Instructions for making Monopoly Politics 2004 projections Type of district Projections If a district became more partisan for the incumbent, we adjust the past winning percentage up.
1.  By modifying variables in cells shaded blue, you can make projections for the 2004 US House races. This column only affects TX, since that's the only state with 2004 p-ship changes.
2.   Summaries of the number and categories of the projections appear in cells N7 to T15.
3.  After the 2004 election, you can enter the winning party and percent in columns V and W.
4.  The spreadsheet tabulates the accuracy of projections in cells V8 to AA15.
5.  For more information, visit our report online at: http://www.fairvote.org/2004 Number of seats affected by parameters     Model:  twice uncontested run 3% ahead of p-ship
6. We've posted a User's Guide, all data used and a detailed description of our projection algorithm.         Labels Wrong Loser Rep:  pship-3%
      Total Projections     Projections by Party     Accuracy of Projections (after entering results) Cohort 0 1 2 3 Right Change Dem:  pship+3%
Var Description           # Incumbent Terms Category Applies To Diff Margin     Projection Num Projection Dem Rep Total Wrong   Result       Number 35 63 38 285 Trend = lastperf-priorperf
60% % decrease for "overrachieving" incumbent 3 and up 3% Competitive     Landslide 211 Landslide 109 102 211 Party Range Landslide Comfortable Tight Lost Over -- 37 25 229 Diff = lastperf - pship >0 means 2nd perf weaker for R, 2nd perf stronger for D Adjustment to past performance This section computes the number of seats for which affected by each parameter
1% Absolute reduction for "underachieving" incumbent 2 and up 5% Tight       Comfortable 107 Comfortable 37 69 106 211 211 0 0 0 211 Under -- 26 6 56 diff>0:  underachiever for R, over for D <0 vice versa (2nd stronger for R, weaker for D) based on achievement, terms served, contested races and better 2nd elections.
33% % adjustment to better 2nd election 2 10% Comfortable     Tight 33 Tight 9 24 33 107 107 0 0 0 107 Uncont -- -- 7 -- 2000 House performances scaled to Model selection diff<0:  over for R, under for D Diff = adjusted weakest perf - pship Code Num
35% % decrease if previous race uncontested 2 >10% Landslide     Total Projections 351 Projections 155 195 350 33 33 0 0 0 33 Better 2nd -- -- 26 -- 2000 to 2002 change in p-ship 0 35 Upper label 3-over3 1-over 2-uncont   2-better2 2-over
67% % decrease for "overachieving" new incumbent 1, 2     Competitive 71 Competitive 37 34 71     71 0 0   in Col AR     Category Code Projections by 5 different models   Calculation of projection for each model                                               End of projections calculations 1 63 Lower label 3-under23 1-under   2-under23
33% % increase for "underachieving" first-termer 1 50% National Dem     Vulnerable 13 Vulnerable 13 0 13     13 0 0     Open 0 2 38 Upper label 229 37 7   26 25
11% Buffer of absolute increase/decrease of 5.5% for open seats     Open 2-party share   Total Seats 435 Total Seats 205 229 434             Used to compute accuracy of projections             Used for 2004 projections Fresh 1 3 285 Lower label 56 26       6
ENTER 2004 results   Computed from results   Computed from results Computed from results   Computed from results   2-term 2 Open   Fresh       2-term       If contested, adjust perf by pship         Long-term     Twice-uncontested
2004     Winning % Winning   Diff in TX only   Range of Vuln Non-open Open-seat Results of projected categories   Min Diff Diff   2004 Performance   Long-term 3     Projection models                 If unc, treat prior race like freshman                     District Partisanship Data
    2004 2002-2004 1st Open 2000 2002 2000 2002 2000 2002 2004 Projection (cautious)   Low Projected Democratic 2004 Outcome      Accuracy     Wrong projs who losing party Landsl. Comf. Comp.     of proj. of   Terms 0 to 100 scale Worst 2-uncont 4 Open Fresh 2-term Long-term Twice-uncont     Perf-           Unc   If 2nd strong, adj. weakest.   Contested         Code P-ship 2000 2002 Used for summaries    3s Fresh 2s   2s 2s     2000 Presidential Election       2000 Black Hispanic   2002 2004 District P-ship
Codes State CD Incumbent Elected Seat % % Party Party P-ship P-ship Pship Party Result Performance Projection Party % Result Party %     Party % lost incs change proj. proj. proj Vuln. No proj range result   Served 2000 2002 Perf   Diff Error 0 1 2 3 4 Margin Proj pship >0 <0 Proj Diff >0 <0 Proj   Trend >0 <0 Perf Diff >0 <0 Proj Proj Diff >0 <0 Proj 2 +3% adj adj of projections Code     Uncont Uncont better2 Over/under Bush Vote (%) Gore Vote (%) Other Vote (%) Total Vote Voters Voters   Party Pship P-ship Party
  Alabama 1 Jo Bonner 2002 91% 60% R R 40% 39% 39% R 61% Landslide 39.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 8% 40% 40% 11% 1 44.6% 39.4% 40.5% 40.5% 36.1% 11% 44.6% 0% 39% 39% 39.4% -31% 18% 29% 28.7% 32% 40% 29% 40% 0% 41% 39% 40.5% 40.5% 0% 41% 39% 40.5% 36.1% -1% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 138938 (60.4%) 86142 (37.5%) 4798 (2.1%) 229878 #REF! #REF!   R 40% 39.1% R
  Alabama 2 Terry Everett 1992 68% 69% R R 38% 39% 39% R 63% Landslide 36.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 33% 31% 33% 13% 3 44.7% 36.6% 36.8% 36.8% 36.2% 11% 44.7% -8% 34% 37% 36.6% -6% 35% 37% 37.2% -2% 31% 32% 32% -7% 33% 37% 36.8% 36.8% -6% 34% 37% 36.8% 36.2% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 137168 (61.1%) 84435 (37.6%) 3061 (1.4%) 224664 #REF! #REF! R 40% 39.2% R
  Alabama 3 Mike Rogers 2002 87% 50% R R 44% 48% 48% Competitive 51% Competitive 49.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 18% 50% 50% 1% 1 50.0% 49.2% 50.7% 50.7% 45.2% 0% 50.0% 1% 49% 49% 49.2% -31% 28% 38% 38.1% 32% 50% 39% 50% 1% 51% 49% 50.7% 50.7% 1% 51% 49% 50.7% 45.2% 5% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 112320 (51.6%) 101431 (46.6%) 3769 (1.7%) 217520 #REF! #REF! R 49% 48.2% C
  Alabama 4 Robert Aderholt 1996 61% 87% R R 42% 39% 39% R 62% Landslide 38.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 37% 13% 37% 12% 3 44.5% 30.5% 38.3% 38.2% 36.0% 11% 44.5% -26% 22% 31% 30.5% -2% 38% 38% 38.3% -24% 13% 21% 21% -18% 22% 33% 33.1% 38.3% -2% 38% 38% 38.2% 36.0% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 141285 (60.7%) 87062 (37.4%) 4240 (1.8%) 232587 #REF! #REF! R 39% 39.0% R
  Alabama 5 Bud Cramer 1990 89% 73% D D 45% 45% 45% D 57% Comfortable 56.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 7.0 89% 73% 73% 7% 3 50.0% 54.6% 54.6% 56.6% 48.4% 0% 50.0% 28% 55% 64% 54.6% 44% 60% 75% 59.8% -16% 78% 73% 73% 28% 55% 72% 54.6% 54.6% 28% 57% 72% 56.6% 48.4% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 131608 (54.0%) 106685 (43.8%) 5241 (2.2%) 243534 #REF! #REF! D 46% 45.4% R
2 UU Alabama 6 Spencer Bachus 1992 88% 90% R R 31% 27% 27% R 76% Landslide 23.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 8% 10% 10% 26% 4 32.0% 21.1% 20.3% 20.0% 23.5% 36% 32.0% -16% 16% 21% 21.1% -19% 14% 20% 20.3% 3% 10% 9% 10% -16% 11% 21% 21.1% 20.3% -16% 11% 20% 20.0% 1 23.5% -4% 0% R-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 200818 (73.6%) 67975 (24.9%) 3997 (1.5%) 272790 #REF! #REF! R 27% 26.5% R
  Alabama 7 Artur Davis 2002 75% 92% D D 75% 68% 68% D 76% Landslide 76.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 68% 92% 68% 26% 1 62.4% 76.0% 67.7% 66.5% 70.9% 25% 62.4% 25% 76% 84% 76.0% 0% 68% 68% 67.7% 25% 84% 92% 84% 16% 73% 83% 73.3% 67.7% 0% 68% 67% 66.5% 70.9% -7% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-uncont 1 78670 (32.9%) 158580 (66.3%) 1827 (0.8%) 239077 #REF! #REF!   D 67% 67.9% D
  Alaska 1 Don Young 1973 70% 75% R R 29% 29% 29% R 69% Landslide 31.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 15.5 30% 25% 30% 19% 3 34.8% 28.0% 28.5% 31.4% 26.3% 30% 34.8% -4% 27% 28% 28.0% 1% 30% 30% 30.0% -5% 25% 27% 27% -2% 28% 29% 28.5% 28.5% 1% 31% 30% 31.4% 26.3% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 167398 (58.6%) 79004 (27.7%) 39158 (13.7%) 285560 29.3% R
  Arizona 1 Rick Renzi 2002 54% 49% R R 44% 47% 47% Competitive 50% Competitive 49.6%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 49% 51% 51% 0% 1 50.0% 49.6% 51.8% 51.8% 44.1% 0% 50.0% 4% 50% 48% 49.6% 2% 49% 48% 48.6% 1% 51% 50% 51% 4% 52% 48% 51.8% 51.8% 4% 52% 49% 51.8% 44.1% 3% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 102068 (50.5%) 91920 (45.5%) 7931 (3.9%) 201919 #REF! #REF! R 47% 47.1% C
  Arizona 2 Trent Franks 2002 66% 60% R R 42% 42% 42% R 58% Comfortable 41.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 35% 40% 40% 8% 1 47.9% 41.6% 41.6% 41.5% 39.4% 4% 47.9% -2% 41% 42% 41.6% -7% 38% 40% 40.0% 5% 40% 38% 40% -2% 41% 42% 41.6% 41.6% -2% 41% 41% 41.5% 39.4% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 119386 (56.5%) 86251 (40.8%) 5760 (2.7%) 211397 #REF! #REF! R 42% 42.4% R
U Arizona 3 John Shadegg 1994 64% 67% R R 45% 44% 44% R 60% Comfortable 40.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 35% 33% 35% 10% 3 49.7% 40.4% 40.6% 40.4% 41.2% 1% 49.7% -12% 36% 40% 40.4% -9% 38% 41% 41.1% -2% 33% 33% 33% -11% 34% 41% 40.6% 40.6% -9% 36% 40% 40.4% 41.2% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 114259 (54.5%) 89308 (42.6%) 6140 (2.9%) 209707 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.2% R
  Arizona 4 Ed Pastor 1991 69% 67% D D 62% 64% 64% D 65% Landslide 65.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.5 71% 67% 67% 15% 3 58.7% 65.3% 65.3% 65.5% 67.2% 17% 58.7% 3% 65% 66% 65.3% 7% 66% 69% 66.4% -3% 68% 67% 67% 3% 65% 66% 65.3% 65.3% 3% 65% 66% 65.5% 67.2% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 31542 (34.5%) 57198 (62.6%) 2598 (2.8%) 91338 #REF! #REF! D 63% 64.2% D
  Arizona 5 J.D. Hayworth 1994 61% 61% R R 44% 45% 45% R 58% Comfortable 42.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 39% 39% 39% 8% 3 50.0% 42.7% 42.8% 42.4% 41.7% 0% 50.0% -6% 41% 43% 42.7% -6% 41% 43% 42.8% 0% 39% 39% 39% -6% 40% 43% 42.8% 42.8% -6% 40% 42% 42.4% 41.7% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 121462 (53.6%) 97604 (43.1%) 7635 (3.4%) 226701 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.7% R
U Arizona 6 Jeff Flake 2000 54% 66% R R 46% 39% 39% R 62% Landslide 37.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 39% 34% 39% 12% 2 44.2% 37.2% 37.7% 40.4% 35.7% 12% 44.2% -5% 36% 37% 37.2% 1% 39% 39% 39.2% -5% 34% 36% 36% -3% 37% 38% 37.7% 37.7% 1% 40% 39% 40.4% 35.7% -7% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 118278 (60.9%) 72093 (37.1%) 3942 (2.0%) 194313 #REF! #REF! R 38% 38.7% R
  Arizona 7 Raul Grijalva 2002   59%   D New 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 59.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 #REF! 59% #REF! 9% 1 53.7% 59.1% #REF! #REF! 62.2% 7% 53.7% 0% 59% 59% 59.1% #### ### #### #REF! #REF! ### 59% #### #REF! #### #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! ### ### #REF! 62.2% ###### 0% D-Comfortable 1 #REF! 1-under #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 49343 (38.3%) 74176 (57.6%) 5271 (4.1%) 128790 #REF! #REF! D 58% 59.2% D
  Arizona 8 Jim Kolbe 1984 60% 63% R R 49% 48% 48% R 56% Comfortable 44.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 10.0 39% 37% 39% 6% 3 50.0% 43.9% 44.2% 44.0% 44.5% 0% 50.0% -11% 40% 44% 43.9% -9% 42% 45% 44.6% -2% 37% 37% 37% -10% 38% 44% 44.2% 44.2% -9% 40% 44% 44.0% 44.5% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 123585 (49.7%) 114055 (45.9%) 10814 (4.4%) 248454 #REF! #REF! R 48% 47.5% C
  Arkansas 1 Marion Berry 1996 60% 66% D D 52% 51% 51% D 54% Tight 54.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 4.0 59% 66% 59% 4% 3 50.0% 56.2% 55.4% 54.4% 54.2% 0% 50.0% 15% 56% 61% 56.2% 8% 54% 57% 53.9% 7% 64% 66% 64% 13% 55% 63% 55.4% 55.4% 8% 54% 58% 54.4% 54.2% -1% 0% D-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 105547 (47.9%) 109160 (49.6%) 5482 (2.5%) 220189 #REF! #REF! D 51% 51.2% C
  Arkansas 2 Vic Snyder 1996 58% 93% D D 49% 49% 49% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.7%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 58% 93% 58% 3% 3 50.0% 63.8% 52.1% 52.7% 52.4% 0% 50.0% 43% 64% 79% 63.8% 8% 52% 55% 52.1% 35% 81% 93% 81% 32% 60% 80% 59.9% 52.1% 8% 53% 57% 52.7% 52.4% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 116075 (49.3%) 112720 (47.8%) 6817 (2.9%) 235612 #REF! #REF! D 49% 49.4% C
  Arkansas 3 John Boozman 2001 56% 99% R R 39% 39% 39% R 74% Landslide 26.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 44% 1% 44% 24% 1 44.3% 26.3% 42.2% 44.9% 35.8% 11% 44.3% -38% 14% 26% 26.3% 5% 42% 40% 42.2% -43% 1% 15% 15% -24% 16% 31% 31.0% 42.2% 5% 45% 41% 44.9% 35.8% 0% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-uncont 1 138977 (59.5%) 86739 (37.2%) 7691 (3.3%) 233407 #REF! #REF! R 39% 38.8% R
UU Arkansas 4 Mike Ross 2000 51% 61% D D 52% 51% 51% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 50% 61% 50% 3% 2 50.0% 53.9% 52.8% 48.8% 53.7% 0% 50.0% 10% 54% 57% 53.9% -1% 50% 50% 50.1% 11% 57% 61% 57% 6% 53% 56% 52.8% 52.8% -1% 50% 49% 48.8% 53.7% -1% 0% D-Competitive 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 112341 (48.3%) 114149 (49.1%) 6083 (2.6%) 232573 #REF! #REF! D 51% 50.7% C
  California 1 Mike Thompson 1998 65% 64% D D 52% 53% 53% D 58% Comfortable 57.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 66% 64% 64% 8% 3 50.0% 56.9% 56.9% 57.6% 56.3% 0% 50.0% 11% 57% 61% 56.9% 13% 58% 62% 57.5% -2% 65% 64% 64% 11% 57% 63% 56.9% 56.9% 11% 58% 63% 57.6% 56.3% 1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 98506 (38.8%) 131376 (51.7%) 24220 (9.5%) 254102 #REF! #REF! D 54% 53.3% D
  California 2 Wally Herger 1986 66% 66% R R 36% 35% 35% R 65% Landslide 34.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 33% 34% 34% 15% 3 40.4% 34.6% 34.6% 34.6% 31.9% 19% 40.4% -1% 34% 35% 34.6% -2% 34% 34% 34.2% 1% 34% 34% 34% -1% 35% 35% 34.6% 34.6% -1% 35% 35% 34.6% 31.9% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 150196 (61.1%) 81861 (33.3%) 13609 (5.5%) 245666 #REF! #REF! R 35% 34.9% R
O California 3 Open (Doug Ose) 1998 1 56% 62% R R 46% 43% 43% Competitive 52% Competitive 48.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 44% 38% 44% 2% 0 48.4% 41.2% 41.9% 44.8% 39.9% 3% 48.4% -5% 39% 41% 41.2% 1% 44% 43% 43.5% -6% 38% 40% 40% -3% 41% 42% 41.9% 41.9% 1% 45% 43% 44.8% 39.9% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 142946 (54.9%) 107690 (41.3%) 9820 (3.8%) 260456 #REF! #REF! R 43% 42.9% R
  California 4 John Doolittle 1990 63% 65% R R 39% 37% 37% R 64% Landslide 36.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 35% 35% 35% 14% 3 42.8% 36.6% 36.6% 36.5% 34.3% 14% 42.8% -2% 36% 37% 36.6% -2% 36% 37% 36.5% 0% 35% 35% 35% -2% 36% 37% 36.6% 36.6% -2% 36% 36% 36.5% 34.3% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 172169 (58.9%) 104437 (35.7%) 15633 (5.3%) 292239 #REF! #REF! R 38% 37.3% R
  California 5 Robert Matsui 1978 69% 71% D D 59% 62% 62% D 65% Landslide 65.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 71% 71% 71% 15% 3 56.3% 64.8% 64.8% 65.5% 64.8% 13% 56.3% 9% 65% 68% 64.8% 9% 65% 68% 64.9% 0% 71% 71% 71% 9% 65% 70% 64.8% 64.8% 9% 65% 70% 65.5% 64.8% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 66011 (34.9%) 113987 (60.2%) 9239 (4.9%) 189237 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.8% D
  California 6 Lynn Woolsey 1992 64% 66% D D 64% 64% 64% D 64% Landslide 63.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 64% 66% 64% 14% 3 58.3% 64.7% 64.4% 63.9% 66.8% 17% 58.3% 3% 65% 66% 64.7% 0% 64% 64% 63.9% 2% 66% 66% 66% 2% 64% 65% 64.4% 64.4% 0% 64% 63% 63.9% 66.8% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 87082 (30.3%) 178746 (62.2%) 21514 (7.5%) 287342 #REF! #REF! D 64% 63.8% D
  California 7 George Miller 1974 76% 71% D D 71% 68% 68% D 69% Landslide 68.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 15.0 73% 71% 71% 19% 3 62.3% 68.7% 68.7% 68.9% 70.8% 25% 62.3% 3% 69% 70% 68.7% 6% 70% 71% 69.6% -3% 72% 71% 71% 3% 69% 70% 68.7% 68.7% 3% 69% 70% 68.9% 70.8% -3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 64477 (30.6%) 139421 (66.2%) 6824 (3.2%) 210722 #REF! #REF! D 68% 67.8% D
  California 8 Nancy Pelosi 1987 84% 80% D D 79% 79% 79% D 79% Landslide 79.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.5 84% 80% 80% 29% 3 73.2% 79.0% 79.0% 79.0% 81.7% 46% 73.2% 1% 79% 79% 79.0% 6% 81% 82% 80.5% -5% 81% 80% 80% 1% 79% 79% 79.0% 79.0% 1% 79% 79% 79.0% 81.7% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 37737 (14.8%) 196878 (77.1%) 20869 (8.2%) 255484 #REF! #REF! D 79% 78.7% D
  California 9 Barbara Lee 1998 85% 81% D D 81% 80% 80% D 81% Landslide 80.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 84% 81% 81% 31% 3 74.6% 80.5% 80.5% 80.6% 83.1% 49% 74.6% 1% 81% 81% 80.5% 4% 81% 83% 81.5% -3% 82% 81% 81% 1% 81% 80% 80.5% 80.5% 1% 81% 80% 80.6% 83.1% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 31464 (13.4%) 184030 (78.5%) 18868 (8.1%) 234362 #REF! #REF! D 80% 80.1% D
  California 10 Ellen Tauscher 1996 53% 76% D D 53% 57% 57% D 55% Comfortable 55.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 56% 76% 56% 5% 3 51.3% 63.0% 60.9% 55.0% 59.8% 3% 51.3% 19% 63% 69% 63.0% -1% 57% 56% 56.3% 20% 69% 76% 69% 12% 61% 68% 60.9% 60.9% -1% 56% 55% 55.0% 59.8% 3% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 109149 (41.3%) 145996 (55.2%) 9273 (3.5%) 264418 #REF! #REF! D 57% 56.8% D
