 #REF! #REF! D 85% 84.7% D
  California 34 Lucille Roybal-Allard 1992 85% 74% D D 85% 74% 74% D 73% Landslide 72.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 74% 74% 74% 23% 3 68.5% 74.0% 72.9% 72.5% 77.0% 37% 68.5% 0% 74% 74% 74.0% 0% 74% 74% 73.7% 0% 74% 74% 74% 0% 74% 73% 72.9% 72.9% 0% 74% 73% 72.5% 77.0% -11% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 27384 (25.8%) 76876 (72.4%) 1901 (1.8%) 106161 #REF! #REF! D 74% 74.0% D
  California 35 Maxine Waters 1990 87% 77% D D 88% 83% 83% D 76% Landslide 76.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 81% 77% 77% 26% 3 77.7% 79.3% 76.4% 76.4% 86.2% 55% 77.7% -6% 81% 79% 79.3% -2% 83% 82% 81.9% -4% 79% 77% 77% -6% 81% 76% 76.4% 76.4% -6% 81% 76% 76.4% 86.2% -5% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 24495 (16.9%) 118450 (81.6%) 2262 (1.6%) 145207 #REF! #REF! D 83% 83.2% D
  California 36 Jane Harman 2000 48% 61% D D 53% 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 58.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 54% 61% 54% 9% 2 53.2% 59.6% 58.8% 53.3% 61.7% 6% 53.2% 3% 60% 60% 59.6% -4% 57% 56% 55.8% 7% 59% 61% 59% 0% 59% 58% 58.8% 58.8% -4% 57% 53% 53.3% 61.7% 6% 0% D-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 88619 (38.7%) 130752 (57.1%) 9423 (4.1%) 228794 #REF! #REF! D 59% 58.7% D
  California 37 Juanita Mill-McDonald 1996 82% 73% D D 86% 78% 78% D 72% Landslide 71.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 74% 73% 73% 22% 3 72.0% 74.4% 71.9% 71.9% 80.5% 44% 72.0% -5% 76% 74% 74.4% -3% 76% 75% 75.4% -2% 73% 73% 73% -5% 76% 72% 71.9% 71.9% -5% 76% 72% 71.9% 80.5% -8% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 31832 (21.5%) 112235 (75.9%) 3712 (2.5%) 147779 #REF! #REF! D 78% 77.5% D
UU California 38 Grace Napolitano 1998 71% 71% D D 70% 72% 72% D 70% Landslide 70.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 73% 71% 71% 20% 3 66.2% 71.3% 70.1% 70.1% 74.7% 32% 66.2% -1% 72% 71% 71.3% 2% 72% 73% 72.2% -2% 72% 71% 71% -1% 72% 70% 70.1% 70.1% -1% 71% 70% 70.1% 74.7% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 41706 (27.9%) 104612 (70.1%) 2929 (2.0%) 149247 #REF! #REF! D 72% 71.7% D
  California 39 Linda Sanchez 2002 48% 55% D D 60% 64% 64% D 58% Comfortable 57.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 52% 55% 52% 8% 1 58.5% 57.8% 52.9% 51.1% 67.0% 17% 58.5% -9% 61% 58% 57.8% -12% 60% 56% 56.0% 3% 54% 55% 54% -10% 61% 53% 52.9% 52.9% -12% 59% 51% 51.1% 67.0% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 56067 (35.5%) 98478 (62.4%) 3390 (2.1%) 157935 #REF! #REF! D 64% 64.0% D
  California 40 Ed Royce 1992 63% 68% R R 46% 42% 42% R 61% Landslide 39.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 34% 32% 34% 11% 3 47.9% 39.1% 39.3% 39.0% 39.4% 4% 47.9% -10% 36% 39% 39.1% -9% 37% 40% 39.6% -2% 32% 33% 33% -10% 34% 39% 39.3% 39.3% -9% 35% 39% 39.0% 39.4% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 119443 (56.4%) 86460 (40.8%) 5886 (2.8%) 211789 #REF! #REF! R 42% 42.4% R