UU California 11 Richard Pombo 1992 58% 60% R R 49% 46% 46% R 56% Comfortable 43.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 40% 40% 40% 6% 3 50.0% 44.1% 44.1% 43.7% 43.3% 0% 50.0% -7% 42% 44% 44.1% -7% 42% 44% 44.1% 0% 40% 40% 40% -7% 41% 44% 44.1% 44.1% -7% 41% 44% 43.7% 43.3% -3% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 125876 (52.9%) 106354 (44.7%) 5882 (2.5%) 238112 #REF! #REF! R 46% 46.3% R
  California 12 Tom Lantos 1980 75% 68% D D 69% 68% 68% D 67% Landslide 67.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.0 74% 68% 68% 17% 3 62.9% 68.2% 67.1% 67.1% 71.4% 26% 62.9% 0% 68% 68% 68.2% 5% 70% 72% 70.1% -5% 70% 68% 68% 0% 68% 67% 67.1% 67.1% 0% 68% 67% 67.1% 71.4% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 70468 (28.6%) 164490 (66.8%) 11103 (4.5%) 246061 #REF! #REF! D 68% 68.4% D
  California 13 Pete Stark 1972 70% 71% D D 69% 69% 69% D 69% Landslide 69.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 16.0 70% 71% 70% 19% 3 63.1% 69.4% 69.3% 69.3% 71.6% 26% 63.1% 2% 69% 70% 69.4% 2% 69% 70% 69.2% 1% 71% 71% 71% 2% 69% 70% 69.3% 69.3% 2% 69% 69% 69.3% 71.6% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 55803 (29.6%) 126477 (67.0%) 6472 (3.4%) 188752 #REF! #REF! D 69% 68.6% D
  California 14 Anna Eshoo 1992 70% 68% D D 65% 63% 63% D 65% Landslide 65.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 69% 68% 68% 15% 3 57.6% 64.8% 64.8% 65.1% 66.1% 15% 57.6% 5% 65% 67% 64.8% 6% 65% 67% 65.0% -1% 68% 68% 68% 5% 65% 67% 64.8% 64.8% 5% 65% 67% 65.1% 66.1% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 84637 (33.6%) 155165 (61.5%) 12451 (4.9%) 252253 #REF! #REF! D 63% 63.1% D
  California 15 Michael Honda 2000 54% 66% D D 59% 62% 62% D 62% Landslide 62.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 57% 66% 57% 12% 2 56.4% 63.2% 62.3% 56.1% 64.9% 13% 56.4% 4% 63% 64% 63.2% -5% 60% 59% 58.7% 9% 63% 66% 63% 1% 62% 62% 62.3% 62.3% -5% 60% 56% 56.1% 64.9% 3% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 74974 (36.2%) 124880 (60.3%) 7108 (3.4%) 206962 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.9% D
  California 16 Zoe Lofgren 1994 72% 67% D D 67% 65% 65% D 66% Landslide 66.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 71% 67% 67% 16% 3 60.0% 66.0% 66.0% 66.1% 68.5% 20% 60.0% 2% 66% 67% 66.0% 5% 67% 69% 67.2% -4% 68% 67% 67% 2% 66% 66% 66.0% 66.0% 2% 66% 66% 66.1% 68.5% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 57160 (33.3%) 109632 (63.9%) 4832 (2.8%) 171624 #REF! #REF! D 66% 65.5% D
  California 17 Sam Farr 1993 69% 68% D D 62% 61% 61% D 64% Landslide 64.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.5 68% 68% 68% 14% 3 56.0% 63.7% 63.7% 64.1% 64.5% 12% 56.0% 7% 64% 66% 63.7% 7% 64% 66% 63.7% 0% 68% 68% 68% 7% 64% 67% 63.7% 63.7% 7% 64% 67% 64.1% 64.5% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 68717 (33.0%) 124580 (59.9%) 14819 (7.1%) 208116 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.5% D
  California 18 Dennis Cardoza 2002 67% 51% D D 46% 55% 55% Competitive 52% Competitive 52.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 76% 51% 51% 2% 1 50.0% 52.4% 50.3% 50.3% 57.7% 0% 50.0% -3% 54% 52% 52.4% 21% 62% 69% 61.6% -24% 59% 51% 51% -3% 54% 50% 50.3% 50.3% -3% 53% 50% 50.3% 57.7% 9% 0% D-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 65105 (44.4%) 77908 (53.1%) 3690 (2.5%) 146703 #REF! #REF! D 55% 54.7% D
  California 19 George Radanovich 1994 65% 67% R R 40% 41% 41% R 61% Landslide 38.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 35% 33% 35% 11% 3 46.1% 38.0% 38.3% 38.5% 37.6% 8% 46.1% -8% 35% 38% 38.0% -5% 37% 39% 38.9% -3% 33% 34% 34% -7% 35% 38% 38.3% 38.3% -5% 36% 39% 38.5% 37.6% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 125465 (57.9%) 84559 (39.0%) 6823 (3.1%) 216847 #REF! #REF! R 41% 40.6% R
O California 20 Open (Cal Dooley) 1990 1 52% 63% D D 52% 56% 56% Competitive 51% Competitive 50.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 7.0 52% 63% 52% 1% 0 50.8% 58.7% 57.4% 51.3% 59.3% 2% 50.8% 7% 59% 61% 58.7% -4% 55% 54% 53.6% 11% 60% 63% 60% 4% 57% 59% 57.4% 57.4% -4% 55% 51% 51.3% 59.3% 0% 0% D-Competitive 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 46058 (43.6%) 57790 (54.7%) 1844 (1.7%) 105692 #REF! #REF! D 57% 56.3% D
  California 21 Devin Nunes 2002   70%   R New 38% 38% R 65% Landslide 35.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 ###### 30% ##### 15% 1 43.8% 35.4% ##### #VALUE! 35.3% 12% 43.8% -9% 32% 35% 35.4% #### ### #### ###### ##### 30% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 35.3% ###### 0% R-Landslide 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 107645 (60.5%) 65268 (36.7%) 5120 (2.9%) 178033 #REF! #REF! R 39% 38.3% R
UU California 22 Bill Thomas 1978 72% 73% R R 36% 35% 35% R 68% Landslide 32.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 28% 27% 28% 18% 3 40.5% 32.3% 32.4% 32.0% 32.0% 19% 40.5% -8% 29% 32% 32.3% -7% 30% 33% 32.6% -1% 27% 27% 27% -8% 28% 32% 32.4% 32.4% -7% 29% 32% 32.0% 32.0% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141156 (64.3%) 73338 (33.4%) 5043 (2.3%) 219537 #REF! #REF! R 35% 35.0% R
  California 23 Lois Capps 1998 53% 59% D D 47% 55% 55% D 57% Comfortable 56.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 62% 59% 59% 7% 3 50.0% 56.4% 56.4% 56.6% 58.1% 0% 50.0% 4% 56% 58% 56.4% 7% 57% 59% 57.3% -3% 60% 59% 59% 4% 56% 58% 56.4% 56.4% 4% 57% 58% 56.6% 58.1% 8% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 90550 (40.4%) 119795 (53.5%) 13574 (6.1%) 223919 #REF! #REF! D 55% 55.1% D
  California 24 Elton Gallegly 1986 54% 65% R R 50% 44% 44% R 57% Comfortable 42.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 9.0 40% 35% 40% 7% 3 49.9% 41.3% 41.8% 42.7% 41.4% 0% 49.9% -10% 38% 41% 41.3% -4% 41% 43% 43.0% -5% 35% 37% 37% -8% 38% 42% 41.8% 41.8% -4% 41% 43% 42.7% 41.4% -6% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 140755 (53.6%) 112436 (42.8%) 9220 (3.5%) 262411 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.4% R
  California 25 Buck McKeon 1992 62% 65% R R 47% 43% 43% R 60% Comfortable 40.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 34% 35% 35% 10% 3 49.0% 40.7% 40.7% 40.1% 40.5% 2% 49.0% -8% 38% 41% 40.7% -9% 37% 40% 40.5% 1% 35% 35% 35% -8% 36% 41% 40.7% 40.7% -8% 36% 40% 40.1% 40.5% -3% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 108627 (55.5%) 81893 (41.9%) 5055 (2.6%) 195575 #REF! #REF! R 44% 43.5% R
  California 26 David Dreier 1980 57% 64% R R 51% 45% 45% R 58% Comfortable 42.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 12.0 37% 36% 37% 8% 3 50.0% 42.4% 42.5% 42.2% 42.4% 0% 50.0% -9% 39% 42% 42.4% -8% 40% 43% 42.8% -1% 36% 37% 37% -9% 38% 43% 42.5% 42.5% -8% 38% 42% 42.2% 42.4% -6% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 127468 (53.2%) 105023 (43.8%) 7044 (2.9%) 239535 #REF! #REF! R 45% 45.4% R
  California 27 Brad Sherman 1996 66% 62% D D 60% 62% 62% D 62% Landslide 61.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 68% 62% 62% 12% 3 56.4% 61.9% 61.9% 61.9% 64.9% 13% 56.4% 0% 62% 62% 61.9% 6% 64% 66% 63.8% -6% 64% 62% 62% 0% 62% 61% 61.9% 61.9% 0% 62% 61% 61.9% 64.9% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 70557 (36.3%) 117120 (60.3%) 6568 (3.4%) 194245 #REF! #REF! D 62% 61.9% D
  California 28 Howard Berman 1982 84% 71% D D 73% 74% 74% D 70% Landslide 70.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 86% 71% 71% 20% 3 69.0% 72.4% 70.4% 70.4% 77.5% 38% 69.0% -3% 73% 72% 72.4% 11% 78% 82% 78.2% -14% 76% 71% 71% -3% 73% 70% 70.4% 70.4% -3% 73% 70% 70.4% 77.5% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 36762 (23.9%) 112332 (72.9%) 5021 (3.3%) 154115 #REF! #REF! D 75% 74.5% D
  California 29 Adam Schiff 2000 53% 63% D D 56% 59% 59% D 60% Comfortable 59.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 57% 63% 57% 10% 2 54.0% 60.5% 59.8% 55.6% 62.5% 8% 54.0% 3% 60% 62% 60.5% -3% 59% 58% 57.5% 6% 61% 63% 61% 1% 60% 60% 59.8% 59.8% -3% 58% 56% 55.6% 62.5% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 79210 (38.4%) 119396 (57.9%) 7671 (3.7%) 206277 #REF! #REF! D 60% 59.5% D
  California 30 Henry Waxman 1974 76% 70% D D 74% 70% 70% D 70% Landslide 70.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 15.0 71% 70% 70% 20% 3 64.3% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 72.8% 29% 64.3% 0% 70% 70% 70.0% 1% 70% 71% 70.2% -1% 71% 70% 70% 0% 70% 69% 70.0% 70.0% 0% 70% 69% 70.0% 72.8% -5% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 81336 (27.8%) 199282 (68.2%) 11464 (3.9%) 292082 #REF! #REF! D 70% 69.8% D
  California 31 Xavier Becerra 1992 83% 81% D D 78% 79% 79% D 80% Landslide 79.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 85% 81% 81% 30% 3 73.3% 79.5% 79.5% 79.7% 81.8% 47% 73.3% 2% 80% 80% 79.5% 6% 81% 83% 80.7% -3% 82% 81% 81% 2% 80% 80% 79.5% 79.5% 2% 80% 80% 79.7% 81.8% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 19400 (18.8%) 79560 (77.2%) 4156 (4.0%) 103116 #REF! #REF! D 79% 78.8% D
U California 32 Hilda Solis 2000 75% 69% D D 72% 68% 68% D 68% Landslide 68.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 72% 69% 69% 18% 2 62.8% 68.4% 68.4% 68.5% 71.3% 26% 62.8% 0% 68% 69% 68.4% 3% 69% 70% 69.4% -3% 70% 69% 69% 0% 68% 68% 68.4% 68.4% 0% 68% 68% 68.5% 71.3% -3% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-over 45018 (31.2%) 96217 (66.7%) 3057 (2.1%) 144292 #REF! #REF! D 68% 68.3% D
U California 33 Diane Watson 2001 75% 83% D D 86% 85% 85% D 83% Landslide 83.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 74% 83% 74% 33% 1 79.2% 83.2% 78.7% 72.9% 87.7% 58% 79.2% -2% 84% 83% 83.2% -11% 81% 77% 77.5% 9% 80% 83% 80% -5% 83% 79% 78.7% 78.7% -11% 80% 73% 72.9% 87.7% -1% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 24214 (13.5%) 148978 (83.1%) 6067 (3.4%) 179259 #REF! #REF! D 85% 84.7% D
  California 34 Lucille Roybal-Allard 1992 85% 74% D D 85% 74% 74% D 73% Landslide 72.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 74% 74% 74% 23% 3 68.5% 74.0% 72.9% 72.5% 77.0% 37% 68.5% 0% 74% 74% 74.0% 0% 74% 74% 73.7% 0% 74% 74% 74% 0% 74% 73% 72.9% 72.9% 0% 74% 73% 72.5% 77.0% -11% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 27384 (25.8%) 76876 (72.4%) 1901 (1.8%) 106161 #REF! #REF! D 74% 74.0% D
  California 35 Maxine Waters 1990 87% 77% D D 88% 83% 83% D 76% Landslide 76.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 81% 77% 77% 26% 3 77.7% 79.3% 76.4% 76.4% 86.2% 55% 77.7% -6% 81% 79% 79.3% -2% 83% 82% 81.9% -4% 79% 77% 77% -6% 81% 76% 76.4% 76.4% -6% 81% 76% 76.4% 86.2% -5% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 24495 (16.9%) 118450 (81.6%) 2262 (1.6%) 145207 #REF! #REF! D 83% 83.2% D
  California 36 Jane Harman 2000 48% 61% D D 53% 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 58.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 54% 61% 54% 9% 2 53.2% 59.6% 58.8% 53.3% 61.7% 6% 53.2% 3% 60% 60% 59.6% -4% 57% 56% 55.8% 7% 59% 61% 59% 0% 59% 58% 58.8% 58.8% -4% 57% 53% 53.3% 61.7% 6% 0% D-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 88619 (38.7%) 130752 (57.1%) 9423 (4.1%) 228794 #REF! #REF! D 59% 58.7% D
  California 37 Juanita Mill-McDonald 1996 82% 73% D D 86% 78% 78% D 72% Landslide 71.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 74% 73% 73% 22% 3 72.0% 74.4% 71.9% 71.9% 80.5% 44% 72.0% -5% 76% 74% 74.4% -3% 76% 75% 75.4% -2% 73% 73% 73% -5% 76% 72% 71.9% 71.9% -5% 76% 72% 71.9% 80.5% -8% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 31832 (21.5%) 112235 (75.9%) 3712 (2.5%) 147779 #REF! #REF! D 78% 77.5% D
UU California 38 Grace Napolitano 1998 71% 71% D D 70% 72% 72% D 70% Landslide 70.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 73% 71% 71% 20% 3 66.2% 71.3% 70.1% 70.1% 74.7% 32% 66.2% -1% 72% 71% 71.3% 2% 72% 73% 72.2% -2% 72% 71% 71% -1% 72% 70% 70.1% 70.1% -1% 71% 70% 70.1% 74.7% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 41706 (27.9%) 104612 (70.1%) 2929 (2.0%) 149247 #REF! #REF! D 72% 71.7% D
  California 39 Linda Sanchez 2002 48% 55% D D 60% 64% 64% D 58% Comfortable 57.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 52% 55% 52% 8% 1 58.5% 57.8% 52.9% 51.1% 67.0% 17% 58.5% -9% 61% 58% 57.8% -12% 60% 56% 56.0% 3% 54% 55% 54% -10% 61% 53% 52.9% 52.9% -12% 59% 51% 51.1% 67.0% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 56067 (35.5%) 98478 (62.4%) 3390 (2.1%) 157935 #REF! #REF! D 64% 64.0% D
  California 40 Ed Royce 1992 63% 68% R R 46% 42% 42% R 61% Landslide 39.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 34% 32% 34% 11% 3 47.9% 39.1% 39.3% 39.0% 39.4% 4% 47.9% -10% 36% 39% 39.1% -9% 37% 40% 39.6% -2% 32% 33% 33% -10% 34% 39% 39.3% 39.3% -9% 35% 39% 39.0% 39.4% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 119443 (56.4%) 86460 (40.8%) 5886 (2.8%) 211789 #REF! #REF! R 42% 42.4% R
U California 41 Jerry Lewis 1978 80% 67% R R 42% 43% 43% R 61% Landslide 38.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 21% 33% 33% 11% 3 48.2% 39.4% 39.4% 38.7% 39.7% 4% 48.2% -10% 36% 39% 39.4% -22% 28% 36% 35.6% 12% 33% 29% 33% -10% 34% 39% 39.4% 39.4% -10% 34% 39% 38.7% 39.7% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 114498 (56.3%) 83584 (41.1%) 5116 (2.5%) 203198 #REF! #REF! R 43% 42.7% R
  California 42 Gary Miller 1998 59% 68% R R 49% 40% 40% R 63% Landslide 37.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 33% 32% 33% 13% 3 46.0% 37.8% 37.9% 37.4% 37.5% 8% 46.0% -8% 35% 38% 37.8% -8% 35% 38% 38.0% 0% 32% 33% 33% -8% 34% 38% 37.9% 37.9% -8% 34% 37% 37.4% 37.5% -8% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 139655 (58.9%) 92169 (38.9%) 5157 (2.2%) 236981 #REF! #REF! R 42% 40.5% R
  California 43 Joe Baca 1999 60% 66% D D 60% 65% 65% D 66% Landslide 65.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.5 66% 66% 66% 16% 2 59.9% 65.7% 65.6% 65.5% 68.4% 20% 59.9% 1% 66% 66% 65.7% 0% 65% 66% 65.5% 1% 66% 66% 66% 1% 66% 65% 65.6% 65.6% 0% 65% 65% 65.5% 68.4% 6% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 41272 (34.3%) 76710 (63.8%) 2293 (1.9%) 120275 #REF! #REF! D 65% 65.4% D
  California 44 Ken Calvert 1992 74% 63% R R 46% 46% 46% R 58% Comfortable 42.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 26% 37% 37% 8% 3 50.0% 42.6% 42.6% 42.0% 42.6% 0% 50.0% -9% 40% 43% 42.6% -20% 32% 39% 39.0% 11% 37% 33% 37% -9% 38% 43% 42.6% 42.6% -9% 38% 42% 42.0% 42.6% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 101897 (53.3%) 84048 (44.0%) 5143 (2.7%) 191088 #REF! #REF! R 46% 45.6% R
  California 45 Mary Bono 1998 59% 65% R R 49% 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 40% 35% 40% 5% 3 50.0% 43.8% 44.3% 44.8% 45.2% 0% 50.0% -13% 39% 44% 43.8% -8% 43% 45% 45.4% -5% 35% 36% 36% -12% 37% 44% 44.3% 44.3% -8% 41% 45% 44.8% 45.2% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 93802 (51.2%) 85427 (46.6%) 4029 (2.2%) 183258 #REF! #REF! R 48% 48.2% C
  California 46 Dana Rohrabacher 1988 62% 62% R R 42% 43% 43% R 58% Comfortable 41.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 8.0 39% 38% 39% 8% 3 48.8% 41.6% 41.7% 41.6% 40.3% 2% 48.8% -5% 40% 42% 41.6% -4% 41% 42% 41.9% -1% 38% 39% 39% -5% 40% 42% 41.7% 41.7% -4% 40% 42% 41.6% 40.3% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 145729 (54.8%) 110984 (41.7%) 9413 (3.5%) 266126 #REF! #REF! R 43% 43.3% R
  California 47 Loretta Sanchez 1996 60% 61% D D 57% 58% 58% D 59% Comfortable 59.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 62% 61% 61% 9% 3 52.5% 58.9% 58.9% 59.1% 61.0% 5% 52.5% 3% 59% 60% 58.9% 4% 59% 60% 59.2% -1% 61% 61% 61% 3% 59% 60% 58.9% 58.9% 3% 59% 60% 59.1% 61.0% 1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 43752 (41.5%) 59515 (56.4%) 2257 (2.1%) 105524 #REF! #REF! D 58% 58.0% D
  California 48 Christopher Cox 1988 66% 68% R R 41% 41% 41% R 62% Landslide 38.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 35% 32% 35% 12% 3 46.6% 37.9% 38.3% 38.5% 38.1% 7% 46.6% -10% 35% 38% 37.9% -7% 37% 39% 38.9% -3% 32% 33% 33% -9% 34% 38% 38.3% 38.3% -7% 36% 38% 38.5% 38.1% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 156340 (57.8%) 106809 (39.5%) 7421 (2.7%) 270570 #REF! #REF! R 41% 41.1% R
  California 49 Darrell Issa 2000 61% 78% R R 38% 40% 40% R 64% Landslide 36.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 41% 22% 41% 14% 2 45.9% 34.3% 36.4% 42.2% 37.4% 8% 45.9% -18% 28% 34% 34.3% 1% 41% 41% 40.9% -19% 22% 28% 28% -12% 29% 36% 36.4% 36.4% 1% 42% 41% 42.2% 37.4% 3% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 114193 (58.6%) 75561 (38.8%) 5217 (2.7%) 194971 #REF! #REF! R 40% 40.4% R
  California 50 Duke Cunningham 1990 64% 64% R R 43% 44% 44% R 59% Comfortable 41.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 7.0 37% 36% 37% 9% 3 49.6% 41.3% 41.5% 41.3% 41.1% 1% 49.6% -8% 38% 41% 41.3% -7% 39% 42% 41.8% -1% 36% 36% 36% -8% 37% 41% 41.5% 41.5% -7% 38% 41% 41.3% 41.1% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 136311 (53.9%) 107436 (42.5%) 8996 (3.6%) 252743 #REF! #REF! R 44% 44.1% R
  California 51 Bob Filner 1992 68% 58% D D 61% 58% 58% D 57% Comfortable 56.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 65% 58% 58% 7% 3 53.0% 58.1% 56.9% 56.9% 61.5% 6% 53.0% -1% 58% 58% 58.1% 7% 61% 63% 60.8% -8% 60% 58% 58% -1% 58% 57% 56.9% 56.9% -1% 58% 57% 56.9% 61.5% -3% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 61008 (40.6%) 85561 (56.9%) 3819 (2.5%) 150388 #REF! #REF! D 59% 58.5% D
  California 52 Duncan Hunter 1980 65% 70% R R 43% 41% 41% R 62% Landslide 37.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.0 33% 30% 33% 12% 3 46.6% 37.4% 37.8% 37.9% 38.1% 7% 46.6% -11% 34% 37% 37.4% -8% 36% 38% 38.4% -3% 30% 31% 31% -10% 32% 38% 37.8% 37.8% -8% 34% 38% 37.9% 38.1% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 143081 (57.3%) 98633 (39.5%) 7833 (3.1%) 249547 #REF! #REF! R 41% 41.1% R
  California 53 Susan Davis 2000 50% 62% D D 55% 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 59.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 54% 62% 54% 9% 2 53.6% 60.1% 59.2% 52.9% 62.1% 7% 53.6% 3% 60% 61% 60.1% -5% 57% 56% 55.7% 8% 59% 62% 59% 0% 59% 58% 59.2% 59.2% -5% 57% 53% 52.9% 62.1% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 74526 (37.5%) 114435 (57.5%) 9944 (5.0%) 198905 #REF! #REF! D 59% 59.1% D
  Colorado 1 Diana DeGette 1996 69% 66% D D 66% 62% 62% D 63% Landslide 63.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 65% 66% 65% 13% 3 56.8% 63.6% 63.5% 63.4% 65.3% 14% 56.8% 4% 64% 65% 63.6% 3% 63% 64% 63.2% 1% 66% 66% 66% 4% 63% 65% 63.5% 63.5% 3% 63% 64% 63.4% 65.3% -4% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 72455 (32.8%) 134187 (60.7%) 14430 (6.5%) 221072 #REF! #REF! D 65% 62.3% D
  Colorado 2 Mark Udall 1998 55% 60% D D 52% 54% 54% D 55% Tight 54.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 3.0 56% 60% 56% 5% 3 50.0% 55.8% 55.4% 54.7% 56.7% 0% 50.0% 6% 56% 58% 55.8% 3% 55% 55% 54.5% 4% 59% 60% 59% 5% 55% 58% 55.4% 55.4% 3% 55% 55% 54.7% 56.7% 1% 0% D-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 103518 (42.6%) 126607 (52.1%) 13107 (5.4%) 243232 #REF! #REF! D 53% 53.7% D
O Colorado 3 Open (Scott McInnis) 1992 1 66% 66% R R 44% 41% 41% R 54% Tight 46.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Change 0% 50% 6.0 34% 34% 34% 4% 0 46.1% 38.5% 38.5% 38.0% 37.6% 8% 46.1% -6% 36% 38% 38.5% -6% 36% 38% 38.5% 0% 34% 34% 34% -6% 35% 38% 38.5% 38.5% -6% 35% 38% 38.0% 37.6% 0% 0% R-Tight 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 140191 (53.5%) 102100 (39.0%) 19585 (7.5%) 261876 #REF! #REF! R 44% 40.6% R
  Colorado 4 Marilyn Musgrave 2002 79% 55% R R 40% 38% 38% R 57% Comfortable 42.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 18% 45% 45% 7% 1 43.6% 42.7% 46.1% 46.1% 35.1% 13% 43.6% 7% 43% 40% 42.7% -20% 25% 32% 31.6% 27% 45% 36% 45% 7% 46% 40% 46.1% 46.1% 7% 46% 41% 46.1% 35.1% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 145056 (57.1%) 92602 (36.5%) 16271 (6.4%) 253929 #REF! #REF! R 39% 38.1% R
  Colorado 5 Joel Hefley 1986 83% 69% R R 37% 33% 33% R 68% Landslide 32.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 14% 31% 31% 18% 3 38.4% 32.1% 32.1% 32.0% 29.9% 23% 38.4% -2% 31% 32% 32.1% -19% 20% 26% 26.5% 17% 31% 25% 31% -2% 32% 32% 32.1% 32.1% -2% 32% 32% 32.0% 29.9% -4% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 151751 (63.3%) 74940 (31.3%) 13116 (5.5%) 239807 #REF! #REF! R 36% 32.9% R
  Colorado 6 Tom Tancredo 1998 54% 67% R R 49% 39% 39% R 62% Landslide 37.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 36% 33% 36% 12% 3 44.2% 36.8% 37.1% 37.6% 35.7% 12% 44.2% -6% 35% 37% 36.8% -3% 37% 38% 37.8% -3% 33% 34% 34% -5% 35% 37% 37.1% 37.1% -3% 37% 38% 37.6% 35.7% -10% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 169205 (60.2%) 104126 (37.1%) 7580 (2.7%) 280911 #REF! #REF! R 42% 38.7% R
  Colorado 7 Bob Beauprez 2002   47%   R New 51% 51% Competitive 48% Competitive 52.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 ###### 53% ##### 2% 1 50.0% 52.2% ##### #VALUE! 48.4% 0% 50.0% 1% 52% 52% 52.2% #### ### #### ###### ##### 53% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 48.4% ###### 0% R-Competitive 1 #VALUE! 1-under #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 101632 (48.9%) 103592 (49.8%) 2783 (1.3%) 208007 #REF! #REF! R 53% 51.4% C
  Connecticut 1 John Larson 1998 72% 67% D D 65% 64% 64% D 65% Landslide 64.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 71% 67% 67% 15% 3 58.0% 64.6% 64.6% 64.8% 66.5% 16% 58.0% 3% 65% 66% 64.6% 7% 66% 68% 65.9% -4% 68% 67% 67% 3% 65% 66% 64.6% 64.6% 3% 65% 66% 64.8% 66.5% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 96411 (33.3%) 178977 (61.9%) 13731 (4.7%) 289119 #REF! #REF! 63.5% D
  Connecticut 2 Rob Simmons 2000 51% 54% R R 58% 56% 56% Competitive 47% Competitive 52.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 47% 46% 47% 3% 2 50.1% 52.4% 52.5% 52.2% 52.6% 0% 50.1% -10% 49% 52% 52.4% -8% 50% 53% 52.8% -1% 46% 46% 46% -9% 47% 53% 52.5% 52.5% -8% 48% 52% 52.2% 52.6% -2% 0% R-Competitive 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 119184 (39.5%) 162762 (54.0%) 19587 (6.5%) 301533 #REF! #REF! 55.6% D
  Connecticut 3 Rosa DeLauro 1990 72% 66% D D 62% 62% 62% D 63% Landslide 63.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 71% 66% 66% 13% 3 56.1% 62.9% 62.9% 63.2% 64.6% 12% 56.1% 4% 63% 64% 62.9% 9% 65% 68% 64.8% -6% 67% 66% 66% 4% 63% 65% 62.9% 62.9% 4% 63% 65% 63.2% 64.6% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 96446 (34.4%) 168196 (60.0%) 15455 (5.5%) 280097 #REF! #REF! 61.6% D
  Connecticut 4 Christopher Shays 1987 58% 64% R R 57% 55% 55% Competitive 51% Competitive 48.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 8.5 40% 36% 40% 1% 3 50.0% 48.4% 48.9% 48.9% 51.8% 0% 50.0% -19% 42% 48% 48.4% -15% 45% 50% 49.9% -5% 36% 37% 37% -18% 38% 49% 48.9% 48.9% -15% 41% 49% 48.9% 51.8% -2% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 120140 (43.2%) 148022 (53.2%) 10219 (3.7%) 278381 #REF! #REF! 54.8% D
  Connecticut 5 Nancy Johnson 1982 54% 54% R R 55% 54% 54% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 11.0 45% 46% 46% 0% 3 50.0% 51.0% 51.0% 50.5% 50.6% 0% 50.0% -8% 48% 51% 51.0% -8% 48% 51% 50.9% 0% 46% 46% 46% -8% 47% 51% 51.0% 51.0% -8% 47% 50% 50.5% 50.6% -1% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 121424 (43.1%) 146599 (52.0%) 13887 (4.9%) 281910 #REF! #REF! 53.6% D
  Delaware 1 Michael Castle 1992 68% 72% R R 57% 57% 57% R 53% Tight 47.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 6.0 32% 28% 32% 3% 3 51.2% 47.2% 47.7% 47.0% 53.7% 2% 51.2% -29% 37% 47% 47.2% -24% 40% 49% 48.7% -5% 28% 29% 29% -27% 30% 48% 47.7% 47.7% -24% 33% 47% 47.0% 53.7% 0% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 137081 (41.8%) 180638 (55.1%) 10151 (3.1%) 327870 56.7% D
  Florida 1 Jeff Miller 2001 66% 75% R R 32% 33% 33% R 70% Landslide 30.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 35% 25% 35% 20% 1 38.2% 30.3% 31.3% 35.9% 29.7% 24% 38.2% -7% 28% 30% 30.3% 2% 34% 33% 34.2% -9% 25% 29% 29% -4% 30% 31% 31.3% 31.3% 2% 36% 34% 35.9% 29.7% 1% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 173896 (68.9%) 78469 (31.1%)   (0.0%) 252365 #REF! #REF! 32.7% R
  Florida 2 Allen Boyd 1996 72% 67% D D 51% 49% 49% D 56% Comfortable 56.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 70% 67% 67% 6% 3 50.0% 54.8% 54.8% 56.1% 51.9% 0% 50.0% 18% 55% 61% 54.8% 21% 56% 63% 55.8% -3% 68% 67% 67% 18% 55% 66% 54.8% 54.8% 18% 56% 66% 56.1% 51.9% -2% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 132275 (52.7%) 118758 (47.3%)   (0.0%) 251033 #REF! #REF! 48.9% C
U Florida 3 Corrine Brown 1992 58% 59% D D 63% 67% 67% D 58% Comfortable 58.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 62% 59% 59% 8% 3 61.2% 61.7% 58.3% 58.3% 69.7% 22% 61.2% -7% 64% 62% 61.7% -5% 65% 63% 63.3% -2% 60% 59% 59% -7% 64% 58% 58.3% 58.3% -7% 64% 58% 58.3% 69.7% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 59144 (34.9%) 110501 (65.1%)   (0.0%) 169645 #REF! #REF! 66.7% D
U Florida 4 Ander Crenshaw 2000 67% 100% R R 38% 36% 36% R 66% Landslide 34.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 31% 0% 31% 16% 2 41.3% 24.1% 34.3% 34.0% 32.8% 17% 41.3% -35% 12% 24% 24.1% -4% 33% 34% 34.3% -31% 0% 11% 11% -25% 12% 27% 27.4% 34.3% -4% 32% 34% 34.0% 32.8% -2% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-uncont 1 154615 (65.8%) 80227 (34.2%)   (0.0%) 234842 #REF! #REF! 35.8% R
  Florida 5 Virginia Brown-Waite 2002 64% 48% D R 54% 48% 48% Competitive 49% Competitive 50.6%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 58% 52% 58% 1% 1 50.0% 50.6% 55.1% 59.2% 44.5% 0% 50.0% 5% 51% 49% 50.6% 11% 55% 51% 54.6% -6% 52% 54% 54% 7% 55% 50% 55.1% 55.1% 11% 59% 52% 59.2% 44.5% -6% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 147231 (54.1%) 124982 (45.9%)   (0.0%) 272213 #REF! #REF! 47.5% C
  Florida 6 Cliff Stearns 1988 100% 65% R R 41% 43% 43% R 60% Landslide 39.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 3% 35% 35% 10% 3 48.9% 40.5% 40.5% 39.9% 40.4% 2% 48.9% -9% 38% 40% 40.5% -41% 16% 30% 29.9% 32% 35% 24% 35% -9% 36% 40% 40.5% 40.5% -9% 36% 40% 39.9% 40.4% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 142489 (58.2%) 102179 (41.8%)   (0.0%) 244668 #REF! #REF! 43.4% R
UU Florida 7 John Mica 1992 63% 60% R R 50% 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 35% 40% 40% 5% 3 50.0% 45.3% 45.3% 44.8% 44.7% 0% 50.0% -7% 43% 45% 45.3% -13% 39% 43% 43.4% 6% 40% 38% 40% -7% 41% 45% 45.3% 45.3% -7% 41% 45% 44.8% 44.7% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 143672 (53.9%) 122818 (46.1%)   (0.0%) 266490 #REF! #REF! 47.7% C
  Florida 8 Ric Keller 2000 51% 65% R R 50% 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 47% 35% 47% 5% 2 50.0% 43.6% 44.9% 47.4% 44.9% 0% 50.0% -13% 39% 44% 43.6% -1% 47% 47% 47.5% -12% 35% 39% 39% -9% 40% 45% 44.9% 44.9% -1% 48% 47% 47.4% 44.9% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 119139 (53.7%) 102538 (46.3%)   (0.0%) 221677 #REF! #REF! 47.9% C
U Florida 9 Michael Bilirakis 1982 82% 71% R R 48% 47% 47% R 60% Landslide 39.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 18% 29% 29% 10% 3 50.0% 41.2% 41.2% 39.9% 44.4% 0% 50.0% -19% 35% 41% 41.2% -29% 28% 38% 37.7% 11% 29% 25% 29% -19% 30% 41% 41.2% 41.2% -19% 30% 40% 39.9% 44.4% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 146735 (54.2%) 124242 (45.8%)   (0.0%) 270977 #REF! #REF! 47.4% C
2 Florida 10 C.W. (Bill) Young 1970 76% 100% R R 56% 52% 52% Competitive 51% Competitive 49.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 17.0 20% 0% 20% 1% 4 50.0% 35.1% 41.8% 39.6% 49.4% 0% 50.0% -52% 17% 35% 35.1% -32% 31% 42% 41.8% -20% 0% 7% 7% -46% 8% 37% 37.3% 41.8% -32% 21% 40% 39.6% 1 49.4% -4% 0% R-Competitive 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 133004 (49.2%) 137286 (50.8%)   (0.0%) 270290 #REF! #REF! 52.4% C
2  U Florida 11 Jim Davis 1996 85% 100% D D 56% 63% 63% D 66% Landslide 65.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 91% 100% 91% 16% 4 57.1% 74.9% 71.9% 73.9% 65.6% 14% 57.1% 37% 75% 88% 74.9% 28% 72% 82% 71.9% 9% 97% 100% 97% 34% 74% 96% 73.9% 71.9% 28% 74% 90% 73.9% 1 65.6% 6% 0% D-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 77367 (39.0%) 120926 (61.0%)   (0.0%) 198293 #REF! #REF! 62.6% D
  Florida 12 Adam Putnam 2000 57% 100% R R 45% 47% 47% R 54% Tight 46.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 2.0 45% 0% 45% 4% 2 50.0% 31.3% 46.1% 45.9% 43.8% 0% 50.0% -47% 15% 31% 31.3% -2% 45% 46% 46.1% -45% 0% 15% 15% -32% 16% 36% 36.2% 46.1% -2% 46% 46% 45.9% 43.8% 2% 0% R-Tight 2 2-over3 2-over 2-uncont 1 121083 (54.8%) 99826 (45.2%)   (0.0%) 220909 #REF! #REF! 46.8% R
  Florida 13 Katherine Harris 2002 64% 55% R R 48% 47% 47% R 53% Tight 46.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 36% 45% 45% 3% 1 50.0% 46.5% 46.5% 46.4% 44.1% 0% 50.0% -2% 46% 47% 46.5% -12% 39% 43% 43.3% 10% 45% 42% 45% -2% 46% 47% 46.5% 46.5% -2% 46% 46% 46.4% 44.1% -1% 0% R-Tight 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 152725 (54.5%) 127751 (45.5%)   (0.0%) 280476 #REF! #REF! 47.1% C
O Florida 14 Open (Porter Goss) 1988 1 85% 100% R R 41% 40% 40% R 54% Tight 45.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Change 0% 50% 8.0 15% 0% 15% 4% 0 45.7% 27.0% 31.8% 30.0% 37.2% 9% 45.7% -40% 13% 27% 27.0% -26% 23% 32% 31.8% -15% 0% 5% 5% -35% 6% 29% 28.6% 31.8% -26% 16% 30% 30.0% 37.2% 0% 0% R-Tight 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 163750 (61.4%) 103118 (38.6%)   (0.0%) 266868 #REF! #REF! 40.2% R
  Florida 15 Dave Weldon 1994 59% 63% R R 47% 48% 48% R 54% Tight 45.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 5.0 42% 37% 42% 4% 3 50.0% 44.2% 44.8% 45.6% 44.9% 0% 50.0% -11% 40% 44% 44.2% -6% 44% 46% 46.0% -5% 37% 39% 39% -9% 40% 45% 44.8% 44.8% -6% 43% 46% 45.6% 44.9% 1% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141242 (53.7%) 121611 (46.3%)   (0.0%) 262853 #REF! #REF! 47.9% C
  Florida 16 Mark Foley 1994 60% 79% R R 53% 49% 49% R 57% Comfortable 43.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 35% 21% 35% 7% 3 50.0% 39.5% 41.0% 43.2% 45.5% 0% 50.0% -27% 30% 39% 39.5% -13% 40% 44% 44.1% -14% 21% 26% 26% -23% 27% 41% 41.0% 41.0% -13% 36% 43% 43.2% 45.5% -5% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141029 (53.1%) 124752 (46.9%)   (0.0%) 265781 #REF! #REF! 48.5% C
U Florida 17 Kendrick Meek 2002 100% 100% D D 87% 86% 86% D 91% Landslide 90.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 100% 100% 100% 41% 1 80.9% 90.9% 90.8% 91.7% 89.4% 62% 80.9% 14% 91% 95% 90.9% 13% 91% 95% 90.8% 0% ### 100% 100% 13% 91% 99% 90.8% 90.8% 13% 92% 99% 91.7% 89.4% 0% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-uncont 1 26081 (15.2%) 145341 (84.8%)   (0.0%) 171422 #REF! #REF! 86.4% D
  Florida 18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 1989 100% 69% R R 40% 45% 45% R 61% Landslide 39.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.5 5% 31% 31% 11% 3 50.0% 40.2% 40.2% 39.3% 41.8% 0% 50.0% -14% 35% 40% 40.2% -40% 18% 32% 31.7% 26% 31% 22% 31% -14% 32% 40% 40.2% 40.2% -14% 32% 39% 39.3% 41.8% 5% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 109596 (56.8%) 83524 (43.2%)   (0.0%) 193120 #REF! #REF! 44.8% R
UU Florida 19 Robert Wexler 1996 72% 72% D D 71% 74% 74% D 71% Landslide 71.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 75% 72% 72% 21% 3 68.9% 72.9% 71.2% 71.2% 77.4% 38% 68.9% -2% 74% 73% 72.9% 1% 75% 75% 74.6% -3% 73% 72% 72% -2% 74% 71% 71.2% 71.2% -2% 73% 71% 71.2% 77.4% 3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 71544 (27.2%) 191382 (72.8%)   (0.0%) 262926 #REF! #REF! 74.4% D
O Florida 20 Open (Peter Deutsch) 1992 1 100% 100% D D 65% 71% 71% D 65% Landslide 65.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 6.0 100% 100% 100% 15% 0 65.1% 80.3% 80.2% 82.3% 73.6% 30% 65.1% 29% 80% 90% 80.3% 29% 80% 90% 80.2% 0% ### 100% 100% 29% 80% 99% 80.3% 80.2% 29% 82% 99% 82.3% 73.6% 0% 0% D-Landslide 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 72553 (31.0%) 161154 (69.0%)   (0.0%) 233707 #REF! #REF! 70.6% D
2  U Florida 21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 1992 100% 100% R R 39% 44% 44% R 59% Comfortable 40.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 5% 0% 5% 9% 4 49.2% 29.3% 31.0% 28.3% 40.7% 2% 49.2% -44% 14% 29% 29.3% -38% 18% 31% 31.0% -5% 0% 2% 2% -42% 3% 30% 29.9% 31.0% -38% 6% 28% 28.3% 1 40.7% 5% 0% R-Comfortable 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 104888 (57.9%) 76322 (42.1%)   (0.0%) 181210 #REF! #REF! 43.7% R
  Florida 22 Clay Shaw 1980 50% 61% R R 62% 54% 54% Competitive 51% Competitive 49.3%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 12.0 42% 39% 42% 1% 3 50.0% 49.1% 49.5% 49.3% 51.0% 0% 50.0% -15% 44% 49% 49.1% -12% 46% 50% 50.1% -3% 39% 40% 40% -14% 41% 49% 49.5% 49.5% -12% 43% 49% 49.3% 51.0% -8% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 123302 (47.6%) 135868 (52.4%)   (0.0%) 259170 #REF! #REF! 54.0% D
UU Florida 23 Alcee Hastings 1992 76% 77% D D 82% 81% 81% D 75% Landslide 74.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 76% 77% 76% 25% 3 75.9% 78.8% 75.9% 74.8% 84.4% 52% 75.9% -4% 80% 79% 78.8% -6% 80% 78% 77.7% 2% 77% 77% 77% -4% 80% 76% 75.9% 75.9% -6% 79% 75% 74.8% 84.4% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 33034 (20.2%) 130518 (79.8%)   (0.0%) 163552 #REF! #REF! 81.4% D
UU Florida 24 Tom Feeney 2002   62%   R New 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 ###### 38% ##### 5% 1 50.0% 44.9% ##### #VALUE! 45.2% 0% 50.0% -10% 41% 45% 44.9% #### ### #### ###### ##### 38% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 45.2% ###### 0% R-Comfortable 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 133531 (53.4%) 116502 (46.6%)   (0.0%) 250033 #REF! #REF! 48.2% C
UU Florida 25 Mario Diaz-Balart 2002   65%   R New 47% 47% R 57% Comfortable 42.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 ###### 35% ##### 7% 1 50.0% 42.8% ##### #VALUE! 43.5% 0% 50.0% -11% 39% 43% 42.8% #### ### #### ###### ##### 35% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 43.5% ###### 0% R-Comfortable 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 88308 (55.1%) 72050 (44.9%)   (0.0%) 160358 #REF! #REF! 46.5% R
UU Georgia 1 Jack Kingston 1992 69% 72% R R 44% 37% 37% R 67% Landslide 33.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 23% 28% 28% 17% 3 42.4% 33.9% 33.9% 33.3% 33.9% 15% 42.4% -9% 31% 34% 33.9% -13% 28% 32% 32.4% 4% 28% 26% 28% -9% 29% 34% 33.9% 33.9% -9% 29% 33% 33.3% 33.9% -7% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 119133 (63.9%) 65744 (35.3%) 1524 (0.8%) 186401 #REF! #REF! 36.9% R
  Georgia 2 Sanford Bishop 1992 53% 100% D D 47% 50% 50% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 56% 100% 56% 3% 3 50.0% 66.7% 52.3% 52.8% 53.3% 0% 50.0% 50% 67% 84% 66.7% 6% 52% 54% 52.3% 44% 86% 100% 86% 35% 62% 85% 62.0% 52.3% 6% 53% 55% 52.8% 53.3% 3% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 84854 (50.6%) 81684 (48.7%) 1160 (0.7%) 167698 #REF! #REF! 50.3% C