U California 41 Jerry Lewis 1978 80% 67% R R 42% 43% 43% R 61% Landslide 38.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 21% 33% 33% 11% 3 48.2% 39.4% 39.4% 38.7% 39.7% 4% 48.2% -10% 36% 39% 39.4% -22% 28% 36% 35.6% 12% 33% 29% 33% -10% 34% 39% 39.4% 39.4% -10% 34% 39% 38.7% 39.7% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 114498 (56.3%) 83584 (41.1%) 5116 (2.5%) 203198 #REF! #REF! R 43% 42.7% R
  California 42 Gary Miller 1998 59% 68% R R 49% 40% 40% R 63% Landslide 37.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 33% 32% 33% 13% 3 46.0% 37.8% 37.9% 37.4% 37.5% 8% 46.0% -8% 35% 38% 37.8% -8% 35% 38% 38.0% 0% 32% 33% 33% -8% 34% 38% 37.9% 37.9% -8% 34% 37% 37.4% 37.5% -8% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 139655 (58.9%) 92169 (38.9%) 5157 (2.2%) 236981 #REF! #REF! R 42% 40.5% R
  California 43 Joe Baca 1999 60% 66% D D 60% 65% 65% D 66% Landslide 65.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.5 66% 66% 66% 16% 2 59.9% 65.7% 65.6% 65.5% 68.4% 20% 59.9% 1% 66% 66% 65.7% 0% 65% 66% 65.5% 1% 66% 66% 66% 1% 66% 65% 65.6% 65.6% 0% 65% 65% 65.5% 68.4% 6% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 41272 (34.3%) 76710 (63.8%) 2293 (1.9%) 120275 #REF! #REF! D 65% 65.4% D
  California 44 Ken Calvert 1992 74% 63% R R 46% 46% 46% R 58% Comfortable 42.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 26% 37% 37% 8% 3 50.0% 42.6% 42.6% 42.0% 42.6% 0% 50.0% -9% 40% 43% 42.6% -20% 32% 39% 39.0% 11% 37% 33% 37% -9% 38% 43% 42.6% 42.6% -9% 38% 42% 42.0% 42.6% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 101897 (53.3%) 84048 (44.0%) 5143 (2.7%) 191088 #REF! #REF! R 46% 45.6% R
  California 45 Mary Bono 1998 59% 65% R R 49% 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 40% 35% 40% 5% 3 50.0% 43.8% 44.3% 44.8% 45.2% 0% 50.0% -13% 39% 44% 43.8% -8% 43% 45% 45.4% -5% 35% 36% 36% -12% 37% 44% 44.3% 44.3% -8% 41% 45% 44.8% 45.2% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 93802 (51.2%) 85427 (46.6%) 4029 (2.2%) 183258 #REF! #REF! R 48% 48.2% C
  California 46 Dana Rohrabacher 1988 62% 62% R R 42% 43% 43% R 58% Comfortable 41.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 8.0 39% 38% 39% 8% 3 48.8% 41.6% 41.7% 41.6% 40.3% 2% 48.8% -5% 40% 42% 41.6% -4% 41% 42% 41.9% -1% 38% 39% 39% -5% 40% 42% 41.7% 41.7% -4% 40% 42% 41.6% 40.3% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 145729 (54.8%) 110984 (41.7%) 9413 (3.5%) 266126 #REF! #REF! R 43% 43.3% R
  California 47 Loretta Sanchez 1996 60% 61% D D 57% 58% 58% D 59% Comfortable 59.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 62% 61% 61% 9% 3 52.5% 58.9% 58.9% 59.1% 61.0% 5% 52.5% 3% 59% 60% 58.9% 4% 59% 60% 59.2% -1% 61% 61% 61% 3% 59% 60% 58.9% 58.9% 3% 59% 60% 59.1% 61.0% 1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 43752 (41.5%) 59515 (56.4%) 2257 (2.1%) 105524 #REF! #REF! D 58% 58.0% D
  California 48 Christopher Cox 1988 66% 68% R R 41% 41% 41% R 62% Landslide 38.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 35% 32% 35% 12% 3 46.6% 37.9% 38.3% 38.5% 38.1% 7% 46.6% -10% 35% 38% 37.9% -7% 37% 39% 38.9% -3% 32% 33% 33% -9% 34% 38% 38.3% 38.3% -7% 36% 38% 38.5% 38.1% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 156340 (57.8%) 106809 (39.5%) 7421 (2.7%) 270570 #REF! #REF! R 41% 41.1% R
  California 49 Darrell Issa 2000 61% 78% R R 38% 40% 40% R 64% Landslide 36.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 41% 22% 41% 14% 2 45.9% 34.3% 36.4% 42.2% 37.4% 8% 45.9% -18% 28% 34% 34.3% 1% 41% 41% 40.9% -19% 22% 28% 28% -12% 29% 36% 36.4% 36.4% 1% 42% 41% 42.2% 37.4% 3% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 114193 (58.6%) 75561 (38.8%) 5217 (2.7%) 194971 #REF! #REF! R 40% 40.4% R
  California 50 Duke Cunningham 1990 64% 64% R R 43% 44% 44% R 59% Comfortable 41.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 7.0 37% 36% 37% 9% 3 49.6% 41.3% 41.5% 41.3% 41.1% 1% 49.6% -8% 38% 41% 41.3% -7% 39% 42% 41.8% -1% 36% 36% 36% -8% 37% 41% 41.5% 41.5% -7% 38% 41% 41.3% 41.1% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 136311 (53.9%) 107436 (42.5%) 8996 (3.6%) 252743 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.1% R
  California 51 Bob Filner 1992 68% 58% D D 61% 58% 58% D 57% Comfortable 56.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 65% 58% 58% 7% 3 53.0% 58.1% 56.9% 56.9% 61.5% 6% 53.0% -1% 58% 58% 58.1% 7% 61% 63% 60.8% -8% 60% 58% 58% -1% 58% 57% 56.9% 56.9% -1% 58% 57% 56.9% 61.5% -3% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 61008 (40.6%) 85561 (56.9%) 3819 (2.5%) 150388 #REF! #REF! D 59% 58.5% D
  California 52 Duncan Hunter 1980 65% 70% R R 43% 41% 41% R 62% Landslide 37.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.0 33% 30% 33% 12% 3 46.6% 37.4% 37.8% 37.9% 38.1% 7% 46.6% -11% 34% 37% 37.4% -8% 36% 38% 38.4% -3% 30% 31% 31% -10% 32% 38% 37.8% 37.8% -8% 34% 38% 37.9% 38.1% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 143081 (57.3%) 98633 (39.5%) 7833 (3.1%) 249547 #REF! #REF! R 41% 41.1% R
  California 53 Susan Davis 2000 50% 62% D D 55% 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 59.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 54% 62% 54% 9% 2 53.6% 60.1% 59.2% 52.9% 62.1% 7% 53.6% 3% 60% 61% 60.1% -5% 57% 56% 55.7% 8% 59% 62% 59% 0% 59% 58% 59.2% 59.2% -5% 57% 53% 52.9% 62.1% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 74526 (37.5%) 114435 (57.5%) 9944 (5.0%) 198905 #REF! #REF! D 59% 59.1% D
  Colorado 1 Diana DeGette 1996 69% 66% D D 66% 62% 62% D 63% Landslide 63.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 65% 66% 65% 13% 3 56.8% 63.6% 63.5% 63.4% 65.3% 14% 56.8% 4% 64% 65% 63.6% 3% 63% 64% 63.2% 1% 66% 66% 66% 4% 63% 65% 63.5% 63.5% 3% 63% 64% 63.4% 65.3% -4% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 72455 (32.8%) 134187 (60.7%) 14430 (6.5%) 221072 #REF! #REF! D 65% 62.3% D