  Georgia 3 Jim Marshall 2002   51%   D New 49% 49% Competitive 49% Competitive 49.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 ###### 51% ##### 1% 1 50.0% 49.4% ##### #VALUE! 51.8% 0% 50.0% 2% 49% 50% 49.4% #### ### #### ###### ##### ### 51% #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 51.8% ###### 0% D-Competitive 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 98100 (51.8%) 89374 (47.2%) 1766 (0.9%) 189240 #REF! #REF! 48.8% C
O Georgia 4 Open (Denise Majette ) 2002 1 61% 77% D D 72% 71% 71% D 65% Landslide 65.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 1.0 61% 77% 61% 15% 0 65.4% 72.9% 71.1% 59.7% 73.9% 31% 65.4% 6% 73% 75% 72.9% -10% 68% 64% 64.1% 16% 72% 77% 72% 1% 71% 71% 71.1% 71.1% -10% 67% 60% 59.7% 73.9% 0% 0% D-Landslide 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 58338 (28.7%) 140767 (69.3%) 4107 (2.0%) 203212 #REF! #REF! 70.9% D
UU Georgia 5 John Lewis 1986 77% 100% D D 79% 71% 71% D 69% Landslide 69.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 70% 100% 70% 19% 3 66.0% 80.9% 70.5% 69.1% 74.5% 32% 66.0% 29% 81% 91% 80.9% -1% 71% 71% 70.5% 30% 90% 100% 90% 19% 78% 89% 77.6% 70.5% -1% 71% 69% 69.1% 74.5% -7% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-uncont 1 55605 (28.5%) 136606 (69.9%) 3232 (1.7%) 195443 #REF! #REF! 71.5% D
O UU Georgia 6 Open (Johnny Isakson) 1999 1 75% 80% R R 35% 32% 32% R 63% Landslide 37.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 2.5 25% 20% 25% 13% 0 37.2% 27.8% 28.4% 29.1% 28.7% 26% 37.2% -12% 24% 28% 27.8% -6% 27% 30% 29.5% -5% 20% 22% 22% -10% 23% 28% 28.4% 28.4% -6% 26% 29% 29.1% 28.7% 0% 0% R-Landslide 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 174414 (67.5%) 77646 (30.1%) 6303 (2.4%) 258363 #REF! #REF! 31.7% R
UU Georgia 7 John Linder 1992 100% 79% R R 37% 29% 29% R 74% Landslide 25.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 -8% 21% 21% 24% 3 34.2% 26.2% 26.2% 25.7% 25.7% 32% 34.2% -8% 24% 26% 26.2% -37% 4% 17% 16.7% 29% 21% 12% 21% -8% 22% 26% 26.2% 26.2% -8% 22% 26% 25.7% 25.7% -8% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 154575 (69.8%) 60082 (27.1%) 6694 (3.0%) 221351 #REF! #REF! 28.7% R
O Georgia 8 Open (Mac Collins) 1992 1 64% 78% R R 45% 31% 31% R 64% Landslide 36.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 6.0 36% 22% 36% 14% 0 36.4% 27.9% 29.5% 37.5% 27.9% 27% 36.4% -9% 25% 28% 27.9% 6% 35% 33% 34.7% -15% 22% 27% 27% -4% 28% 30% 29.5% 29.5% 6% 37% 33% 37.5% 27.9% 0% 0% R-Landslide 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 157703 (68.9%) 67192 (29.3%) 4098 (1.8%) 228993 #REF! #REF! 30.9% R
UU Georgia 9 Charlie Norwood 1994 63% 73% R R 47% 33% 33% R 69% Landslide 30.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 23% 27% 27% 19% 3 38.8% 31.3% 31.3% 30.9% 30.3% 22% 38.8% -6% 29% 31% 31.3% -10% 27% 30% 30.0% 4% 27% 26% 27% -6% 28% 31% 31.3% 31.3% -6% 28% 31% 30.9% 30.3% -13% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 141065 (66.4%) 67451 (31.7%) 4025 (1.9%) 212541 #REF! #REF! 33.3% R
U Georgia 10 Nathan Deal 1992 75% 100% R R 30% 30% 30% R 72% Landslide 27.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 24% 0% 24% 22% 3 35.3% 20.0% 28.0% 27.6% 26.8% 29% 35.3% -30% 10% 20% 20.0% -6% 26% 28% 28.0% -24% 0% 8% 8% -22% 9% 23% 22.6% 28.0% -6% 25% 28% 27.6% 26.8% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 134619 (69.4%) 54633 (28.2%) 4614 (2.4%) 193866 #REF! #REF! 29.8% R
  Georgia 11 Phil Gingrey 2002 100% 52% R R 41% 49% 49% Competitive 51% Competitive 48.6%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 8% 48% 48% 1% 1 50.0% 48.6% 48.6% 48.6% 45.7% 0% 50.0% 0% 48% 49% 48.6% -41% 21% 35% 35.2% 41% 48% 35% 48% 0% 49% 49% 48.6% 48.6% 0% 49% 49% 48.6% 45.7% 8% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 93359 (51.4%) 85542 (47.1%) 2632 (1.4%) 181533 #REF! #REF! 48.7% C
  Georgia 12 Max Burns 2002   55%   R New 55% 55% Competitive 48% Competitive 51.7%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 ###### 45% ##### 2% 1 50.0% 51.7% ##### #VALUE! 52.1% 0% 50.0% -10% 48% 52% 51.7% #### ### #### ###### ##### 45% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 52.1% ###### 0% R-Competitive 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 80665 (45.0%) 95845 (53.5%) 2636 (1.5%) 179146 #REF! #REF! 55.1% D
U Georgia 13 David Scott 2002   60%   D New 58% 58% D 59% Comfortable 58.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 ###### 60% ##### 9% 1 52.9% 58.8% ##### #VALUE! 61.4% 6% 52.9% 1% 59% 59% 58.8% #### ### #### ###### ##### ### 60% #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 61.4% ###### 0% D-Comfortable 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 66576 (41.1%) 91895 (56.8%) 3392 (2.1%) 161863 #REF! #REF! 58.4% D
  Hawaii 1 Neil Abercrombie 1990 69% 73% D D 57% 57% 57% D 62% Landslide 61.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 69% 73% 69% 12% 3 51.5% 62.2% 61.8% 61.9% 60.0% 3% 51.5% 16% 62% 68% 62.2% 12% 61% 65% 61.1% 3% 72% 73% 72% 15% 62% 71% 61.8% 61.8% 12% 62% 68% 61.9% 60.0% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 70674 (39.0%) 100403 (55.4%) 10211 (5.6%) 181288 57.0% D
V Hawaii 2 Edward Case 2003 62% 42% D D 58% 58% 58% Competitive 47% Competitive 47.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 0.5 62% 42% 42% 3% 1 52.3% 47.4% 41.3% 41.3% 60.8% 5% 52.3% -16% 53% 47% 47.4% 4% 59% 60% 59.1% -19% 49% 42% 42% -16% 53% 41% 41.3% 41.3% -16% 52% 41% 41.3% 60.8% 0% 0% D-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 67118 (36.0%) 104830 (56.2%) 14577 (7.8%) 186525 57.8% D
UU Idaho 1 C.L. "Butch" Otter 2000 65% 59% R R 30% 29% 29% R 58% Comfortable 42.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 35% 41% 41% 8% 2 34.9% 37.5% 42.4% 42.4% 26.4% 30% 34.9% 12% 37% 33% 37.5% 5% 33% 31% 32.9% 7% 41% 39% 41% 12% 42% 33% 42.4% 42.4% 12% 42% 34% 42.4% 26.4% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-under 2-cont 0 2-under23 171364 (67.5%) 70523 (27.8%) 11983 (4.7%) 253870 29.4% R
  Idaho 2 Mike Simpson 1998 71% 68% R R 27% 29% 29% R 67% Landslide 32.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 32% 32% 32% 17% 3 34.8% 31.0% 32.8% 32.8% 26.3% 30% 34.8% 3% 31% 30% 31.0% 2% 31% 30% 30.9% 0% 32% 32% 32% 3% 33% 30% 32.8% 32.8% 3% 33% 30% 32.8% 26.3% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 165559 (67.3%) 68055 (27.7%) 12319 (5.0%) 245933 29.3% R
  Illinois 1 Bobby Rush 1992 88% 81% D D 88% 85% 85% D 80% Landslide 80.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 86% 81% 81% 30% 3 79.8% 82.5% 80.2% 80.2% 88.3% 60% 79.8% -4% 84% 83% 82.5% 0% 85% 85% 85.4% -4% 83% 81% 81% -4% 84% 80% 80.2% 80.2% -4% 84% 80% 80.2% 88.3% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 39400 (15.5%) 213244 (83.7%) 2097 (0.8%) 254741 #REF! #REF! 85.3% D
UU Illinois 2 Jesse Jackson Jr. 1995 90% 82% D D 89% 84% 84% D 81% Landslide 81.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.5 85% 82% 82% 31% 3 78.6% 82.9% 81.3% 81.3% 87.1% 57% 78.6% -2% 83% 83% 82.9% 1% 84% 85% 84.5% -3% 83% 82% 82% -2% 83% 81% 81.3% 81.3% -2% 83% 81% 81.3% 87.1% -5% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 41005 (16.5%) 204372 (82.5%) 2455 (1.0%) 247832 #REF! #REF! 84.1% D
O Illinois 3 (Open) William Lipinski 1982 1 76% 100% D D 57% 59% 59% D 54% Tight 53.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Change 0% 50% 11.0 76% 100% 76% 4% 0 53.8% 72.8% 64.7% 65.8% 62.3% 8% 53.8% 41% 73% 87% 72.8% 16% 65% 70% 64.7% 24% 92% 100% 92% 33% 70% 91% 70.1% 64.7% 16% 66% 75% 65.8% 62.3% 0% 0% D-Tight 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 91471 (40.1%) 131650 (57.7%) 4913 (2.2%) 228034 #REF! #REF! 59.3% D
  Illinois 4 Luis Gutierrez 1992 89% 80% D D 79% 81% 81% D 79% Landslide 78.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 91% 80% 80% 29% 3 75.8% 80.2% 78.7% 78.7% 84.3% 52% 75.8% -2% 81% 80% 80.2% 10% 85% 88% 84.5% -12% 83% 80% 80% -2% 81% 79% 78.7% 78.7% -2% 81% 79% 78.7% 84.3% 3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 23809 (20.3%) 93266 (79.7%)   (0.0%) 117075 #REF! #REF! 81.3% D
  Illinois 5 Rahm Emanuel 2002 87% 67% D D 64% 68% 68% D 67% Landslide 67.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 91% 67% 67% 17% 1 62.1% 67.1% 65.8% 65.8% 70.6% 24% 62.1% -1% 67% 67% 67.1% 23% 75% 83% 75.2% -24% 75% 67% 67% -1% 67% 66% 65.8% 65.8% -1% 67% 66% 65.8% 70.6% 3% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 73793 (34.0%) 143106 (66.0%)   (0.0%) 216899 #REF! #REF! 67.6% D
  Illinois 6 Henry Hyde 1974 59% 65% R R 46% 45% 45% R 57% Comfortable 43.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 15.0 40% 35% 40% 7% 3 50.0% 41.9% 42.5% 43.3% 42.4% 0% 50.0% -10% 38% 42% 41.9% -5% 42% 44% 43.7% -5% 35% 37% 37% -9% 38% 42% 42.5% 42.5% -5% 41% 43% 43.3% 42.4% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 126254 (53.3%) 103616 (43.8%) 6945 (2.9%) 236815 #REF! #REF! 45.4% R
  Illinois 7 Danny Davis 1996 86% 83% D D 84% 85% 85% D 82% Landslide 82.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 87% 83% 83% 32% 3 79.3% 83.7% 82.2% 82.2% 87.8% 59% 79.3% -2% 84% 84% 83.7% 2% 86% 86% 85.6% -4% 85% 83% 83% -2% 84% 82% 82.2% 82.2% -2% 84% 82% 82.2% 87.8% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 38196 (16.0%) 199064 (83.2%) 1985 (0.8%) 239245 #REF! #REF! 84.8% D
  Illinois 8 Philip Crane 1969 61% 57% R R 43% 43% 43% R 57% Comfortable 42.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 17.5 39% 43% 43% 7% 3 48.6% 42.9% 42.9% 42.9% 40.1% 3% 48.6% -1% 43% 43% 42.9% -4% 40% 42% 41.7% 4% 43% 41% 43% -1% 44% 43% 42.9% 42.9% -1% 44% 43% 42.9% 40.1% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 131967 (55.5%) 98664 (41.5%) 6954 (2.9%) 237585 #REF! #REF! 43.1% R
UU Illinois 9 Janice Schakowsky 1998 76% 70% D D 71% 69% 69% D 69% Landslide 69.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 74% 70% 70% 19% 3 63.5% 69.4% 69.4% 69.5% 72.0% 27% 63.5% 1% 69% 70% 69.4% 6% 71% 73% 70.8% -4% 72% 70% 70% 1% 69% 69% 69.4% 69.4% 1% 69% 69% 69.5% 72.0% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 71064 (30.8%) 155529 (67.4%) 4331 (1.9%) 230924 #REF! #REF! 69.0% D
  Illinois 10 Mark Kirk 2000 51% 69% R R 54% 52% 52% Competitive 53% Competitive 47.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 47% 31% 47% 3% 2 50.0% 45.4% 47.1% 50.1% 49.4% 0% 50.0% -21% 38% 45% 45.4% -6% 49% 51% 50.5% -16% 31% 36% 36% -16% 37% 47% 47.1% 47.1% -6% 48% 50% 50.1% 49.4% -2% 0% R-Competitive 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 123982 (46.9%) 134149 (50.8%) 6097 (2.3%) 264228 #REF! #REF! 52.4% C
  Illinois 11 Jerry Weller 1994 56% 64% R R 54% 49% 49% R 55% Comfortable 44.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 39% 36% 39% 5% 3 50.0% 44.7% 45.0% 44.9% 46.2% 0% 50.0% -13% 40% 45% 44.7% -11% 42% 46% 45.7% -3% 36% 37% 37% -13% 38% 45% 45.0% 45.0% -11% 40% 45% 44.9% 46.2% -5% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 128280 (49.6%) 122979 (47.6%) 7269 (2.8%) 258528 #REF! #REF! 49.2% C
  Illinois 12 Jerry Costello 1988 100% 69% D D 56% 55% 55% D 61% Landslide 60.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 100% 69% 69% 11% 3 50.0% 59.9% 59.9% 60.9% 58.4% 0% 50.0% 14% 60% 65% 59.9% 44% 70% 85% 70.0% -31% 79% 69% 69% 14% 60% 68% 59.9% 59.9% 14% 61% 68% 60.9% 58.4% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 116724 (43.4%) 144548 (53.8%) 7634 (2.8%) 268906 #REF! #REF! 55.4% D
  Illinois 13 Judy Biggert 1998 66% 70% R R 44% 44% 44% R 60% Landslide 39.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 34% 30% 34% 10% 3 49.2% 39.1% 39.5% 39.7% 40.7% 2% 49.2% -14% 34% 39% 39.1% -10% 37% 40% 40.4% -4% 30% 31% 31% -13% 32% 40% 39.5% 39.5% -10% 35% 40% 39.7% 40.7% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 148621 (55.2%) 113450 (42.1%) 7166 (2.7%) 269237 #REF! #REF! 43.7% R
UU Illinois 14 Dennis Hastert 1986 74% 74% R R 43% 44% 44% R 63% Landslide 37.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 27% 26% 27% 13% 3 49.6% 38.1% 38.2% 37.1% 41.1% 1% 49.6% -18% 32% 38% 38.1% -17% 32% 38% 38.4% -1% 26% 26% 26% -18% 27% 38% 38.2% 38.2% -17% 28% 37% 37.1% 41.1% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 129745 (54.4%) 101369 (42.5%) 7428 (3.1%) 238542 #REF! #REF! 44.1% R
  Illinois 15 Timothy Johnson 2000 53% 65% R R 45% 44% 44% R 58% Comfortable 42.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 46% 35% 46% 8% 2 49.6% 41.0% 42.2% 46.5% 41.1% 1% 49.6% -9% 38% 41% 41.0% 1% 45% 45% 45.0% -11% 35% 38% 38% -6% 39% 42% 42.2% 42.2% 1% 47% 45% 46.5% 41.1% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 148176 (54.0%) 116436 (42.5%) 9616 (3.5%) 274228 #REF! #REF! 44.1% R
  Illinois 16 Donald Manzullo 1992 67% 71% R R 44% 45% 45% R 60% Comfortable 40.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 34% 29% 34% 10% 3 50.0% 39.6% 40.0% 40.2% 41.6% 0% 50.0% -15% 34% 40% 39.6% -11% 37% 41% 41.0% -4% 29% 31% 31% -14% 32% 40% 40.0% 40.0% -11% 35% 40% 40.2% 41.6% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141878 (53.9%) 113020 (43.0%) 8163 (3.1%) 263061 #REF! #REF! 44.6% R
  Illinois 17 Lane Evans 1982 55% 62% D D 53% 55% 55% D 56% Comfortable 56.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 11.0 57% 62% 57% 6% 3 50.0% 57.5% 57.0% 56.1% 58.1% 0% 50.0% 7% 58% 60% 57.5% 2% 56% 57% 55.9% 5% 61% 62% 61% 6% 57% 60% 57.0% 57.0% 2% 56% 56% 56.1% 58.1% 3% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 119563 (43.6%) 146548 (53.5%) 7807 (2.9%) 273918 #REF! #REF! 55.1% D
  Illinois 18 Ray LaHood 1994 67% 100% R R 44% 45% 45% R 59% Comfortable 40.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 34% 0% 34% 9% 3 50.0% 30.2% 41.4% 40.6% 42.1% 0% 50.0% -45% 15% 30% 30.2% -11% 38% 41% 41.4% -34% 0% 11% 11% -34% 12% 34% 33.9% 41.4% -11% 35% 41% 40.6% 42.1% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 159475 (54.0%) 128411 (43.5%) 7464 (2.5%) 295350 #REF! #REF! 45.1% R
  Illinois 19 John Shimkus 1996 65% 55% R R 47% 43% 43% R 54% Tight 46.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 4.0 32% 45% 45% 4% 3 48.4% 44.5% 46.2% 46.2% 39.9% 3% 48.4% 2% 44% 44% 44.5% -11% 35% 39% 39.3% 13% 45% 41% 45% 2% 46% 44% 46.2% 46.2% 2% 46% 44% 46.2% 39.9% -4% 0% R-Tight 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 164541 (56.1%) 121210 (41.3%) 7621 (2.6%) 293372 #REF! #REF! 42.9% R
  Indiana 1 Peter Visclosky 1984 72% 67% D D 61% 58% 58% D 62% Landslide 61.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 10.0 68% 67% 67% 12% 3 52.4% 60.9% 60.9% 61.5% 60.9% 5% 52.4% 9% 61% 64% 60.9% 10% 61% 65% 61.3% -1% 67% 67% 67% 9% 61% 66% 60.9% 60.9% 9% 62% 66% 61.5% 60.9% -3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 104917 (41.8%) 141163 (56.3%) 4759 (1.9%) 250839 #REF! #REF! 57.9% D
  Indiana 2 Chris Chocola 2002 52% 50% D R 36% 46% 46% Competitive 52% Competitive 48.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 62% 50% 62% 2% 1 50.0% 48.4% 54.5% 62.6% 43.1% 0% 50.0% 3% 48% 47% 48.4% 16% 56% 51% 56.5% -12% 50% 54% 54% 7% 55% 49% 54.5% 54.5% 16% 63% 52% 62.6% 43.1% 10% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 128803 (53.4%) 107344 (44.5%) 5276 (2.2%) 241423 #REF! #REF! 46.1% R
  Indiana 3 Mark Souder 1994 62% 63% R R 36% 34% 34% R 62% Landslide 37.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 36% 37% 37% 12% 3 40.0% 36.1% 37.9% 37.9% 31.5% 20% 40.0% 2% 36% 35% 36.1% 2% 36% 35% 35.6% 1% 37% 37% 37% 2% 38% 35% 37.9% 37.9% 2% 38% 35% 37.9% 31.5% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 147106 (65.5%) 73775 (32.9%) 3682 (1.6%) 224563 #REF! #REF! 34.5% R
  Indiana 4 Steve Buyer 1992 61% 71% R R 38% 33% 33% R 65% Landslide 34.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 34% 29% 34% 15% 3 38.6% 31.6% 32.2% 34.9% 30.1% 23% 38.6% -4% 30% 32% 31.6% 1% 34% 33% 33.6% -5% 29% 30% 30% -3% 31% 32% 32.2% 32.2% 1% 35% 33% 34.9% 30.1% -5% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 156747 (66.1%) 74660 (31.5%) 5739 (2.4%) 237146 #REF! #REF! 33.1% R
  Indiana 5 Dan Burton 1982 70% 72% R R 31% 31% 31% R 69% Landslide 30.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 30% 28% 30% 19% 3 36.7% 30.1% 30.4% 30.8% 28.2% 27% 36.7% -3% 29% 30% 30.1% -1% 31% 31% 30.9% -2% 28% 29% 29% -2% 30% 30% 30.4% 30.4% -1% 31% 31% 30.8% 28.2% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 187489 (68.5%) 80945 (29.6%) 5110 (1.9%) 273544 #REF! #REF! 31.2% R
  Indiana 6 Mike Pence 2000 51% 64% R R 43% 41% 41% R 59% Comfortable 40.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 47% 36% 47% 9% 2 46.6% 39.5% 40.7% 48.1% 38.1% 7% 46.6% -5% 38% 39% 39.5% 6% 45% 43% 45.1% -11% 36% 40% 40% -1% 41% 41% 40.7% 40.7% 6% 48% 44% 48.1% 38.1% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 148415 (58.5%) 100231 (39.5%) 5090 (2.0%) 253736 #REF! #REF! 41.1% R
  Indiana 7 Julia Carson 1996 59% 53% D D 61% 57% 57% Competitive 52% Competitive 52.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 55% 53% 53% 2% 3 51.6% 54.4% 52.1% 52.1% 60.1% 3% 51.6% -4% 56% 54% 54.4% -3% 56% 55% 55.4% -1% 54% 53% 53% -4% 56% 52% 52.1% 52.1% -4% 55% 52% 52.1% 60.1% -4% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 84362 (42.6%) 109800 (55.5%) 3795 (1.9%) 197957 #REF! #REF! 57.1% D
  Indiana 8 John Hostettler 1994 53% 51% R R 43% 43% 43% Competitive 50% Competitive 49.7%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 5.0 48% 49% 49% 0% 3 48.8% 46.9% 49.7% 49.7% 40.3% 2% 48.8% 5% 47% 45% 46.9% 5% 46% 45% 46.4% 1% 49% 48% 49% 5% 50% 45% 49.7% 49.7% 5% 50% 45% 49.7% 40.3% 1% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 144848 (56.5%) 106850 (41.7%) 4808 (1.9%) 256506 #REF! #REF! 43.3% R
  Indiana 9 Baron Hill 1998 54% 51% D D 42% 44% 44% Vulnerable 47% Vulnerable 46.6%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 56% 51% 51% 3% 3 49.1% 46.1% 46.1% 46.6% 46.6% 2% 49.1% 8% 46% 49% 46.1% 12% 48% 52% 47.7% -5% 53% 51% 51% 8% 46% 50% 46.1% 46.1% 8% 47% 50% 46.6% 46.6% 2% 0% D-Vulnerable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 142694 (56.3%) 106417 (42.0%) 4288 (1.7%) 253399 #REF! #REF! 43.6% R
  Iowa 1 Jim Nussle 1990 55% 57% R R 53% 54% 54% Competitive 49% Competitive 50.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 7.0 46% 43% 46% 1% 3 50.0% 50.2% 50.5% 50.5% 50.8% 0% 50.0% -11% 46% 50% 50.2% -8% 48% 51% 51.1% -3% 43% 44% 44% -10% 45% 50% 50.5% 50.5% -8% 47% 51% 50.5% 50.8% 1% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 116588 (44.8%) 135856 (52.2%) 7737 (3.0%) 260181 #REF! #REF! 53.8% D
  Iowa 2 Jim Leach 1976 62% 52% R R 55% 55% 55% Competitive 48% Competitive 51.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 14.0 38% 48% 48% 2% 3 50.0% 52.4% 52.4% 51.9% 51.7% 0% 50.0% -7% 50% 52% 52.4% -17% 43% 49% 49.2% 10% 48% 45% 48% -7% 49% 52% 52.4% 52.4% -7% 49% 52% 51.9% 51.7% 0% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 113255 (42.5%) 141487 (53.1%) 11581 (4.3%) 266323 #REF! #REF! 54.7% D
  Iowa 3 Leonard Boswell 1996 63% 53% D D 49% 51% 51% Competitive 52% Competitive 51.7%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 64% 53% 53% 2% 3 50.0% 51.5% 51.5% 51.7% 53.6% 0% 50.0% 3% 52% 52% 51.5% 14% 55% 60% 55.1% -11% 57% 53% 53% 3% 52% 52% 51.5% 51.5% 3% 52% 52% 51.7% 53.6% 1% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 131319 (48.4%) 132890 (49.0%) 7226 (2.7%) 271435 #REF! #REF! 50.6% C
  Iowa 4 Tom Latham 1994 69% 55% R R 44% 50% 50% Competitive 52% Competitive 47.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 5.0 37% 45% 45% 2% 3 50.0% 48.2% 48.2% 47.9% 46.6% 0% 50.0% -4% 47% 48% 48.2% -12% 41% 46% 45.5% 8% 45% 43% 45% -4% 46% 48% 48.2% 48.2% -4% 46% 48% 47.9% 46.6% 6% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 131391 (48.8%) 129280 (48.0%) 8506 (3.2%) 269177 #REF! #REF! 49.6% C
  Iowa 5 Steve King 2002 61% 62% R R 44% 41% 41% R 60% Comfortable 40.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 36% 38% 38% 10% 1 46.9% 40.2% 40.2% 40.0% 38.4% 6% 46.9% -4% 39% 40% 40.2% -5% 38% 40% 39.8% 1% 38% 37% 38% -4% 39% 40% 40.2% 40.2% -4% 39% 40% 40.0% 38.4% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 141820 (57.1%) 99004 (39.8%) 7623 (3.1%) 248447 #REF! #REF! 41.4% R
U Kansas 1 Jerry Moran 1996 89% 91% R R 30% 30% 30% R 77% Landslide 22.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 11% 9% 11% 27% 3 35.8% 23.2% 24.0% 22.7% 27.3% 28% 35.8% -21% 16% 23% 23.2% -19% 18% 24% 24.0% -2% 9% 10% 10% -21% 11% 23% 23.5% 24.0% -19% 12% 23% 22.7% 27.3% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 177857 (66.7%) 76448 (28.7%) 12514 (4.7%) 266819 #REF! #REF! 30.3% R
  Kansas 2 Jim Ryun 1996 67% 60% R R 43% 42% 42% R 59% Comfortable 41.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 32% 40% 40% 9% 3 47.9% 41.5% 41.5% 41.3% 39.4% 4% 47.9% -3% 40% 41% 41.5% -10% 36% 39% 39.1% 7% 40% 37% 40% -3% 41% 41% 41.5% 41.5% -3% 41% 41% 41.3% 39.4% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 144721 (54.1%) 109133 (40.8%) 13723 (5.1%) 267577 #REF! #REF! 42.4% R
  Kansas 3 Dennis Moore 1998 50% 50% D D 44% 44% 44% Vulnerable 46% Vulnerable 46.5%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 50% 50% 50% 4% 3 49.5% 46.0% 46.0% 46.5% 47.0% 1% 49.5% 6% 46% 48% 46.0% 6% 46% 48% 46.1% 0% 50% 50% 50% 6% 46% 49% 46.0% 46.0% 6% 46% 49% 46.5% 47.0% 0% 0% D-Vulnerable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 152832 (52.9%) 122463 (42.4%) 13452 (4.7%) 288747 #REF! #REF! 44.0% R
  Kansas 4 Todd Tiahrt 1994 54% 61% R R 39% 38% 38% R 54% Tight 46.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 5.0 45% 39% 45% 4% 3 43.7% 39.0% 42.3% 46.3% 35.2% 13% 43.7% 1% 39% 39% 39.0% 7% 43% 41% 42.9% -6% 39% 41% 41% 3% 42% 39% 42.3% 42.3% 7% 46% 41% 46.3% 35.2% 0% 0% R-Tight 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 146921 (59.0%) 91232 (36.6%) 10918 (4.4%) 249071 #REF! #REF! 38.2% R
  Kentucky 1 Edward Whitfield 1994 58% 65% R R 43% 42% 42% R 58% Comfortable 41.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 41% 35% 41% 8% 3 47.2% 39.4% 40.1% 41.5% 38.7% 6% 47.2% -7% 37% 39% 39.4% -1% 41% 42% 41.5% -6% 35% 37% 37% -5% 38% 40% 40.1% 40.1% -1% 42% 42% 41.5% 38.7% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 147486 (58.3%) 101551 (40.1%) 3961 (1.6%) 252998 #REF! #REF! 41.7% R
  Kentucky 2 Ron Lewis 1994 68% 70% R R 38% 38% 38% R 64% Landslide 36.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 33% 30% 33% 14% 3 43.6% 35.6% 35.8% 36.0% 35.1% 13% 43.6% -8% 33% 36% 35.6% -5% 35% 36% 36.4% -2% 30% 31% 31% -7% 32% 36% 35.8% 35.8% -5% 34% 36% 36.0% 35.1% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 152236 (61.7%) 90086 (36.5%) 4288 (1.7%) 246610 #REF! #REF! 38.1% R
  Kentucky 3 Anne Northup 1996 53% 52% R R 53% 52% 52% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 46% 48% 48% 0% 3 50.0% 50.7% 50.7% 50.5% 48.9% 0% 50.0% -3% 50% 51% 50.7% -6% 48% 50% 50.0% 2% 48% 48% 48% -3% 49% 51% 50.7% 50.7% -3% 49% 50% 50.5% 48.9% -1% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 134234 (47.7%) 141337 (50.3%) 5628 (2.0%) 281199 #REF! #REF! 51.9% C
O Kentucky 4 Open (Kenneth Lucas) 1998 1 54% 51% D D 39% 38% 38% Vulnerable 44% Vulnerable 44.0%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Change Landslide 5% 50% 3.0 54% 51% 51% 6% 0 44.0% 42.6% 42.6% 43.5% 41.5% 12% 44.0% 13% 43% 47% 42.6% 16% 44% 49% 43.7% -3% 52% 51% 51% 13% 43% 50% 42.6% 42.6% 13% 44% 50% 43.5% 41.5% 0% 0% D-Vulnerable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 152856 (60.7%) 92768 (36.9%) 6060 (2.4%) 251684 #REF! #REF! 38.5% R
UU Kentucky 5 Harold Rogers 1980 74% 78% R R 44% 43% 43% R 63% Landslide 36.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.0 26% 22% 26% 13% 3 49.0% 36.3% 36.8% 36.6% 40.5% 2% 49.0% -22% 29% 36% 36.3% -17% 32% 38% 37.8% -5% 22% 23% 23% -20% 24% 37% 36.8% 36.8% -17% 27% 37% 36.6% 40.5% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 131494 (56.7%) 97104 (41.9%) 3423 (1.5%) 232021 #REF! #REF! 43.5% R
V Kentucky 6 Ben Chandler 2004 53% 55% R D 44% 43% 43% Competitive 47% Competitive 47.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 0.0 47% 55% 47% 3% 1 48.9% 47.2% 46.3% 44.8% 46.4% 2% 48.9% 12% 47% 51% 47.2% 4% 45% 46% 44.5% 8% 52% 55% 52% 9% 46% 51% 46.3% 46.3% 4% 45% 46% 44.8% 46.4% 0% 0% D-Competitive 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 145606 (55.5%) 109602 (41.8%) 7282 (2.8%) 262490 #REF! #REF! 43.4% R
O Louisiana 1 Open (David Vitter) 1999 1 84% 97% R R 34% 33% 33% R 62% Landslide 38.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 2.5 16% 3% 16% 12% 0 38.2% 23.0% 27.0% 25.9% 29.7% 24% 38.2% -29% 13% 23% 23.0% -17% 21% 27% 27.0% -12% 3% 7% 7% -25% 8% 24% 24.3% 27.0% -17% 17% 26% 25.9% 29.7% 0% 0% R-Landslide 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 179196 (66.5%) 83779 (31.1%) 6650 (2.5%) 269625 #REF! #REF! 32.7% R
  Louisiana 2 William Jefferson 1990 100% 86% D D 79% 77% 77% D 81% Landslide 81.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 98% 86% 86% 31% 3 71.8% 80.3% 84.1% 81.0% 80.3% 44% 71.8% 9% 80% 83% 80.3% 21% 84% 91% 84.1% -11% 90% 86% 86% 9% 80% 85% 80.3% 84.1% 9% 81% 85% 81.0% 80.3% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 48726 (22.3%) 165587 (75.7%) 4457 (2.0%) 218770 #REF! #REF! 77.3% D
O Louisiana 3 Open (Billy Tauzin) 1980 1 78% 87% R R 47% 47% 47% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 12.0 22% 13% 22% 0% 0 50.0% 35.6% 38.5% 36.7% 43.6% 0% 50.0% -33% 24% 36% 35.6% -25% 30% 38% 38.5% -9% 13% 16% 16% -30% 17% 37% 36.5% 38.5% -25% 23% 37% 36.7% 43.6% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 133749 (52.0%) 115734 (45.0%) 7967 (3.1%) 257450 #REF! #REF! 46.6% R
U Louisiana 4 Jim McCrery 1988 71% 72% R R 46% 45% 45% R 62% Landslide 38.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 28% 28% 28% 12% 3 50.0% 39.3% 39.3% 38.1% 41.6% 0% 50.0% -16% 34% 39% 39.3% -16% 34% 39% 39.3% 0% 28% 28% 28% -16% 29% 39% 39.3% 39.3% -16% 29% 38% 38.1% 41.6% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 129908 (54.7%) 102228 (43.0%) 5466 (2.3%) 237602 #REF! #REF! 44.6% R
  Louisiana 5 Rodney Alexander 2002 69% 50% R R 40% 41% 41% R 53% Tight 47.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 32% 50% 50% 3% 1 47.0% 47.0% 50.7% 50.7% 38.5% 6% 47.0% 8% 47% 44% 47.0% -9% 35% 38% 38.3% 18% 50% 44% 50% 8% 51% 44% 50.7% 50.7% 8% 51% 45% 50.7% 38.5% 1% 0% R-Tight 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 143628 (57.1%) 100287 (39.9%) 7706 (3.1%) 251621 #REF! #REF! 41.5% R
  Louisiana 6 Richard Baker 1986 68% 84% R R 46% 45% 45% R 61% Landslide 38.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 30% 16% 30% 11% 3 50.0% 35.1% 36.7% 38.9% 41.6% 0% 50.0% -29% 25% 35% 35.1% -14% 35% 40% 39.9% -14% 16% 21% 21% -24% 22% 37% 36.7% 36.7% -14% 31% 39% 38.9% 41.6% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 142239 (54.8%) 111602 (43.0%) 5716 (2.2%) 259557 #REF! #REF! 44.6% R
O Louisiana 7 Open (Chris John) 1996 1 83% 87% D D 44% 43% 43% Competitive 49% Competitive 49.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 83% 87% 83% 1% 0 49.0% 57.8% 56.6% 59.4% 46.5% 2% 49.0% 43% 58% 73% 57.8% 40% 57% 70% 56.6% 4% 86% 87% 86% 42% 57% 85% 57.4% 56.6% 40% 59% 82% 59.4% 46.5% 0% 0% D-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 141378 (55.2%) 107190 (41.9%) 7357 (2.9%) 255925 #REF! #REF! 43.5% R
  Maine 1 Tom Allen 1996 60% 64% D D 53% 52% 52% D 55% Comfortable 55.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 59% 64% 59% 5% 3 50.0% 56.0% 55.5% 55.0% 55.2% 0% 50.0% 12% 56% 60% 56.0% 7% 55% 57% 54.5% 4% 62% 64% 62% 10% 55% 61% 55.5% 55.5% 7% 55% 58% 55.0% 55.2% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 148618 (42.6%) 176293 (50.6%) 23741 (6.8%) 348652 52.2% C
  Maine 2 Michael Michaud 2002 73% 52% D D 49% 49% 49% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 74% 52% 52% 0% 1 50.0% 50.1% 50.1% 50.3% 52.0% 0% 50.0% 3% 50% 51% 50.1% 25% 57% 66% 57.2% -22% 59% 52% 52% 3% 50% 51% 50.1% 50.1% 3% 50% 51% 50.3% 52.0% 0% 0% D-Competitive 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 137998 (45.6%) 143658 (47.4%) 21179 (7.0%) 302835 49.0% C
  Maryland 1 Wayne Gilchrest 1990 64% 77% R R 46% 41% 41% R 63% Landslide 37.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 31% 23% 31% 13% 3 46.9% 35.4% 36.3% 37.2% 38.4% 6% 46.9% -18% 29% 35% 35.4% -11% 34% 38% 38.0% -8% 23% 26% 26% -16% 27% 36% 36.3% 36.3% -11% 32% 37% 37.2% 38.4% -5% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 160402 (57.2%) 111807 (39.8%) 8424 (3.0%) 280633 #REF! #REF! 41.4% R
  Maryland 2 C.A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger  2002 69% 54% R D 43% 58% 58% D 56% Comfortable 55.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 47% 54% 47% 6% 1 52.9% 55.7% 50.7% 45.6% 61.4% 6% 52.9% -4% 57% 56% 55.7% -12% 54% 50% 50.5% 8% 52% 54% 52% -7% 56% 51% 50.7% 50.7% -12% 54% 46% 45.6% 61.4% 15% 0% D-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 91677 (40.8%) 127510 (56.8%) 5285 (2.4%) 224472 #REF! #REF! 58.4% D
  Maryland 3 Benjamin Cardin 1986 76% 66% D D 65% 57% 57% D 60% Landslide 60.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 68% 66% 66% 10% 3 51.4% 59.9% 59.9% 60.5% 59.9% 3% 51.4% 9% 60% 63% 59.9% 11% 61% 64% 60.6% -2% 67% 66% 66% 9% 60% 65% 59.9% 59.9% 9% 60% 65% 60.5% 59.9% -8% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 107481 (41.4%) 143685 (55.3%) 8456 (3.3%) 259622 #REF! #REF! 56.9% D
  Maryland 4 Albert Wynn 1992 87% 79% D D 86% 78% 78% D 79% Landslide 78.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 80% 79% 79% 29% 3 72.9% 78.6% 78.6% 78.7% 81.4% 46% 72.9% 1% 79% 79% 78.6% 1% 79% 79% 78.8% -1% 79% 79% 79% 1% 79% 78% 78.6% 78.6% 1% 79% 78% 78.7% 81.4% -8% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 49202 (21.4%) 176780 (76.8%) 4098 (1.8%) 230080 #REF! #REF! 78.4% D
  Maryland 5 Steny Hoyer 1981 65% 69% D D 57% 58% 58% D 61% Landslide 61.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.5 66% 69% 66% 11% 3 52.6% 61.9% 61.5% 61.3% 61.1% 5% 52.6% 11% 62% 66% 61.9% 8% 61% 63% 60.7% 3% 68% 69% 68% 10% 61% 67% 61.5% 61.5% 8% 61% 65% 61.3% 61.1% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 101056 (41.1%) 139068 (56.5%) 5871 (2.4%) 245995 #REF! #REF! 58.1% D
  Maryland 6 Roscoe Bartlett 1992 61% 66% R R 40% 38% 38% R 63% Landslide 37.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 37% 34% 37% 13% 3 43.2% 36.5% 36.8% 37.3% 34.7% 14% 43.2% -4% 35% 36% 36.5% -1% 37% 37% 37.4% -3% 34% 35% 35% -3% 36% 37% 36.8% 36.8% -1% 38% 37% 37.3% 34.7% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 160263 (60.8%) 95282 (36.1%) 8029 (3.0%) 263574 #REF! #REF! 37.7% R
  Maryland 7 Elijah Cummings 1996 87% 74% D D 86% 74% 74% D 73% Landslide 72.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 76% 74% 74% 23% 3 68.6% 73.8% 72.6% 72.6% 77.1% 37% 68.6% -1% 74% 74% 73.8% 2% 75% 75% 74.7% -2% 74% 74% 74% -1% 74% 73% 72.6% 72.6% -1% 74% 73% 72.6% 77.1% -11% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 57262 (25.0%) 166410 (72.5%) 5766 (2.5%) 229438 #REF! #REF! 74.1% D
  Maryland 8 Chris Van Hollen 2002 52% 52% R D 62% 67% 67% D 57% Comfortable 56.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 53% 52% 52% 7% 1 61.6% 56.8% 50.8% 50.8% 70.1% 23% 61.6% -15% 62% 57% 56.8% -14% 62% 58% 57.6% -1% 52% 52% 52% -15% 62% 51% 50.8% 50.8% -15% 61% 51% 50.8% 70.1% 5% 0% D-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 84088 (31.0%) 177475 (65.5%) 9382 (3.5%) 270945 #REF! #REF! 67.1% D
U Massachusetts 1 John Olver 1991 68% 68% D D 59% 58% 58% D 62% Landslide 61.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.5 68% 68% 68% 12% 3 52.5% 61.2% 61.2% 61.8% 61.0% 5% 52.5% 10% 61% 64% 61.2% 10% 61% 64% 61.2% 0% 68% 68% 68% 10% 61% 67% 61.2% 61.2% 10% 62% 67% 61.8% 61.0% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 88690 (33.2%) 150418 (56.4%) 27700 (10.4%) 266808 #REF! #REF! 58.0% D
UU Massachusetts 2 Richard Neal 1988 99% 100% D D 60% 59% 59% D 75% Landslide 75.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 99% 100% 99% 25% 3 54.0% 72.8% 72.4% 75.2% 62.5% 8% 54.0% 41% 73% 87% 72.8% 39% 72% 86% 72.4% 1% ### 100% 100% 40% 73% 99% 72.7% 72.4% 39% 75% 98% 75.2% 62.5% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 89775 (34.6%) 150148 (57.9%) 19588 (7.5%) 259511 #REF! #REF! 59.5% D
  Massachusetts 3 Jim McGovern 1996 99% 100% D D 60% 60% 60% D 76% Landslide 75.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 99% 100% 99% 26% 3 54.7% 73.3% 73.2% 75.9% 63.2% 9% 54.7% 40% 73% 87% 73.3% 39% 73% 86% 73.2% 1% ### 100% 100% 40% 73% 99% 73.3% 73.2% 39% 76% 98% 75.9% 63.2% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 90375 (34.6%) 153044 (58.6%) 17711 (6.8%) 261130 #REF! #REF! 60.2% D
UU Massachusetts 4 Barney Frank 1980 75% 100% D D 65% 66% 66% D 70% Landslide 70.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.0 77% 100% 77% 20% 3 60.8% 77.4% 69.7% 70.4% 69.3% 22% 60.8% 34% 77% 89% 77.4% 10% 70% 73% 69.7% 23% 92% 100% 92% 26% 75% 91% 74.9% 69.7% 10% 70% 76% 70.4% 69.3% 2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 79201 (28.7%) 178354 (64.7%) 18067 (6.6%) 275622 #REF! #REF! 66.3% D
  Massachusetts 5 Martin Meehan 1992 98% 60% D D 58% 58% 58% D 59% Comfortable 58.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 99% 60% 60% 9% 3 52.6% 58.8% 58.8% 58.9% 61.1% 5% 52.6% 2% 59% 60% 58.8% 40% 71% 85% 71.4% -38% 73% 60% 60% 2% 59% 59% 58.8% 58.8% 2% 59% 59% 58.9% 61.1% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 93406 (36.3%) 145277 (56.5%) 18433 (7.2%) 257116 #REF! #REF! 58.1% D
  Massachusetts 6 John Tierney 1996 71% 68% D D 59% 59% 59% D 63% Landslide 62.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 71% 68% 68% 13% 3 53.5% 62.1% 62.1% 62.7% 62.0% 7% 53.5% 9% 62% 65% 62.1% 12% 63% 67% 63.1% -3% 69% 68% 68% 9% 62% 67% 62.1% 62.1% 9% 63% 67% 62.7% 62.0% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 107415 (35.7%) 172840 (57.4%) 20760 (6.9%) 301015 #REF! #REF! 59.0% D
  Massachusetts 7 Edward Markey 1976 99% 100% D D 65% 65% 65% D 79% Landslide 79.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 14.0 100% 100% 100% 29% 3 59.9% 76.8% 76.7% 79.1% 68.4% 20% 59.9% 35% 77% 89% 76.8% 34% 77% 88% 76.7% 0% ### 100% 100% 35% 77% 99% 76.8% 76.7% 34% 79% 99% 79.1% 68.4% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 82250 (28.9%) 181417 (63.8%) 20891 (7.3%) 284558 #REF! #REF! 65.4% D
UU Massachusetts 8 Michael Capuano 1998 99% 100% D D 74% 75% 75% D 85% Landslide 84.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 100% 100% 100% 35% 3 69.3% 83.1% 83.2% 84.9% 77.8% 39% 69.3% 25% 83% 92% 83.1% 26% 83% 92% 83.2% 0% ### 100% 100% 25% 83% 99% 83.1% 83.2% 25% 85% 99% 84.9% 77.8% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 28903 (14.8%) 142500 (73.2%) 23374 (12.0%) 194777 #REF! #REF! 74.8% D
UU Massachusetts 9 Stephen Lynch 2001 61% 100% D D 65% 61% 61% D 74% Landslide 74.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 58% 100% 58% 24% 1 55.8% 74.1% 58.9% 56.7% 64.3% 12% 55.8% 39% 74% 87% 74.1% -4% 60% 59% 58.9% 42% 86% 100% 86% 25% 69% 85% 69.5% 58.9% -4% 60% 57% 56.7% 64.3% -3% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-uncont 1 93529 (33.4%) 167059 (59.7%) 19051 (6.8%) 279639 #REF! #REF! 61.3% D