  Colorado 2 Mark Udall 1998 55% 60% D D 52% 54% 54% D 55% Tight 54.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 3.0 56% 60% 56% 5% 3 50.0% 55.8% 55.4% 54.7% 56.7% 0% 50.0% 6% 56% 58% 55.8% 3% 55% 55% 54.5% 4% 59% 60% 59% 5% 55% 58% 55.4% 55.4% 3% 55% 55% 54.7% 56.7% 1% 0% D-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 103518 (42.6%) 126607 (52.1%) 13107 (5.4%) 243232 #REF! #REF! D 53% 53.7% D
O Colorado 3 Open (Scott McInnis) 1992 1 66% 66% R R 44% 41% 41% R 54% Tight 46.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Change 0% 50% 6.0 34% 34% 34% 4% 0 46.1% 38.5% 38.5% 38.0% 37.6% 8% 46.1% -6% 36% 38% 38.5% -6% 36% 38% 38.5% 0% 34% 34% 34% -6% 35% 38% 38.5% 38.5% -6% 35% 38% 38.0% 37.6% 0% 0% R-Tight 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 140191 (53.5%) 102100 (39.0%) 19585 (7.5%) 261876 #REF! #REF! R 44% 40.6% R
  Colorado 4 Marilyn Musgrave 2002 79% 55% R R 40% 38% 38% R 57% Comfortable 42.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 18% 45% 45% 7% 1 43.6% 42.7% 46.1% 46.1% 35.1% 13% 43.6% 7% 43% 40% 42.7% -20% 25% 32% 31.6% 27% 45% 36% 45% 7% 46% 40% 46.1% 46.1% 7% 46% 41% 46.1% 35.1% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 145056 (57.1%) 92602 (36.5%) 16271 (6.4%) 253929 #REF! #REF! R 39% 38.1% R
  Colorado 5 Joel Hefley 1986 83% 69% R R 37% 33% 33% R 68% Landslide 32.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 14% 31% 31% 18% 3 38.4% 32.1% 32.1% 32.0% 29.9% 23% 38.4% -2% 31% 32% 32.1% -19% 20% 26% 26.5% 17% 31% 25% 31% -2% 32% 32% 32.1% 32.1% -2% 32% 32% 32.0% 29.9% -4% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 151751 (63.3%) 74940 (31.3%) 13116 (5.5%) 239807 #REF! #REF! R 36% 32.9% R
  Colorado 6 Tom Tancredo 1998 54% 67% R R 49% 39% 39% R 62% Landslide 37.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 36% 33% 36% 12% 3 44.2% 36.8% 37.1% 37.6% 35.7% 12% 44.2% -6% 35% 37% 36.8% -3% 37% 38% 37.8% -3% 33% 34% 34% -5% 35% 37% 37.1% 37.1% -3% 37% 38% 37.6% 35.7% -10% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 169205 (60.2%) 104126 (37.1%) 7580 (2.7%) 280911 #REF! #REF! R 42% 38.7% R
  Colorado 7 Bob Beauprez 2002   47%   R New 51% 51% Competitive 48% Competitive 52.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 ###### 53% ##### 2% 1 50.0% 52.2% ##### #VALUE! 48.4% 0% 50.0% 1% 52% 52% 52.2% #### ### #### ###### ##### 53% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 48.4% ###### 0% R-Competitive 1 #VALUE! 1-under #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 101632 (48.9%) 103592 (49.8%) 2783 (1.3%) 208007 #REF! #REF! R 53% 51.4% C
  Connecticut 1 John Larson 1998 72% 67% D D 65% 64% 64% D 65% Landslide 64.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 71% 67% 67% 15% 3 58.0% 64.6% 64.6% 64.8% 66.5% 16% 58.0% 3% 65% 66% 64.6% 7% 66% 68% 65.9% -4% 68% 67% 67% 3% 65% 66% 64.6% 64.6% 3% 65% 66% 64.8% 66.5% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 96411 (33.3%) 178977 (61.9%) 13731 (4.7%) 289119 #REF! #REF! 63.5% D
  Connecticut 2 Rob Simmons 2000 51% 54% R R 58% 56% 56% Competitive 47% Competitive 52.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 47% 46% 47% 3% 2 50.1% 52.4% 52.5% 52.2% 52.6% 0% 50.1% -10% 49% 52% 52.4% -8% 50% 53% 52.8% -1% 46% 46% 46% -9% 47% 53% 52.5% 52.5% -8% 48% 52% 52.2% 52.6% -2% 0% R-Competitive 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 119184 (39.5%) 162762 (54.0%) 19587 (6.5%) 301533 #REF! #REF! 55.6% D
  Connecticut 3 Rosa DeLauro 1990 72% 66% D D 62% 62% 62% D 63% Landslide 63.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 71% 66% 66% 13% 3 56.1% 62.9% 62.9% 63.2% 64.6% 12% 56.1% 4% 63% 64% 62.9% 9% 65% 68% 64.8% -6% 67% 66% 66% 4% 63% 65% 62.9% 62.9% 4% 63% 65% 63.2% 64.6% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 96446 (34.4%) 168196 (60.0%) 15455 (5.5%) 280097 #REF! #REF! 61.6% D
  Connecticut 4 Christopher Shays 1987 58% 64% R R 57% 55% 55% Competitive 51% Competitive 48.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 8.5 40% 36% 40% 1% 3 50.0% 48.4% 48.9% 48.9% 51.8% 0% 50.0% -19% 42% 48% 48.4% -15% 45% 50% 49.9% -5% 36% 37% 37% -18% 38% 49% 48.9% 48.9% -15% 41% 49% 48.9% 51.8% -2% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 120140 (43.2%) 148022 (53.2%) 10219 (3.7%) 278381 #REF! #REF! 54.8% D
  Connecticut 5 Nancy Johnson 1982 54% 54% R R 55% 54% 54% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 11.0 45% 46% 46% 0% 3 50.0% 51.0% 51.0% 50.5% 50.6% 0% 50.0% -8% 48% 51% 51.0% -8% 48% 51% 50.9% 0% 46% 46% 46% -8% 47% 51% 51.0% 51.0% -8% 47% 50% 50.5% 50.6% -1% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 121424 (43.1%) 146599 (52.0%) 13887 (4.9%) 281910 #REF! #REF! 53.6% D
  Delaware 1 Michael Castle 1992 68% 72% R R 57% 57% 57% R 53% Tight 47.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 6.0 32% 28% 32% 3% 3 51.2% 47.2% 47.7% 47.0% 53.7% 2% 51.2% -29% 37% 47% 47.2% -24% 40% 49% 48.7% -5% 28% 29% 29% -27% 30% 48% 47.7% 47.7% -24% 33% 47% 47.0% 53.7% 0% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 137081 (41.8%) 180638 (55.1%) 10151 (3.1%) 327870 56.7% D
  Florida 1 Jeff Miller 2001 66% 75% R R 32% 33% 33% R 70% Landslide 30.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 35% 25% 35% 20% 1 38.2% 30.3% 31.3% 35.9% 29.7% 24% 38.2% -7% 28% 30% 30.3% 2% 34% 33% 34.2% -9% 25% 29% 29% -4% 30% 31% 31.3% 31.3% 2% 36% 34% 35.9% 29.7% 1% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 173896 (68.9%) 78469 (31.1%)   (0.0%) 252365 #REF! #REF! 32.7% R
  Florida 2 Allen Boyd 1996 72% 67% D D 51% 49% 49% D 56% Comfortable 56.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 70% 67% 67% 6% 3 50.0% 54.8% 54.8% 56.1% 51.9% 0% 50.0% 18% 55% 61% 54.8% 21% 56% 63% 55.8% -3% 68% 67% 67% 18% 55% 66% 54.8% 54.8% 18% 56% 66% 56.1% 51.9% -2% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 132275 (52.7%) 118758 (47.3%)   (0.0%) 251033 #REF! #REF! 48.9% C