  Massachusetts 10 Bill Delahunt 1996 74% 69% D D 57% 56% 56% D 61% Landslide 61.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 73% 69% 69% 11% 3 50.4% 60.3% 60.3% 61.2% 58.9% 1% 50.4% 13% 60% 65% 60.3% 18% 62% 68% 61.7% -4% 71% 69% 69% 13% 60% 68% 60.3% 60.3% 13% 61% 68% 61.2% 58.9% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 124956 (38.7%) 175426 (54.3%) 22722 (7.0%) 323104 #REF! #REF! 55.9% D
  Michigan 1 Bart Stupak 1992 58% 68% D D 45% 47% 47% Competitive 52% Competitive 52.3%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 61% 68% 61% 2% 3 50.0% 53.7% 52.9% 52.3% 49.8% 0% 50.0% 21% 54% 61% 53.7% 14% 51% 56% 51.4% 7% 65% 68% 65% 19% 53% 64% 52.9% 52.9% 14% 52% 60% 52.3% 49.8% 2% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 154772 (51.7%) 135503 (45.2%) 9371 (3.1%) 299646 #REF! #REF! 46.8% R
  Michigan 2 Peter Hoekstra 1992 64% 70% R R 40% 40% 40% R 62% Landslide 38.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 36% 30% 36% 12% 3 45.5% 36.6% 37.3% 38.3% 37.0% 9% 45.5% -10% 33% 37% 36.6% -4% 37% 39% 38.6% -6% 30% 32% 32% -8% 33% 37% 37.3% 37.3% -4% 37% 38% 38.3% 37.0% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 172428 (59.3%) 111739 (38.4%) 6550 (2.3%) 290717 #REF! #REF! 40.0% R
  Michigan 3 Vern Ehlers 1993 65% 70% R R 40% 40% 40% R 62% Landslide 37.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.5 35% 30% 35% 12% 3 45.5% 36.7% 37.2% 37.8% 37.0% 9% 45.5% -10% 33% 37% 36.7% -5% 36% 38% 38.2% -5% 30% 32% 32% -8% 33% 37% 37.2% 37.2% -5% 36% 38% 37.8% 37.0% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 170622 (59.5%) 110121 (38.4%) 5942 (2.1%) 286685 #REF! #REF! 40.0% R
  Michigan 4 Dave Camp 1990 68% 68% R R 46% 45% 45% R 60% Landslide 40.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 31% 32% 32% 10% 3 50.0% 40.9% 40.9% 40.0% 42.4% 0% 50.0% -14% 36% 41% 40.9% -14% 36% 41% 40.7% 1% 32% 32% 32% -14% 33% 41% 40.9% 40.9% -14% 33% 40% 40.0% 42.4% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 154539 (53.6%) 126282 (43.8%) 7468 (2.6%) 288289 #REF! #REF! 45.4% R
  Michigan 5 Dale Kildee 1976 61% 92% D D 55% 62% 62% D 65% Landslide 64.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 14.0 69% 92% 69% 15% 3 57.0% 72.1% 64.5% 64.9% 65.5% 14% 57.0% 29% 72% 82% 72.1% 6% 64% 67% 64.5% 23% 84% 92% 84% 21% 70% 83% 69.6% 64.5% 6% 65% 68% 64.9% 65.5% 7% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 106445 (37.1%) 174788 (60.9%) 5811 (2.0%) 287044 #REF! #REF! 62.5% D
  Michigan 6 Fred Upton 1986 68% 69% R R 47% 47% 47% R 59% Comfortable 40.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 9.0 31% 31% 31% 9% 3 50.0% 41.4% 41.5% 40.6% 43.6% 0% 50.0% -16% 36% 41% 41.4% -15% 36% 42% 41.6% -1% 31% 31% 31% -16% 32% 41% 41.5% 41.5% -15% 32% 41% 40.6% 43.6% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 138658 (52.2%) 119740 (45.0%) 7413 (2.8%) 265811 #REF! #REF! 46.6% R
O Michigan 7 Open (Nick Smith) 1992 1 61% 60% R R 48% 48% 48% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 39% 40% 40% 0% 0 50.0% 45.3% 45.3% 44.8% 44.8% 0% 50.0% -7% 43% 45% 45.3% -9% 42% 45% 44.9% 1% 40% 40% 40% -7% 41% 45% 45.3% 45.3% -7% 41% 45% 44.8% 44.8% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 141647 (51.4%) 127344 (46.2%) 6682 (2.4%) 275673 #REF! #REF! 47.8% C
  Michigan 8 Mike Rogers 2000 49% 68% R R 52% 48% 48% R 55% Comfortable 44.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 48% 32% 48% 5% 2 50.0% 42.9% 44.6% 48.1% 45.2% 0% 50.0% -16% 37% 43% 42.9% 0% 48% 48% 48.1% -16% 32% 37% 37% -11% 38% 45% 44.6% 44.6% 0% 49% 48% 48.1% 45.2% -3% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 153798 (50.6%) 141770 (46.6%) 8426 (2.8%) 303994 #REF! #REF! 48.2% C
  Michigan 9 Joe Knollenberg 1992 56% 58% R R 52% 49% 49% R 54% Tight 46.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 6.0 41% 42% 42% 4% 3 50.0% 46.5% 46.5% 46.0% 45.8% 0% 50.0% -7% 44% 47% 46.5% -8% 44% 46% 46.3% 1% 42% 42% 42% -7% 43% 47% 46.5% 46.5% -7% 43% 46% 46.0% 45.8% -3% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 164149 (51.0%) 151996 (47.2%) 5987 (1.9%) 322132 #REF! #REF! 48.8% C
  Michigan 10 Candice Miller 2002 64% 63% D R 50% 46% 46% R 57% Comfortable 43.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 60% 37% 60% 7% 1 50.0% 43.0% 45.6% 61.1% 43.1% 0% 50.0% -9% 40% 43% 43.0% 14% 56% 51% 55.5% -23% 37% 44% 44% -2% 45% 46% 45.6% 45.6% 14% 61% 52% 61.1% 43.1% -4% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 152780 (53.3%) 127640 (44.5%) 6242 (2.2%) 286662 #REF! #REF! 46.1% R
  Michigan 11 Thaddeus McCotter 2002 56% 57% R R 52% 49% 49% R 53% Tight 46.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 41% 43% 43% 3% 1 50.0% 46.7% 46.7% 46.3% 45.6% 0% 50.0% -6% 45% 47% 46.7% -8% 43% 46% 46.1% 2% 43% 42% 43% -6% 44% 47% 46.7% 46.7% -6% 44% 46% 46.3% 45.6% -3% 0% R-Tight 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 150692 (51.0%) 138735 (47.0%) 6022 (2.0%) 295449 #REF! #REF! 48.6% C
  Michigan 12 Sander Levin 1982 64% 68% D D 56% 63% 63% D 65% Landslide 64.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 71% 68% 68% 15% 3 57.0% 64.4% 64.4% 64.8% 65.5% 14% 57.0% 6% 64% 66% 64.4% 9% 65% 68% 65.3% -3% 69% 68% 68% 6% 64% 67% 64.4% 64.4% 6% 65% 67% 64.8% 65.5% 7% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 106628 (37.0%) 175524 (60.9%) 5940 (2.1%) 288092 #REF! #REF! 62.5% D
  Michigan 13 Carolyn Kilpatrick 1996 89% 92% D D 90% 82% 82% D 80% Landslide 79.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 81% 92% 81% 30% 3 76.5% 85.1% 81.1% 79.7% 85.0% 53% 76.5% 10% 85% 88% 85.1% -1% 82% 81% 81.1% 11% 88% 92% 88% 6% 84% 87% 84.0% 81.1% -1% 81% 80% 79.7% 85.0% -8% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-uncont 1 39024 (18.7%) 167830 (80.4%) 1975 (0.9%) 208829 #REF! #REF! 82.0% D
  Michigan 14 John Conyers 1964 89% 83% D D 91% 83% 83% D 80% Landslide 79.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 20.0 81% 83% 81% 30% 3 77.0% 82.8% 81.4% 79.8% 85.5% 54% 77.0% 1% 83% 83% 82.8% -2% 82% 81% 81.4% 2% 82% 83% 82% 0% 82% 81% 81.4% 81.4% -2% 82% 80% 79.8% 85.5% -8% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 44345 (18.1%) 198687 (80.9%) 2449 (1.0%) 245481 #REF! #REF! 82.5% D
  Michigan 15 John Dingell 1955 71% 72% D D 55% 61% 61% D 66% Landslide 65.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 24.5 77% 72% 72% 16% 3 55.9% 65.0% 65.0% 65.7% 64.4% 12% 55.9% 11% 65% 69% 65.0% 16% 67% 72% 66.7% -5% 74% 72% 72% 11% 65% 71% 65.0% 65.0% 11% 66% 71% 65.7% 64.4% 6% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 101607 (37.5%) 161913 (59.8%) 7086 (2.6%) 270606 #REF! #REF! 61.4% D
  Minnesota 1 Gil Gutknecht 1994 56% 62% R R 48% 46% 46% R 55% Comfortable 44.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 42% 38% 42% 5% 3 50.0% 43.8% 44.2% 44.5% 43.4% 0% 50.0% -8% 41% 44% 43.8% -5% 43% 45% 44.9% -3% 38% 40% 40% -7% 41% 44% 44.2% 44.2% -5% 43% 45% 44.5% 43.4% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 146212 (49.3%) 133078 (44.8%) 17501 (5.9%) 296791 #REF! #REF! 46.4% R
  Minnesota 2 John Kline 2002 50% 53% D R 49% 46% 46% R 54% Tight 46.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 47% 47% 47% 4% 1 50.0% 46.4% 47.7% 47.7% 43.0% 0% 50.0% 1% 46% 46% 46.4% 1% 46% 46% 46.3% 0% 47% 47% 47% 1% 48% 46% 47.7% 47.7% 1% 48% 46% 47.7% 43.0% -3% 0% R-Tight 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 150366 (50.7%) 131414 (44.4%) 14526 (4.9%) 296306 #REF! #REF! 46.0% R
  Minnesota 3 Jim Ramstad 1990 68% 72% R R 47% 48% 48% R 58% Comfortable 41.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 7.0 33% 28% 33% 8% 3 50.0% 41.1% 41.6% 41.6% 44.6% 0% 50.0% -20% 34% 41% 41.1% -15% 38% 43% 42.6% -5% 28% 29% 29% -18% 30% 42% 41.6% 41.6% -15% 34% 42% 41.6% 44.6% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 161999 (49.9%) 149277 (46.0%) 13483 (4.2%) 324759 #REF! #REF! 47.6% C
  Minnesota 4 Betty McCollum 2000 48% 62% D D 59% 58% 58% D 56% Comfortable 56.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 48% 62% 48% 6% 2 52.7% 59.6% 56.5% 46.7% 61.2% 5% 52.7% 4% 60% 61% 59.6% -11% 55% 51% 51.1% 15% 57% 62% 57% -1% 58% 56% 56.5% 56.5% -11% 54% 47% 46.7% 61.2% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-under23 109670 (37.2%) 166919 (56.6%) 18146 (6.2%) 294735 #REF! #REF! 58.2% D
  Minnesota 5 Martin Olav Sabo 1978 69% 67% D D 65% 64% 64% D 65% Landslide 65.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 69% 67% 67% 15% 3 58.9% 65.3% 65.3% 65.5% 67.4% 18% 58.9% 3% 65% 66% 65.3% 5% 66% 67% 65.9% -2% 68% 67% 67% 3% 65% 66% 65.3% 65.3% 3% 65% 66% 65.5% 67.4% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 85447 (28.9%) 185874 (62.8%) 24577 (8.3%) 295898 #REF! #REF! 64.4% D
  Minnesota 6 Mark Kennedy 2000 48% 57% R R 43% 44% 44% R 53% Tight 46.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 2.0 53% 43% 53% 3% 2 49.3% 43.4% 46.9% 53.7% 40.8% 1% 49.3% -1% 43% 43% 43.4% 9% 50% 47% 49.8% -10% 43% 46% 46% 2% 47% 44% 46.9% 46.9% 9% 54% 47% 53.7% 40.8% 1% 0% R-Tight 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-under23 152977 (52.4%) 123247 (42.2%) 15954 (5.5%) 292178 #REF! #REF! 43.8% R
  Minnesota 7 Collin Peterson 1990 69% 65% D D 42% 42% 42% Competitive 51% Competitive 51.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 7.0 69% 65% 65% 1% 3 47.1% 49.4% 49.4% 51.1% 44.6% 6% 47.1% 24% 49% 57% 49.4% 27% 50% 60% 50.5% -3% 66% 65% 65% 24% 49% 64% 49.4% 49.4% 24% 51% 64% 51.1% 44.6% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 155795 (53.6%) 116099 (40.0%) 18706 (6.4%) 290600 #REF! #REF! 41.6% R
  Minnesota 8 James Oberstar 1974 68% 69% D D 52% 51% 51% D 57% Comfortable 57.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 15.0 67% 69% 67% 7% 3 50.0% 56.7% 56.5% 57.3% 53.8% 0% 50.0% 18% 57% 63% 56.7% 16% 56% 62% 56.1% 2% 68% 69% 68% 17% 57% 67% 56.5% 56.5% 16% 57% 66% 57.3% 53.8% -1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 136884 (43.7%) 153962 (49.2%) 22302 (7.1%) 313148 #REF! #REF! 50.8% C
U Mississippi 1 Roger Wicker 1994 70% 71% R R 40% 41% 41% R 63% Landslide 37.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 31% 29% 31% 13% 3 46.7% 37.0% 37.3% 37.2% 38.2% 7% 46.7% -13% 33% 37% 37.0% -10% 34% 38% 37.9% -3% 29% 29% 29% -12% 30% 37% 37.3% 37.3% -10% 32% 37% 37.2% 38.2% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 146197 (58.9%) 98350 (39.6%) 3690 (1.5%) 248237 #REF! #REF! 41.2% R
U Mississippi 2 Bennie Thompson 1993 65% 55% D D 62% 58% 58% D 54% Tight 54.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 5.5 62% 55% 55% 4% 3 52.9% 56.2% 54.1% 54.1% 61.4% 6% 52.9% -3% 57% 56% 56.2% 3% 59% 60% 59.4% -6% 57% 55% 55% -3% 57% 54% 54.1% 54.1% -3% 57% 54% 54.1% 61.4% -4% 0% D-Tight 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 97979 (41.3%) 134513 (56.8%) 4464 (1.9%) 236956 #REF! #REF! 58.4% D
U Mississippi 3 Chip Pickering 1996 73% 64% R R 35% 36% 36% R 63% Landslide 37.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 28% 36% 36% 13% 3 41.8% 36.4% 37.4% 37.4% 33.3% 16% 41.8% 0% 36% 36% 36.4% -8% 31% 34% 33.7% 8% 36% 34% 36% 0% 37% 36% 37.4% 37.4% 0% 37% 36% 37.4% 33.3% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 173434 (64.3%) 93454 (34.7%) 2752 (1.0%) 269640 #REF! #REF! 36.3% R
  Mississippi 4 Gene Taylor 1989 79% 75% D D 35% 35% 35% Competitive 51% Competitive 50.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 7.5 79% 75% 75% 1% 3 40.1% 48.0% 48.0% 50.8% 37.6% 20% 40.1% 41% 48% 62% 48.0% 44% 49% 64% 49.1% -3% 76% 75% 75% 41% 48% 74% 48.0% 48.0% 41% 51% 74% 50.8% 37.6% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 154997 (65.3%) 78224 (33.0%) 4152 (1.7%) 237373 #REF! #REF! 34.6% R
  Missouri 1 Wm. Lacy Clay 2000 75% 70% D D 78% 74% 74% D 69% Landslide 69.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 71% 70% 70% 19% 2 68.2% 71.3% 69.1% 69.1% 76.7% 36% 68.2% -4% 72% 71% 71.3% -3% 73% 72% 71.6% 0% 70% 70% 70% -4% 72% 69% 69.1% 69.1% -4% 72% 69% 69.1% 76.7% -5% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-under 2-cont 0 2-under23 65686 (26.0%) 182323 (72.1%) 5022 (2.0%) 253031 #REF! #REF! 73.7% D
  Missouri 2 W. Todd Akin 2000 55% 67% R R 45% 41% 41% R 61% Landslide 39.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 41% 33% 41% 11% 2 46.2% 38.1% 39.0% 41.8% 37.7% 8% 46.2% -8% 35% 38% 38.1% 0% 41% 41% 40.8% -8% 33% 35% 35% -5% 36% 39% 39.0% 39.0% 0% 42% 41% 41.8% 37.7% -4% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 179633 (58.6%) 119907 (39.1%) 6744 (2.2%) 306284 #REF! #REF! 40.7% R
O Missouri 3 Open (Richard Gephardt) 1976 1 58% 59% D D 52% 56% 56% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 14.0 58% 59% 58% 0% 0 50.0% 56.7% 56.6% 56.5% 58.5% 0% 50.0% 4% 57% 58% 56.7% 2% 56% 57% 56.3% 1% 59% 59% 59% 3% 57% 58% 56.6% 56.6% 2% 56% 57% 56.5% 58.5% 0% 0% D-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 112460 (43.0%) 140954 (53.9%) 7972 (3.0%) 261386 #REF! #REF! 55.5% D
  Missouri 4 Ike Skelton 1976 67% 68% D D 41% 41% 41% Competitive 52% Competitive 51.6%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 14.0 67% 68% 67% 2% 3 46.6% 49.8% 49.8% 51.6% 44.1% 7% 46.6% 27% 50% 59% 49.8% 26% 50% 59% 49.7% 0% 68% 68% 68% 26% 50% 67% 49.8% 49.8% 26% 52% 66% 51.6% 44.1% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 147694 (58.2%) 100171 (39.5%) 6024 (2.4%) 253889 #REF! #REF! 41.1% R
O Missouri 5 Open (Karen McCarthy) 1994 1 69% 66% D D 63% 62% 62% D 56% Comfortable 56.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Change 5% 50% 5.0 69% 66% 66% 6% 0 56.5% 63.3% 63.3% 63.5% 65.0% 13% 56.5% 4% 63% 65% 63.3% 7% 64% 67% 64.2% -3% 67% 66% 66% 4% 63% 65% 63.3% 63.3% 4% 64% 65% 63.5% 65.0% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 91626 (37.0%) 149621 (60.4%) 6625 (2.7%) 247872 #REF! #REF! 62.0% D
  Missouri 6 Sam Graves 2000 51% 63% R R 45% 46% 46% R 56% Comfortable 44.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 50% 37% 50% 6% 2 50.0% 42.9% 44.3% 50.7% 42.8% 0% 50.0% -9% 40% 43% 42.9% 4% 48% 47% 48.4% -13% 37% 41% 41% -5% 42% 44% 44.3% 44.3% 4% 51% 47% 50.7% 42.8% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 143954 (53.1%) 119861 (44.2%) 7380 (2.7%) 271195 #REF! #REF! 45.8% R
  Missouri 7 Roy Blunt 1996 74% 74% R R 37% 37% 37% R 67% Landslide 32.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 27% 26% 27% 17% 3 42.6% 33.3% 33.4% 32.9% 34.1% 15% 42.6% -11% 29% 33% 33.3% -10% 30% 34% 33.6% -1% 26% 26% 26% -11% 27% 33% 33.4% 33.4% -10% 28% 33% 32.9% 34.1% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 153453 (62.1%) 87663 (35.5%) 6124 (2.5%) 247240 #REF! #REF! 37.1% R
  Missouri 8 Jo Ann Emerson 1996 69% 72% R R 39% 40% 40% R 63% Landslide 36.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 31% 28% 31% 13% 3 45.6% 36.2% 36.5% 36.6% 37.1% 9% 45.6% -12% 32% 36% 36.2% -9% 34% 37% 37.2% -3% 28% 29% 29% -11% 30% 37% 36.5% 36.5% -9% 32% 37% 36.6% 37.1% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 143511 (59.2%) 93244 (38.5%) 5635 (2.3%) 242390 #REF! #REF! 40.1% R
  Missouri 9 Kenny Hulshof 1996 59% 68% R R 44% 44% 44% R 57% Comfortable 42.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 40% 32% 40% 7% 3 49.5% 39.9% 40.9% 42.6% 41.0% 1% 49.5% -12% 36% 40% 39.9% -3% 42% 43% 42.8% -9% 32% 35% 35% -9% 36% 41% 40.9% 40.9% -3% 41% 43% 42.6% 41.0% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 145604 (55.0%) 112239 (42.4%) 7093 (2.7%) 264936 #REF! #REF! 44.0% R
  Montana 1 Dennis Rehberg 2000 51% 65% R R 35% 35% 35% R 59% Comfortable 40.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 48% 35% 48% 9% 2 40.5% 35.3% 40.7% 49.5% 32.0% 19% 40.5% 0% 35% 35% 35.3% 14% 44% 39% 44.0% -13% 35% 40% 40% 5% 41% 37% 40.7% 40.7% 14% 49% 40% 49.5% 32.0% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-under 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-under23 240178 (58.4%) 137126 (33.4%) 33682 (8.2%) 410986 35.0% R
O Nebraska 1 Open (Doug Bereuter) 1978 1 68% 85% R R 38% 38% 38% R 57% Comfortable 43.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Change 5% 50% 13.0 32% 15% 32% 7% 0 43.3% 30.1% 35.9% 35.5% 34.8% 13% 43.3% -23% 22% 30% 30.1% -6% 34% 36% 35.9% -18% 15% 20% 20% -17% 21% 32% 32.0% 35.9% -6% 33% 36% 35.5% 34.8% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-uncont 1 138799 (58.6%) 85634 (36.2%) 12242 (5.2%) 236675 #REF! #REF! 37.8% R
  Nebraska 2 Lee Terry 1998 66% 63% R R 40% 40% 40% R 61% Landslide 38.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 35% 37% 37% 11% 3 45.8% 39.1% 39.1% 38.8% 37.3% 8% 45.8% -4% 38% 39% 39.1% -5% 37% 38% 38.5% 2% 37% 36% 37% -4% 38% 39% 39.1% 39.1% -4% 38% 39% 38.8% 37.3% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 125973 (56.7%) 85853 (38.7%) 10183 (4.6%) 222009 #REF! #REF! 40.3% R
  Nebraska 3 Tom Osborn 2000 82% 93% R R 27% 27% 27% R 76% Landslide 24.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 18% 7% 18% 26% 2 32.4% 20.3% 24.1% 23.5% 23.9% 35% 32.4% -20% 13% 20% 20.3% -9% 21% 24% 24.1% -11% 7% 11% 11% -16% 12% 22% 21.5% 24.1% -9% 19% 23% 23.5% 23.9% 0% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-uncont 1 169090 (70.9%) 60293 (25.3%) 8952 (3.8%) 238335 #REF! #REF! 26.9% R
  Nevada 1 Shelley Berkley 1998 52% 54% D D 56% 58% 58% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.7%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 54% 54% 54% 3% 3 52.3% 55.1% 52.7% 52.7% 60.8% 5% 52.3% -4% 56% 55% 55.1% -4% 57% 55% 55.1% 0% 54% 54% 54% -4% 56% 53% 52.7% 52.7% -4% 56% 53% 52.7% 60.8% 2% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 63163 (40.7%) 87345 (56.2%) 4801 (3.1%) 155309 #REF! #REF! 57.8% D