U Florida 3 Corrine Brown 1992 58% 59% D D 63% 67% 67% D 58% Comfortable 58.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 62% 59% 59% 8% 3 61.2% 61.7% 58.3% 58.3% 69.7% 22% 61.2% -7% 64% 62% 61.7% -5% 65% 63% 63.3% -2% 60% 59% 59% -7% 64% 58% 58.3% 58.3% -7% 64% 58% 58.3% 69.7% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 59144 (34.9%) 110501 (65.1%)   (0.0%) 169645 #REF! #REF! 66.7% D
U Florida 4 Ander Crenshaw 2000 67% 100% R R 38% 36% 36% R 66% Landslide 34.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 31% 0% 31% 16% 2 41.3% 24.1% 34.3% 34.0% 32.8% 17% 41.3% -35% 12% 24% 24.1% -4% 33% 34% 34.3% -31% 0% 11% 11% -25% 12% 27% 27.4% 34.3% -4% 32% 34% 34.0% 32.8% -2% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-uncont 1 154615 (65.8%) 80227 (34.2%)   (0.0%) 234842 #REF! #REF! 35.8% R
  Florida 5 Virginia Brown-Waite 2002 64% 48% D R 54% 48% 48% Competitive 49% Competitive 50.6%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 58% 52% 58% 1% 1 50.0% 50.6% 55.1% 59.2% 44.5% 0% 50.0% 5% 51% 49% 50.6% 11% 55% 51% 54.6% -6% 52% 54% 54% 7% 55% 50% 55.1% 55.1% 11% 59% 52% 59.2% 44.5% -6% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 147231 (54.1%) 124982 (45.9%)   (0.0%) 272213 #REF! #REF! 47.5% C
  Florida 6 Cliff Stearns 1988 100% 65% R R 41% 43% 43% R 60% Landslide 39.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 3% 35% 35% 10% 3 48.9% 40.5% 40.5% 39.9% 40.4% 2% 48.9% -9% 38% 40% 40.5% -41% 16% 30% 29.9% 32% 35% 24% 35% -9% 36% 40% 40.5% 40.5% -9% 36% 40% 39.9% 40.4% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 142489 (58.2%) 102179 (41.8%)   (0.0%) 244668 #REF! #REF! 43.4% R
UU Florida 7 John Mica 1992 63% 60% R R 50% 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 35% 40% 40% 5% 3 50.0% 45.3% 45.3% 44.8% 44.7% 0% 50.0% -7% 43% 45% 45.3% -13% 39% 43% 43.4% 6% 40% 38% 40% -7% 41% 45% 45.3% 45.3% -7% 41% 45% 44.8% 44.7% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 143672 (53.9%) 122818 (46.1%)   (0.0%) 266490 #REF! #REF! 47.7% C
  Florida 8 Ric Keller 2000 51% 65% R R 50% 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 47% 35% 47% 5% 2 50.0% 43.6% 44.9% 47.4% 44.9% 0% 50.0% -13% 39% 44% 43.6% -1% 47% 47% 47.5% -12% 35% 39% 39% -9% 40% 45% 44.9% 44.9% -1% 48% 47% 47.4% 44.9% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 119139 (53.7%) 102538 (46.3%)   (0.0%) 221677 #REF! #REF! 47.9% C
U Florida 9 Michael Bilirakis 1982 82% 71% R R 48% 47% 47% R 60% Landslide 39.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 18% 29% 29% 10% 3 50.0% 41.2% 41.2% 39.9% 44.4% 0% 50.0% -19% 35% 41% 41.2% -29% 28% 38% 37.7% 11% 29% 25% 29% -19% 30% 41% 41.2% 41.2% -19% 30% 40% 39.9% 44.4% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 146735 (54.2%) 124242 (45.8%)   (0.0%) 270977 #REF! #REF! 47.4% C