  Nevada 2 Jim Gibbons 1996 65% 74% R R 43% 39% 39% R 64% Landslide 36.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 32% 26% 32% 14% 3 44.5% 34.6% 35.2% 36.1% 36.0% 11% 44.5% -13% 30% 35% 34.6% -7% 34% 37% 36.6% -6% 26% 28% 28% -11% 29% 35% 35.2% 35.2% -7% 33% 36% 36.1% 36.0% -4% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 134540 (57.3%) 87705 (37.4%) 12493 (5.3%) 234738 #REF! #REF! 39.0% R
  Nevada 3 Joe Porter 2002   56%   R New 50% 50% Competitive 52% Competitive 48.3%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 ###### 44% ##### 2% 1 50.0% 48.3% ##### #VALUE! 47.4% 0% 50.0% -6% 46% 48% 48.3% #### ### #### ###### ##### 44% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 47.4% ###### 0% R-Competitive 1 #VALUE! 1-over #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 103720 (48.3%) 104772 (48.8%) 6119 (2.9%) 214611 #REF! #REF! 50.4% C
  New Hampshire 1 Jeb Bradley 2002 53% 58% R R 48% 48% 48% R 54% Tight 46.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 48% 42% 48% 4% 1 50.0% 46.0% 46.6% 47.8% 45.0% 0% 50.0% -6% 44% 46% 46.0% 0% 48% 48% 47.9% -6% 42% 44% 44% -4% 45% 47% 46.6% 46.6% 0% 49% 48% 47.8% 45.0% 0% 0% R-Tight 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 136474 (49.4%) 128278 (46.4%) 11545 (4.2%) 276297 #REF! #REF! 48.0% C
  New Hampshire 2 Charles Bass 1994 56% 57% R R 50% 50% 50% Competitive 53% Competitive 47.3%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 5.0 44% 43% 44% 3% 3 50.0% 47.5% 47.6% 47.3% 46.7% 0% 50.0% -7% 45% 48% 47.5% -6% 46% 48% 47.8% -1% 43% 43% 43% -6% 44% 48% 47.6% 47.6% -6% 45% 47% 47.3% 46.7% 0% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 132336 (47.4%) 134343 (48.1%) 12801 (4.6%) 279480 #REF! #REF! 49.7% C
  New Jersey 1 Robert Andrews 1990 76% 93% D D 68% 65% 65% D 68% Landslide 68.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 73% 93% 73% 18% 3 59.1% 73.9% 67.4% 68.0% 67.6% 18% 59.1% 28% 74% 83% 73.9% 8% 67% 70% 67.4% 20% 86% 93% 86% 22% 72% 85% 71.7% 67.4% 8% 68% 72% 68.0% 67.6% -3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 77367 (33.8%) 144226 (63.0%) 7261 (3.2%) 228854 #REF! #REF! 64.6% D
  New Jersey 2 Frank LoBiondo 1994 66% 69% R R 58% 56% 56% R 54% Tight 46.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 5.0 31% 31% 31% 4% 3 50.3% 47.6% 47.7% 46.0% 52.8% 1% 50.3% -25% 39% 48% 47.6% -24% 39% 48% 47.7% 0% 31% 31% 31% -25% 32% 48% 47.7% 47.7% -24% 32% 46% 46.0% 52.8% -2% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 105630 (42.6%) 134345 (54.2%) 7906 (3.2%) 247881 #REF! #REF! 55.8% D
  New Jersey 3 James Saxton 1984 57% 64% R R 57% 55% 55% Competitive 50% Competitive 49.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 10.0 41% 36% 41% 0% 3 50.0% 49.0% 49.5% 49.5% 52.2% 0% 50.0% -19% 43% 49% 49.0% -14% 46% 51% 50.5% -5% 36% 38% 38% -17% 39% 50% 49.5% 49.5% -14% 42% 50% 49.5% 52.2% -2% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 114621 (43.3%) 141964 (53.6%) 8208 (3.1%) 264793 #REF! #REF! 55.2% D
  New Jersey 4 Christopher Smith 1980 63% 66% R R 56% 52% 52% R 55% Comfortable 44.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 12.0 33% 34% 34% 5% 3 50.0% 45.9% 45.9% 44.6% 48.8% 0% 50.0% -18% 40% 46% 45.9% -19% 39% 46% 45.5% 1% 34% 33% 34% -18% 35% 46% 45.9% 45.9% -18% 35% 45% 44.6% 48.8% -4% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 114309 (46.4%) 123764 (50.2%) 8301 (3.4%) 246374 #REF! #REF! 51.8% C
  New Jersey 5 Scott Garrett 2002 65% 60% R R 48% 46% 46% R 56% Comfortable 44.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 33% 40% 40% 6% 1 50.0% 44.2% 44.2% 43.8% 43.1% 0% 50.0% -6% 42% 44% 44.2% -13% 37% 42% 41.8% 7% 40% 38% 40% -6% 41% 44% 44.2% 44.2% -6% 41% 44% 43.8% 43.1% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 140132 (52.0%) 120142 (44.5%) 9431 (3.5%) 269705 #REF! #REF! 46.1% R
  New Jersey 6 Frank Pallone 1988 68% 67% D D 62% 63% 63% D 65% Landslide 64.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 69% 67% 67% 15% 3 57.5% 64.3% 64.3% 64.5% 66.0% 15% 57.5% 4% 64% 66% 64.3% 6% 65% 67% 64.8% -2% 67% 67% 67% 4% 64% 66% 64.3% 64.3% 4% 65% 66% 64.5% 66.0% 1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 74828 (34.6%) 132583 (61.4%) 8638 (4.0%) 216049 #REF! #REF! 63.0% D
  New Jersey 7 Mike Ferguson 2000 52% 58% R R 58% 49% 49% R 53% Tight 46.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 2.0 40% 42% 42% 3% 2 50.0% 46.9% 46.9% 46.4% 46.3% 0% 50.0% -7% 44% 47% 46.9% -9% 43% 46% 46.3% 2% 42% 41% 42% -7% 43% 47% 46.9% 46.9% -7% 43% 46% 46.4% 46.3% -8% 0% R-Tight 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-over 127702 (48.8%) 124699 (47.7%) 9099 (3.5%) 261500 #REF! #REF! 49.3% C
  New Jersey 8 Bill Pascrell, Jr. 1996 67% 67% D D 64% 62% 62% D 63% Landslide 63.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 65% 67% 65% 13% 3 56.5% 63.6% 63.3% 63.1% 65.0% 13% 56.5% 5% 64% 65% 63.6% 3% 63% 64% 62.9% 2% 66% 67% 66% 4% 63% 65% 63.3% 63.3% 3% 63% 64% 63.1% 65.0% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 78446 (36.5%) 129906 (60.4%) 6784 (3.2%) 215136 #REF! #REF! 62.0% D
U New Jersey 9 Steve Rothman 1996 68% 70% D D 67% 65% 65% D 65% Landslide 65.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 66% 70% 66% 15% 3 59.3% 66.5% 66.0% 65.3% 67.8% 19% 59.3% 5% 66% 68% 66.5% 1% 65% 66% 65.2% 4% 69% 70% 69% 4% 66% 68% 66.0% 66.0% 1% 65% 65% 65.3% 67.8% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 72695 (33.9%) 135406 (63.2%) 6110 (2.9%) 214211 #REF! #REF! 64.8% D
U New Jersey 10 Donald Payne 1988 88% 85% D D 88% 84% 84% D 83% Landslide 83.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 84% 85% 84% 33% 3 78.8% 84.4% 84.4% 83.2% 87.3% 58% 78.8% 0% 84% 84% 84.4% 0% 84% 84% 84.3% 0% 84% 85% 84% 0% 84% 83% 84.4% 84.4% 0% 84% 83% 83.2% 87.3% -3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 27718 (15.6%) 147112 (82.7%) 3004 (1.7%) 177834 #REF! #REF! 84.3% D
  New Jersey 11 Rodney Frelinghuysen 1994 68% 72% R R 46% 44% 44% R 61% Landslide 38.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 30% 28% 30% 11% 3 50.0% 38.9% 39.2% 38.7% 41.5% 0% 50.0% -17% 33% 39% 38.9% -14% 35% 40% 39.7% -2% 28% 28% 28% -16% 29% 39% 39.2% 39.2% -14% 31% 39% 38.7% 41.5% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 151617 (53.7%) 121036 (42.9%) 9763 (3.5%) 282416 #REF! #REF! 44.5% R
  New Jersey 12 Rush Holt 1998 49% 60% D D 54% 58% 58% Competitive 51% Competitive 51.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 52% 60% 52% 1% 3 52.3% 58.6% 56.5% 51.2% 60.8% 5% 52.3% 2% 59% 59% 58.6% -6% 56% 54% 54.1% 8% 57% 60% 57% 0% 58% 56% 56.5% 56.5% -6% 56% 51% 51.2% 60.8% 3% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 101145 (40.2%) 141568 (56.2%) 9188 (3.6%) 251901 #REF! #REF! 57.8% D
  New Jersey 13 Robert Menendez 1992 79% 78% D D 76% 74% 74% D 75% Landslide 75.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 77% 78% 77% 25% 3 68.4% 75.3% 75.2% 75.1% 76.9% 37% 68.4% 4% 75% 77% 75.3% 3% 75% 76% 74.9% 1% 78% 78% 78% 4% 75% 77% 75.2% 75.2% 3% 75% 76% 75.1% 76.9% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 39554 (25.0%) 114586 (72.3%) 4338 (2.7%) 158478 #REF! #REF! 73.9% D
  New Mexico 1 Heather Wilson 1998 50% 55% R R 50% 50% 50% Competitive 49% Competitive 51.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 50% 45% 50% 1% 3 50.0% 48.3% 48.8% 51.1% 46.9% 0% 50.0% -5% 47% 48% 48.3% 0% 50% 50% 50.0% -5% 45% 47% 47% -3% 48% 49% 48.8% 48.8% 0% 51% 50% 51.1% 46.9% 0% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 103770 (47.0%) 106572 (48.3%) 10385 (4.7%) 220727 #REF! #REF! 49.9% C
  New Mexico 2 Steve Pearce 2002 58% 56% R R 45% 45% 45% R 56% Comfortable 44.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 42% 44% 44% 6% 1 50.0% 44.3% 44.3% 44.2% 41.6% 0% 50.0% -1% 44% 44% 44.3% -3% 43% 44% 43.7% 2% 44% 43% 44% -1% 45% 44% 44.3% 44.3% -1% 45% 44% 44.2% 41.6% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 96161 (53.8%) 76868 (43.0%) 5667 (3.2%) 178696 #REF! #REF! 44.6% R
  New Mexico 3 Thomas Udall 1998 67% 100% D D 54% 53% 53% D 59% Comfortable 58.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 67% 100% 67% 9% 3 50.0% 68.8% 57.8% 58.8% 56.4% 0% 50.0% 47% 69% 85% 68.8% 13% 58% 62% 57.8% 33% 89% 100% 89% 36% 65% 88% 65.2% 57.8% 13% 59% 66% 58.8% 56.4% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 86004 (43.3%) 102809 (51.8%) 9676 (4.9%) 198489 #REF! #REF! 53.4% D
  New York 1 Timothy Bishop 2002 56% 50% R D 55% 54% 54% Competitive 51% Competitive 51.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 44% 50% 44% 1% 1 50.0% 51.4% 47.0% 42.6% 56.9% 0% 50.0% -4% 53% 51% 51.4% -10% 51% 47% 47.0% 7% 48% 50% 48% -6% 52% 47% 47.0% 47.0% -10% 50% 43% 42.6% 56.9% -1% 0% D-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 116308 (43.6%) 139490 (52.3%) 10705 (4.0%) 266503 #REF! #REF! 53.9% D
  New York 2 Steve Israel 2000 48% 58% D D 58% 59% 59% D 54% Tight 54.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 2.0 49% 58% 49% 4% 2 53.5% 58.5% 54.1% 47.6% 62.0% 7% 53.5% -1% 59% 59% 58.5% -10% 56% 52% 52.1% 10% 55% 58% 55% -4% 58% 54% 54.1% 54.1% -10% 55% 48% 47.6% 62.0% 1% 0% D-Tight 2 2-under23 2-under 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-under23 100708 (39.4%) 146723 (57.4%) 8165 (3.2%) 255596 #REF! #REF! 59.0% D
  New York 3 Peter King 1992 60% 72% R R 57% 54% 54% Competitive 53% Competitive 47.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 37% 28% 37% 3% 3 50.0% 45.2% 46.2% 47.1% 50.7% 0% 50.0% -26% 37% 45% 45.2% -17% 43% 48% 48.2% -9% 28% 31% 31% -23% 32% 46% 46.2% 46.2% -17% 38% 47% 47.1% 50.7% -3% 0% R-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 127869 (44.4%) 150165 (52.1%) 10251 (3.6%) 288285 #REF! #REF! 53.7% D
  New York 4 Carolyn McCarthy 1996 61% 56% D D 61% 61% 61% D 55% Comfortable 55.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 60% 56% 56% 5% 3 55.3% 57.7% 55.2% 55.2% 63.8% 11% 55.3% -5% 59% 58% 57.7% -1% 61% 60% 60.4% -4% 58% 56% 56% -5% 59% 55% 55.2% 55.2% -5% 59% 55% 55.2% 63.8% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 99263 (37.6%) 156276 (59.2%) 8612 (3.3%) 264151 #REF! #REF! 60.8% D
  New York 5 Gary Ackerman 1983 68% 93% D D 64% 69% 69% D 70% Landslide 70.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 10.5 73% 93% 73% 20% 3 63.2% 76.6% 70.1% 70.4% 71.7% 26% 63.2% 24% 77% 85% 76.6% 4% 70% 71% 70.1% 20% 86% 93% 86% 17% 74% 85% 74.5% 70.1% 4% 70% 72% 70.4% 71.7% 5% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 56027 (29.6%) 127288 (67.1%) 6256 (3.3%) 189571 #REF! #REF! 68.7% D
2  UU New York 6 Gregory Meeks 1998 100% 96% D D 89% 88% 88% D 91% Landslide 91.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 99% 96% 96% 41% 4 82.7% 90.8% 91.7% 91.4% 91.2% 65% 82.7% 8% 91% 93% 90.8% 11% 92% 95% 91.7% -3% 97% 96% 96% 8% 91% 95% 90.8% 91.7% 8% 91% 95% 91.4% 1 91.2% -1% 0% D-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 17632 (10.5%) 145684 (86.6%) 4874 (2.9%) 168190 #REF! #REF! 88.2% D
  New York 7 Joseph Crowley 1998 72% 73% D D 73% 77% 77% D 72% Landslide 72.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 76% 73% 73% 22% 3 71.2% 74.3% 72.1% 72.1% 79.7% 42% 71.2% -4% 75% 74% 74.3% -1% 76% 76% 75.9% -3% 74% 73% 73% -4% 75% 72% 72.1% 72.1% -4% 75% 72% 72.1% 79.7% 4% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 31682 (20.8%) 114365 (75.1%) 6236 (4.1%) 152283 #REF! #REF! 76.7% D
  New York 8 Jerrold Nadler 1992 81% 74% D D 78% 75% 75% D 73% Landslide 73.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 78% 74% 74% 23% 3 69.9% 74.7% 73.3% 73.3% 78.4% 40% 69.9% -1% 75% 75% 74.7% 3% 76% 77% 76.3% -4% 76% 74% 74% -1% 75% 73% 73.3% 73.3% -1% 75% 73% 73.3% 78.4% -3% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 39280 (17.9%) 162240 (73.8%) 18448 (8.4%) 219968 #REF! #REF! 75.4% D
  New York 9 Anthony Weiner 1998 68% 65% D D 69% 68% 68% D 64% Landslide 63.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 68% 65% 65% 14% 3 63.0% 66.0% 63.8% 63.8% 71.5% 26% 63.0% -4% 67% 66% 66.0% -1% 68% 68% 68.1% -3% 66% 65% 65% -4% 67% 64% 63.8% 63.8% -4% 67% 64% 63.8% 71.5% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 54699 (29.5%) 123763 (66.9%) 6649 (3.6%) 185111 #REF! #REF! 68.5% D
  New York 10 Ed Towns 1982 90% 98% D D 90% 89% 89% D 89% Landslide 89.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 89% 98% 89% 39% 3 83.7% 92.0% 89.3% 89.3% 92.2% 67% 83.7% 9% 92% 95% 92.0% 0% 89% 89% 89.3% 8% 95% 98% 95% 6% 91% 94% 91.1% 89.3% 0% 89% 88% 89.3% 92.2% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 13058 (7.7%) 149018 (87.6%) 8029 (4.7%) 170105 #REF! #REF! 89.2% D
U New York 11 Major Owens 1982 87% 86% D D 91% 84% 84% D 80% Landslide 79.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 81% 86% 81% 30% 3 78.7% 84.8% 81.9% 79.7% 87.2% 57% 78.7% 2% 85% 85% 84.8% -4% 83% 82% 81.9% 5% 84% 86% 84% 0% 84% 83% 83.2% 81.9% -4% 83% 80% 79.7% 87.2% -6% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-uncont 1 15652 (8.6%) 149740 (82.6%) 15828 (8.7%) 181220 #REF! #REF! 84.2% D
  New York 12 Nydia Velazquez 1992 87% 95% D D 82% 78% 78% D 80% Landslide 80.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 83% 95% 83% 30% 3 72.9% 83.8% 80.0% 80.3% 81.4% 46% 72.9% 16% 84% 89% 83.8% 5% 80% 82% 80.0% 11% 91% 95% 91% 12% 83% 90% 82.5% 80.0% 5% 80% 82% 80.3% 81.4% -4% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 19604 (14.7%) 102465 (76.8%) 11268 (8.5%) 133337 #REF! #REF! 78.4% D
  New York 13 Vito Fossella 1997 65% 70% R R 55% 54% 54% R 54% Tight 46.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 3.5 35% 30% 35% 4% 3 50.0% 46.3% 46.7% 46.4% 51.0% 0% 50.0% -24% 38% 46% 46.3% -19% 41% 48% 47.7% -4% 30% 32% 32% -22% 33% 47% 46.7% 46.7% -19% 36% 46% 46.4% 51.0% -1% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 85119 (44.2%) 101079 (52.4%) 6538 (3.4%) 192736 #REF! #REF! 54.0% D
  New York 14 Carolyn Maloney 1992 74% 75% D D 73% 71% 71% D 72% Landslide 71.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 72% 75% 72% 22% 3 65.9% 72.6% 72.3% 71.7% 74.4% 32% 65.9% 4% 73% 74% 72.6% 1% 72% 72% 71.6% 3% 74% 75% 74% 3% 72% 73% 72.3% 72.3% 1% 72% 71% 71.7% 74.4% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 56055 (23.2%) 168842 (69.8%) 16908 (7.0%) 241805 #REF! #REF! 71.4% D
  New York 15 Charles Rangel 1970 92% 87% D D 92% 88% 88% D 86% Landslide 85.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 17.0 88% 87% 87% 36% 3 82.6% 87.3% 88.1% 85.9% 91.1% 65% 82.6% -1% 88% 87% 87.3% 0% 88% 88% 88.1% -1% 87% 87% 87% -1% 88% 86% 85.9% 88.1% -1% 88% 86% 85.9% 91.1% -4% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-uncont 1 12430 (6.5%) 165002 (86.5%) 13292 (7.0%) 190724 #REF! #REF! 88.1% D
  New York 16 Jose Serrano 1990 96% 92% D D 94% 94% 94% D 91% Landslide 91.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 96% 92% 92% 41% 3 88.5% 92.8% 94.7% 91.1% 97.0% 77% 88.5% -2% 93% 93% 92.8% 2% 95% 95% 94.7% -4% 93% 92% 92% -2% 93% 91% 91.1% 94.7% -2% 93% 91% 91.1% 97.0% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-uncont 1 6634 (5.4%) 112786 (92.4%) 2630 (2.2%) 122050 #REF! #REF! 94.0% D
  New York 17 Eliot Engel 1988 90% 62% D D 88% 71% 71% D 61% Landslide 61.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 72% 62% 62% 11% 3 65.4% 65.2% 61.3% 61.3% 73.9% 31% 65.4% -9% 68% 65% 65.2% 1% 71% 72% 71.3% -10% 66% 62% 62% -9% 68% 61% 61.3% 61.3% -9% 67% 61% 61.3% 73.9% -17% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 54362 (26.6%) 141525 (69.3%) 8438 (4.1%) 204325 #REF! #REF! 70.9% D
  New York 18 Nita Lowey 1988 67% 92% D D 62% 60% 60% D 62% Landslide 61.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 65% 92% 65% 12% 3 54.2% 70.4% 61.5% 61.9% 62.7% 8% 54.2% 33% 70% 82% 70.4% 6% 61% 63% 61.5% 27% 83% 92% 83% 24% 67% 82% 67.5% 61.5% 6% 62% 64% 61.9% 62.7% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 103248 (38.5%) 155700 (58.1%) 9268 (3.5%) 268216 #REF! #REF! 59.7% D
  New York 19 Sue Kelly 1994 61% 70% R R 52% 48% 48% R 57% Comfortable 43.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 36% 30% 36% 7% 3 50.0% 42.2% 42.8% 43.2% 45.3% 0% 50.0% -18% 36% 42% 42.2% -13% 40% 44% 44.1% -6% 30% 32% 32% -17% 33% 43% 42.8% 42.8% -13% 37% 43% 43.2% 45.3% -4% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 133157 (49.0%) 126785 (46.7%) 11698 (4.3%) 271640 #REF! #REF! 48.3% C
  New York 20 John Sweeney 1998 68% 73% R R 46% 46% 46% R 60% Landslide 39.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 31% 27% 31% 10% 3 50.0% 39.4% 39.9% 39.9% 42.6% 0% 50.0% -19% 33% 39% 39.4% -14% 36% 41% 40.9% -5% 27% 28% 28% -17% 29% 40% 39.9% 39.9% -14% 32% 40% 39.9% 42.6% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 146792 (50.7%) 127419 (44.0%) 15232 (5.3%) 289443 #REF! #REF! 45.6% R
  New York 21 Michael McNulty 1988 74% 75% D D 59% 58% 58% D 64% Landslide 63.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 72% 75% 72% 14% 3 52.0% 63.3% 63.0% 63.5% 60.5% 4% 52.0% 18% 63% 69% 63.3% 15% 62% 68% 62.5% 3% 74% 75% 74% 17% 63% 73% 63.0% 63.0% 15% 64% 71% 63.5% 60.5% -2% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 114979 (39.0%) 165003 (55.9%) 15101 (5.1%) 295083 #REF! #REF! 57.5% D
  New York 22 Maurice Hinchey 1992 62% 64% D D 53% 53% 53% D 56% Comfortable 56.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 61% 64% 61% 6% 3 50.0% 56.4% 56.1% 56.1% 55.6% 0% 50.0% 11% 56% 60% 56.4% 9% 55% 58% 55.5% 3% 63% 64% 63% 10% 56% 62% 56.1% 56.1% 9% 56% 60% 56.1% 55.6% -1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 108460 (42.1%) 131421 (51.0%) 17578 (6.8%) 257459 #REF! #REF! 52.6% C