2 Florida 10 C.W. (Bill) Young 1970 76% 100% R R 56% 52% 52% Competitive 51% Competitive 49.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 17.0 20% 0% 20% 1% 4 50.0% 35.1% 41.8% 39.6% 49.4% 0% 50.0% -52% 17% 35% 35.1% -32% 31% 42% 41.8% -20% 0% 7% 7% -46% 8% 37% 37.3% 41.8% -32% 21% 40% 39.6% 1 49.4% -4% 0% R-Competitive 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 133004 (49.2%) 137286 (50.8%)   (0.0%) 270290 #REF! #REF! 52.4% C
2  U Florida 11 Jim Davis 1996 85% 100% D D 56% 63% 63% D 66% Landslide 65.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 91% 100% 91% 16% 4 57.1% 74.9% 71.9% 73.9% 65.6% 14% 57.1% 37% 75% 88% 74.9% 28% 72% 82% 71.9% 9% 97% 100% 97% 34% 74% 96% 73.9% 71.9% 28% 74% 90% 73.9% 1 65.6% 6% 0% D-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 77367 (39.0%) 120926 (61.0%)   (0.0%) 198293 #REF! #REF! 62.6% D
  Florida 12 Adam Putnam 2000 57% 100% R R 45% 47% 47% R 54% Tight 46.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 2.0 45% 0% 45% 4% 2 50.0% 31.3% 46.1% 45.9% 43.8% 0% 50.0% -47% 15% 31% 31.3% -2% 45% 46% 46.1% -45% 0% 15% 15% -32% 16% 36% 36.2% 46.1% -2% 46% 46% 45.9% 43.8% 2% 0% R-Tight 2 2-over3 2-over 2-uncont 1 121083 (54.8%) 99826 (45.2%)   (0.0%) 220909 #REF! #REF! 46.8% R
  Florida 13 Katherine Harris 2002 64% 55% R R 48% 47% 47% R 53% Tight 46.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 36% 45% 45% 3% 1 50.0% 46.5% 46.5% 46.4% 44.1% 0% 50.0% -2% 46% 47% 46.5% -12% 39% 43% 43.3% 10% 45% 42% 45% -2% 46% 47% 46.5% 46.5% -2% 46% 46% 46.4% 44.1% -1% 0% R-Tight 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 152725 (54.5%) 127751 (45.5%)   (0.0%) 280476 #REF! #REF! 47.1% C
O Florida 14 Open (Porter Goss) 1988 1 85% 100% R R 41% 40% 40% R 54% Tight 45.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Change 0% 50% 8.0 15% 0% 15% 4% 0 45.7% 27.0% 31.8% 30.0% 37.2% 9% 45.7% -40% 13% 27% 27.0% -26% 23% 32% 31.8% -15% 0% 5% 5% -35% 6% 29% 28.6% 31.8% -26% 16% 30% 30.0% 37.2% 0% 0% R-Tight 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 163750 (61.4%) 103118 (38.6%)   (0.0%) 266868 #REF! #REF! 40.2% R
  Florida 15 Dave Weldon 1994 59% 63% R R 47% 48% 48% R 54% Tight 45.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 5.0 42% 37% 42% 4% 3 50.0% 44.2% 44.8% 45.6% 44.9% 0% 50.0% -11% 40% 44% 44.2% -6% 44% 46% 46.0% -5% 37% 39% 39% -9% 40% 45% 44.8% 44.8% -6% 43% 46% 45.6% 44.9% 1% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141242 (53.7%) 121611 (46.3%)   (0.0%) 262853 #REF! #REF! 47.9% C
  Florida 16 Mark Foley 1994 60% 79% R R 53% 49% 49% R 57% Comfortable 43.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 35% 21% 35% 7% 3 50.0% 39.5% 41.0% 43.2% 45.5% 0% 50.0% -27% 30% 39% 39.5% -13% 40% 44% 44.1% -14% 21% 26% 26% -23% 27% 41% 41.0% 41.0% -13% 36% 43% 43.2% 45.5% -5% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141029 (53.1%) 124752 (46.9%)   (0.0%) 265781 #REF! #REF! 48.5% C
U Florida 17 Kendrick Meek 2002 100% 100% D D 87% 86% 86% D 91% Landslide 90.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 100% 100% 100% 41% 1 80.9% 90.9% 90.8% 91.7% 89.4% 62% 80.9% 14% 91% 95% 90.9% 13% 91% 95% 90.8% 0% ### 100% 100% 13% 91% 99% 90.8% 90.8% 13% 92% 99% 91.7% 89.4% 0% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-uncont 1 26081 (15.2%) 145341 (84.8%)   (0.0%) 171422 #REF! #REF! 86.4% D
  Florida 18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 1989 100% 69% R R 40% 45% 45% R 61% Landslide 39.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.5 5% 31% 31% 11% 3 50.0% 40.2% 40.2% 39.3% 41.8% 0% 50.0% -14% 35% 40% 40.2% -40% 18% 32% 31.7% 26% 31% 22% 31% -14% 32% 40% 40.2% 40.2% -14% 32% 39% 39.3% 41.8% 5% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 109596 (56.8%) 83524 (43.2%)   (0.0%) 193120 #REF! #REF! 44.8% R
UU Florida 19 Robert Wexler 1996 72% 72% D D 71% 74% 74% D 71% Landslide 71.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 75% 72% 72% 21% 3 68.9% 72.9% 71.2% 71.2% 77.4% 38% 68.9% -2% 74% 73% 72.9% 1% 75% 75% 74.6% -3% 73% 72% 72% -2% 74% 71% 71.2% 71.2% -2% 73% 71% 71.2% 77.4% 3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 71544 (27.2%) 191382 (72.8%)   (0.0%) 262926 #REF! #REF! 74.4% D
O Florida 20 Open (Peter Deutsch) 1992 1 100% 100% D D 65% 71% 71% D 65% Landslide 65.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 6.0 100% 100% 100% 15% 0 65.1% 80.3% 80.2% 82.3% 73.6% 30% 65.1% 29% 80% 90% 80.3% 29% 80% 90% 80.2% 0% ### 100% 100% 29% 80% 99% 80.3% 80.2% 29% 82% 99% 82.3% 73.6% 0% 0% D-Landslide 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 72553 (31.0%) 161154 (69.0%)   (0.0%) 233707 #REF! #REF! 70.6% D
2  U Florida 21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 1992 100% 100% R R 39% 44% 44% R 59% Comfortable 40.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 5% 0% 5% 9% 4 49.2% 29.3% 31.0% 28.3% 40.7% 2% 49.2% -44% 14% 29% 29.3% -38% 18% 31% 31.0% -5% 0% 2% 2% -42% 3% 30% 29.9% 31.0% -38% 6% 28% 28.3% 1 40.7% 5% 0% R-Comfortable 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 104888 (57.9%) 76322 (42.1%)   (0.0%) 181210 #REF! #REF! 43.7% R
  Florida 22 Clay Shaw 1980 50% 61% R R 62% 54% 54% Competitive 51% Competitive 49.3%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 12.0 42% 39% 42% 1% 3 50.0% 49.1% 49.5% 49.3% 51.0% 0% 50.0% -15% 44% 49% 49.1% -12% 46% 50% 50.1% -3% 39% 40% 40% -14% 41% 49% 49.5% 49.5% -12% 43% 49% 49.3% 51.0% -8% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 123302 (47.6%) 135868 (52.4%)   (0.0%) 259170 #REF! #REF! 54.0% D
UU Florida 23 Alcee Hastings 1992 76% 77% D D 82% 81% 81% D 75% Landslide 74.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 76% 77% 76% 25% 3 75.9% 78.8% 75.9% 74.8% 84.4% 52% 75.9% -4% 80% 79% 78.8% -6% 80% 78% 77.7% 2% 77% 77% 77% -4% 80% 76% 75.9% 75.9% -6% 79% 75% 74.8% 84.4% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 33034 (20.2%) 130518 (79.8%)   (0.0%) 163552 #REF! #REF! 81.4% D
UU Florida 24 Tom Feeney 2002   62%   R New 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.9%