  New York 23 John McHugh 1992 74% 100% R R 50% 49% 49% R 61% Landslide 39.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 24% 0% 24% 11% 3 50.0% 32.6% 40.7% 39.0% 45.7% 0% 50.0% -49% 16% 33% 32.6% -24% 32% 41% 40.7% -24% 0% 8% 8% -41% 9% 35% 35.3% 40.7% -24% 25% 39% 39.0% 45.7% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 119472 (48.6%) 115611 (47.1%) 10520 (4.3%) 245603 #REF! #REF! 48.7% C
  New York 24 Sherwood Boehlert 1982 61% 71% R R 47% 49% 49% R 54% Tight 45.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 11.0 41% 29% 41% 4% 3 50.0% 42.3% 43.6% 45.8% 45.7% 0% 50.0% -19% 36% 42% 42.3% -7% 44% 46% 46.3% -12% 29% 33% 33% -15% 34% 44% 43.6% 43.6% -7% 42% 46% 45.8% 45.7% 2% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 129050 (48.2%) 126021 (47.1%) 12639 (4.7%) 267710 #REF! #REF! 48.7% C
U New York 25 James Walsh 1988 69% 72% R R 55% 52% 52% R 57% Comfortable 42.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 8.0 28% 28% 28% 7% 3 50.0% 44.2% 44.2% 42.7% 49.3% 0% 50.0% -25% 36% 44% 44.2% -24% 36% 44% 44.3% -1% 28% 28% 28% -24% 29% 44% 44.2% 44.2% -24% 29% 43% 42.7% 49.3% -3% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 132126 (45.0%) 148623 (50.7%) 12619 (4.3%) 293368 #REF! #REF! 52.3% C
  New York 26 Thomas Reynolds 1998 69% 74% R R 44% 46% 46% R 59% Comfortable 40.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 32% 26% 32% 9% 3 50.0% 39.5% 40.2% 40.5% 43.0% 0% 50.0% -20% 33% 39% 39.5% -14% 37% 41% 41.5% -6% 26% 28% 28% -18% 29% 40% 40.2% 40.2% -14% 33% 41% 40.5% 43.0% 2% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 144516 (50.6%) 126693 (44.4%) 14188 (5.0%) 285397 #REF! #REF! 46.0% R
O New York 27 Open (Jack Quinn) 1992 1 67% 69% R R 62% 55% 55% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 33% 31% 33% 0% 0 50.0% 47.1% 47.3% 46.1% 52.0% 0% 50.0% -24% 39% 47% 47.1% -22% 40% 48% 47.7% -2% 31% 32% 32% -23% 33% 47% 47.3% 47.3% -22% 34% 46% 46.1% 52.0% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 114859 (40.9%) 149840 (53.4%) 16090 (5.7%) 280789 #REF! #REF! 55.0% D
  New York 28 Louise Slaughter 1986 66% 62% D D 55% 61% 61% D 62% Landslide 61.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 72% 62% 62% 12% 3 55.7% 61.6% 61.6% 61.7% 64.2% 11% 55.7% 1% 62% 62% 61.6% 10% 65% 68% 64.7% -9% 65% 62% 62% 1% 62% 61% 61.6% 61.6% 1% 62% 61% 61.7% 64.2% 6% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 88461 (34.8%) 151402 (59.6%) 14160 (5.6%) 254023 #REF! #REF! 61.2% D
O New York 29 Open (Amo Houghton) 1986 1 77% 73% R R 45% 44% 44% Competitive 50% Competitive 49.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 9.0 23% 27% 27% 0% 0 49.8% 38.6% 38.6% 37.4% 41.3% 0% 49.8% -17% 33% 39% 38.6% -22% 30% 37% 37.1% 4% 27% 26% 27% -17% 28% 39% 38.6% 38.6% -17% 28% 37% 37.4% 41.3% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 152004 (53.4%) 121596 (42.7%) 11318 (4.0%) 284918 #REF! #REF! 44.3% R
V North Carolina 1 G. K. Butterfield 2002 66% 64% D D 59% 59% 59% D 61% Landslide 60.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 66% 64% 64% 11% 1 53.7% 60.7% 60.7% 61.0% 62.2% 7% 53.7% 5% 61% 62% 60.7% 7% 61% 64% 61.4% -2% 64% 64% 64% 5% 61% 63% 60.7% 60.7% 5% 61% 63% 61.0% 62.2% 0% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 82204 (42.4%) 111558 (57.6%)   (0.0%) 193762 #REF! #REF! 59.2% D
  North Carolina 2 Bob Etheridge 1996 58% 65% D D 46% 48% 48% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.6%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 60% 65% 60% 3% 3 50.0% 53.5% 52.9% 52.6% 50.7% 0% 50.0% 18% 54% 60% 53.5% 12% 52% 56% 51.8% 5% 64% 65% 64% 16% 53% 63% 52.9% 52.9% 12% 53% 59% 52.6% 50.7% 2% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 98607 (53.1%) 85552 (46.1%) 1378 (0.7%) 185537 #REF! #REF! 47.7% C
  North Carolina 3 Walter Jones, Jr. 1994 61% 91% R R 40% 37% 37% R 64% Landslide 36.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 35% 9% 35% 14% 3 42.0% 27.5% 36.2% 36.1% 33.5% 16% 42.0% -27% 18% 28% 27.5% -1% 36% 36% 36.2% -26% 9% 18% 18% -19% 19% 30% 30.4% 36.2% -1% 36% 36% 36.1% 33.5% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 134471 (64.3%) 73035 (34.9%) 1589 (0.8%) 209095 #REF! #REF! 36.5% R
  North Carolina 4 David Price 1996 62% 61% D D 53% 55% 55% D 57% Comfortable 57.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 63% 61% 61% 7% 3 50.0% 56.9% 56.9% 57.3% 57.7% 0% 50.0% 6% 57% 59% 56.9% 9% 58% 61% 57.6% -2% 62% 61% 61% 6% 57% 60% 56.9% 56.9% 6% 57% 60% 57.3% 57.7% 2% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 112885 (45.6%) 131532 (53.1%) 3180 (1.3%) 247597 #REF! #REF! 54.7% D
O North Carolina 5 Open (Richard Burr) 1994 1 93% 70% R R 39% 35% 35% R 60% Comfortable 40.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Change 5% 50% 5.0 7% 30% 30% 10% 0 40.1% 33.0% 33.0% 32.7% 31.6% 20% 40.1% -5% 31% 33% 33.0% -27% 16% 26% 25.6% 23% 30% 22% 30% -5% 31% 33% 33.0% 33.0% -5% 31% 33% 32.7% 31.6% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 163705 (66.1%) 81704 (33.0%) 2147 (0.9%) 247556 #REF! #REF! 34.6% R
2 North Carolina 6 Howard Coble 1984 91% 90% R R 37% 34% 34% R 69% Landslide 30.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 10.0 6% 10% 10% 19% 4 39.1% 25.7% 24.5% 24.0% 30.6% 22% 39.1% -24% 18% 26% 25.7% -28% 15% 24% 24.5% 4% 10% 8% 10% -24% 11% 26% 25.7% 24.5% -24% 11% 24% 24.0% 1 30.6% -3% 0% R-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 160141 (67.2%) 76315 (32.0%) 1727 (0.7%) 238183 #REF! #REF! 33.6% R
  North Carolina 7 Mike McIntyre 1996 70% 71% D D 49% 49% 49% D 58% Comfortable 57.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 70% 71% 70% 8% 3 50.0% 56.5% 56.4% 57.7% 52.3% 0% 50.0% 22% 57% 64% 56.5% 21% 56% 63% 56.2% 1% 71% 71% 71% 21% 56% 70% 56.4% 56.4% 21% 58% 69% 57.7% 52.3% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 108091 (51.6%) 100025 (47.7%) 1420 (0.7%) 209536 #REF! #REF! 49.3% C
  North Carolina 8 Robin Hayes 1998 55% 54% R R 46% 47% 47% R 53% Tight 47.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 3.0 47% 46% 47% 3% 3 50.0% 46.9% 46.9% 47.0% 44.2% 0% 50.0% -1% 47% 47% 46.9% -1% 47% 47% 47.0% 0% 46% 46% 46% -1% 47% 47% 46.9% 46.9% -1% 48% 47% 47.0% 44.2% 2% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 105484 (53.6%) 89672 (45.6%) 1568 (0.8%) 196724 #REF! #REF! 47.2% C
  North Carolina 9 Sue Myrick 1994 69% 72% R R 40% 38% 38% R 65% Landslide 34.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 29% 28% 29% 15% 3 43.5% 34.5% 34.7% 34.5% 35.0% 13% 43.5% -10% 31% 35% 34.5% -9% 32% 35% 35.1% -2% 28% 28% 28% -10% 29% 35% 34.7% 34.7% -9% 30% 35% 34.5% 35.0% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 157734 (62.8%) 91353 (36.4%) 2066 (0.8%) 251153 #REF! #REF! 38.0% R
O North Carolina 10 Open (Cass Ballenger) 1986 1 68% 59% R R 34% 36% 36% R 59% Comfortable 41.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Change 5% 50% 9.0 32% 41% 41% 9% 0 41.4% 39.1% 41.7% 41.7% 32.9% 17% 41.4% 5% 39% 37% 39.1% -4% 33% 35% 34.5% 9% 41% 38% 41% 5% 42% 37% 41.7% 41.7% 5% 42% 38% 41.7% 32.9% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 0 0-under23 0-under 0-cont 0 0-under23 143124 (64.9%) 75592 (34.3%) 1693 (0.8%) 220409 #REF! #REF! 35.9% R
  North Carolina 11 Charles Taylor 1990 55% 56% R R 42% 41% 41% R 55% Tight 45.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 7.0 44% 44% 44% 5% 3 46.9% 43.5% 45.5% 45.5% 38.4% 6% 46.9% 3% 43% 42% 43.5% 3% 43% 42% 43.3% 0% 44% 44% 44% 3% 45% 42% 45.5% 45.5% 3% 45% 43% 45.5% 38.4% -1% 0% R-Tight 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 150004 (58.4%) 102321 (39.8%) 4514 (1.8%) 256839 #REF! #REF! 41.4% R
  North Carolina 12 Melvin Watt 1992 65% 65% D D 63% 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 59.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 61% 65% 61% 9% 3 53.0% 60.8% 60.2% 59.3% 61.5% 6% 53.0% 7% 61% 63% 60.8% 2% 59% 60% 59.2% 5% 64% 65% 64% 5% 60% 63% 60.2% 60.2% 2% 59% 60% 59.3% 61.5% -4% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 85950 (42.4%) 115445 (56.9%) 1495 (0.7%) 202890 #REF! #REF! 58.5% D
  North Carolina 13 Brad Miller 2002   55% D New 51% 51% Competitive 52% Competitive 52.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 #REF! 55% #REF! 2% 1 50.0% 52.2% #REF! #REF! 53.9% 0% 50.0% 4% 52% 53% 52.2% #### ### #### #REF! #REF! ### 55% #### #REF! #### #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! ### ### #REF! 53.9% ###### 0% D-Competitive 1 #REF! 1-over #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 113600 (49.6%) 112953 (49.3%) 2429 (1.1%) 228982 #REF! #REF! 50.9% C
  North Dakota 1 Earl Pomeroy 1992 53% 52% D D 35% 35% 35% Vulnerable 42% Vulnerable 41.8%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 5% 50% 6.0 53% 52% 52% 8% 3 40.2% 40.5% 40.5% 41.8% 37.7% 20% 40.2% 18% 41% 47% 40.5% 18% 41% 47% 40.7% 0% 53% 52% 52% 18% 41% 51% 40.5% 40.5% 18% 42% 51% 41.8% 37.7% 0% 0% D-Vulnerable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 174852 (60.7%) 95284 (33.1%) 18120 (6.3%) 288256 34.7% R
  Ohio 1 Steve Chabot 1994 53% 65% R R 52% 47% 47% R 55% Tight 45.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 5.0 43% 35% 43% 5% 3 50.0% 43.1% 43.9% 45.3% 44.1% 0% 50.0% -12% 39% 43% 43.1% -5% 44% 46% 45.6% -7% 35% 38% 38% -10% 39% 44% 43.9% 43.9% -5% 44% 45% 45.3% 44.1% -5% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 136372 (51.3%) 120927 (45.5%) 8463 (3.2%) 265762 #REF! #REF! 47.1% C
  Ohio 2 Rob Portman 1993 74% 74% R R 34% 36% 36% R 67% Landslide 33.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.5 29% 26% 29% 17% 3 41.4% 32.6% 32.9% 33.1% 32.9% 17% 41.4% -10% 29% 33% 32.6% -7% 31% 34% 33.6% -3% 26% 27% 27% -9% 28% 33% 32.9% 32.9% -7% 30% 33% 33.1% 32.9% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 175382 (62.7%) 96027 (34.3%) 8187 (2.9%) 279596 #REF! #REF! 35.9% R
  Ohio 3 Michael Turner 2002 83% 59% D R 52% 47% 47% R 55% Comfortable 44.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 78% 41% 78% 5% 1 50.0% 44.8% 54.3% 78.9% 43.5% 0% 50.0% -5% 43% 45% 44.8% 31% 68% 57% 67.5% -37% 41% 53% 53% 7% 54% 49% 54.3% 54.3% 31% 79% 59% 78.9% 43.5% -5% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 130446 (52.3%) 112102 (44.9%) 6874 (2.8%) 249422 #REF! #REF! 46.5% R
  Ohio 4 Michael Oxley 1981 67% 67% R R 37% 36% 36% R 65% Landslide 34.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.5 32% 33% 33% 15% 3 41.8% 35.0% 35.0% 34.8% 33.3% 16% 41.8% -4% 34% 35% 35.0% -4% 34% 35% 35.0% 0% 33% 32% 33% -4% 34% 35% 35.0% 35.0% -4% 34% 35% 34.8% 33.3% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 158862 (62.1%) 88760 (34.7%) 8244 (3.2%) 255866 #REF! #REF! 36.3% R
  Ohio 5 Paul Gilmor 1988 70% 67% R R 42% 39% 39% R 63% Landslide 36.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 28% 33% 33% 13% 3 44.5% 36.9% 36.9% 36.5% 36.0% 11% 44.5% -6% 35% 37% 36.9% -11% 31% 35% 35.2% 5% 33% 31% 33% -6% 34% 37% 36.9% 36.9% -6% 34% 37% 36.5% 36.0% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 158037 (59.1%) 99818 (37.4%) 9383 (3.5%) 267238 #REF! #REF! 39.0% R
UU Ohio 6 Ted Strickland 1996 58% 59% D D 43% 49% 49% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 64% 59% 59% 3% 3 50.0% 52.1% 52.1% 52.9% 51.5% 0% 50.0% 11% 52% 56% 52.1% 15% 54% 59% 53.5% -4% 61% 59% 59% 11% 52% 58% 52.1% 52.1% 11% 53% 58% 52.9% 51.5% 6% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 129689 (48.6%) 125292 (46.9%) 11969 (4.5%) 266950 #REF! #REF! 48.5% C
  Ohio 7 David Hobson 1990 68% 68% R R 41% 43% 43% R 60% Landslide 39.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 35% 32% 35% 10% 3 48.6% 39.5% 39.8% 39.8% 40.1% 3% 48.6% -11% 36% 40% 39.5% -8% 38% 40% 40.4% -3% 32% 33% 33% -10% 34% 40% 39.8% 39.8% -8% 36% 40% 39.8% 40.1% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 137548 (55.5%) 102846 (41.5%) 7644 (3.1%) 248038 #REF! #REF! 43.1% R
  Ohio 8 John Boehner 1990 71% 71% R R 36% 38% 38% R 65% Landslide 35.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 7.0 31% 29% 31% 15% 3 43.2% 34.9% 35.1% 35.1% 34.7% 14% 43.2% -8% 32% 35% 34.9% -7% 33% 36% 35.5% -2% 29% 30% 30% -8% 31% 35% 35.1% 35.1% -7% 32% 35% 35.1% 34.7% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 155132 (61.0%) 91744 (36.1%) 7371 (2.9%) 254247 #REF! #REF! 37.7% R
  Ohio 9 Marcy Kaptur 1982 75% 74% D D 57% 57% 57% D 64% Landslide 63.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 11.0 75% 74% 74% 14% 3 51.5% 62.5% 62.5% 63.7% 60.0% 3% 51.5% 17% 63% 68% 62.5% 18% 63% 69% 63.0% -1% 74% 74% 74% 17% 63% 73% 62.5% 62.5% 17% 64% 73% 63.7% 60.0% 0% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 100704 (41.4%) 134907 (55.4%) 7894 (3.2%) 243505 #REF! #REF! 57.0% D
  Ohio 10 Dennis Kucinich 1996 75% 74% D D 56% 55% 55% D 62% Landslide 62.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 74% 74% 74% 12% 3 50.0% 61.1% 61.1% 62.4% 57.7% 0% 50.0% 19% 61% 68% 61.1% 19% 61% 68% 61.0% 0% 74% 74% 74% 19% 61% 73% 61.1% 61.1% 19% 62% 73% 62.4% 57.7% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 96623 (41.9%) 122219 (53.1%) 11540 (5.0%) 230382 #REF! #REF! 54.7% D
U Ohio 11 Stephanie T. Jones 1998 85% 76% D D 85% 81% 81% D 75% Landslide 75.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 81% 76% 76% 25% 3 75.3% 77.8% 75.3% 75.3% 83.8% 51% 75.3% -5% 79% 78% 77.8% 0% 81% 81% 80.9% -5% 78% 76% 76% -5% 79% 75% 75.3% 75.3% -5% 79% 75% 75.3% 83.8% -4% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 38382 (17.7%) 172146 (79.2%) 6706 (3.1%) 217234 #REF! #REF! 80.8% D
  Ohio 12 Patrick Tiberi 2000 53% 65% R R 48% 47% 47% R 55% Comfortable 44.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 47% 35% 47% 5% 2 50.0% 43.3% 44.6% 47.0% 44.2% 0% 50.0% -12% 39% 43% 43.3% 0% 47% 47% 47.1% -11% 35% 39% 39% -8% 40% 45% 44.6% 44.6% 0% 48% 47% 47.0% 44.2% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 129840 (51.5%) 115083 (45.6%) 7340 (2.9%) 252263 #REF! #REF! 47.2% C
  Ohio 13 Sherrod Brown 1992 65% 69% D D 48% 54% 54% D 60% Landslide 60.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 71% 69% 69% 10% 3 50.0% 59.1% 59.1% 60.1% 57.2% 0% 50.0% 15% 59% 64% 59.1% 17% 60% 66% 59.8% -2% 70% 69% 69% 15% 59% 68% 59.1% 59.1% 15% 60% 68% 60.1% 57.2% 7% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 110812 (43.7%) 133458 (52.6%) 9559 (3.8%) 253829 #REF! #REF! 54.2% D
  Ohio 14 Steve LaTourette 1994 69% 72% R R 51% 46% 46% R 62% Landslide 38.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 26% 28% 28% 12% 3 50.0% 39.7% 39.7% 38.5% 42.6% 0% 50.0% -18% 34% 40% 39.7% -20% 32% 39% 39.1% 2% 28% 27% 28% -18% 29% 40% 39.7% 39.7% -18% 29% 38% 38.5% 42.6% -5% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 147148 (52.0%) 124582 (44.0%) 11360 (4.0%) 283090 #REF! #REF! 45.6% R
  Ohio 15 Deborah Pryce 1992 67% 67% R R 47% 45% 45% R 59% Comfortable 40.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 31% 33% 33% 9% 3 50.0% 41.4% 41.4% 40.5% 42.4% 0% 50.0% -12% 37% 41% 41.4% -14% 36% 41% 40.7% 2% 33% 33% 33% -12% 34% 41% 41.4% 41.4% -12% 34% 41% 40.5% 42.4% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 117175 (52.2%) 98204 (43.8%) 8931 (4.0%) 224310 #REF! #REF! 45.4% R
  Ohio 16 Ralph Regula 1972 69% 69% R R 44% 44% 44% R 61% Landslide 38.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 16.0 31% 31% 31% 11% 3 49.5% 39.8% 39.8% 38.9% 41.0% 1% 49.5% -13% 35% 40% 39.8% -13% 35% 40% 39.8% 0% 31% 31% 31% -13% 32% 40% 39.8% 39.8% -13% 32% 39% 38.9% 41.0% 0% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 141311 (53.4%) 112270 (42.4%) 10908 (4.1%) 264489 #REF! #REF! 44.0% R
  Ohio 17 Timothy Ryan 2002 50% 51% D D 60% 62% 62% D 55% Tight 54.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 52% 51% 51% 5% 1 56.5% 54.7% 50.1% 50.1% 65.0% 13% 56.5% -11% 58% 55% 54.7% -10% 59% 55% 55.5% -1% 51% 51% 51% -11% 58% 50% 50.1% 50.1% -11% 58% 50% 50.1% 65.0% 2% 0% D-Tight 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 88184 (35.3%) 150748 (60.4%) 10767 (4.3%) 249699 #REF! #REF! 62.0% D
  Ohio 18 Bob Ney 1994 64% 100% R R 47% 42% 42% R 62% Landslide 38.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 31% 0% 31% 12% 3 47.9% 28.4% 38.8% 38.0% 39.4% 4% 47.9% -42% 14% 28% 28.4% -11% 35% 39% 38.8% -31% 0% 10% 10% -32% 11% 32% 31.8% 38.8% -11% 32% 38% 38.0% 39.4% -4% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 132709 (55.1%) 98328 (40.8%) 9810 (4.1%) 240847 #REF! #REF! 42.4% R
  Oklahoma 1 John Sullivan 2002 54% 56% R R 39% 39% 39% R 58% Comfortable 42.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.1 46% 44% 46% 8% 1 44.1% 42.5% 45.8% 46.6% 35.6% 12% 44.1% 6% 42% 40% 42.5% 7% 43% 41% 43.3% -1% 44% 45% 45% 6% 46% 41% 45.8% 45.8% 7% 47% 41% 46.6% 35.6% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 165759 (61.7%) 99283 (37.0%) 3566 (1.3%) 268608 #REF! #REF! 38.6% R
O Oklahoma 2 Open (Brad Carson) 2000 1 55% 74% D D 48% 48% 48% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 55% 74% 55% 0% 0 50.0% 56.7% 54.6% 50.8% 51.1% 0% 50.0% 26% 57% 66% 56.7% 7% 50% 53% 50.4% 19% 68% 74% 68% 20% 55% 67% 54.6% 54.6% 7% 51% 54% 50.8% 51.1% 0% 0% D-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 123952 (52.0%) 110791 (46.5%) 3438 (1.4%) 238181 #REF! #REF! 48.1% C
U Oklahoma 3 Frank Lucas 1994 59% 76% R R 40% 35% 35% R 63% Landslide 37.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 36% 24% 36% 13% 3 40.9% 31.8% 33.0% 37.2% 32.4% 18% 40.9% -11% 28% 32% 31.8% 1% 36% 36% 35.9% -12% 24% 28% 28% -7% 29% 33% 33.0% 33.0% 1% 37% 36% 37.2% 32.4% -4% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 163302 (65.1%) 84691 (33.8%) 2805 (1.1%) 250798 #REF! #REF! 35.4% R
U Oklahoma 4 Tom Cole 2002 65% 54% R R 40% 40% 40% R 56% Comfortable 44.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 35% 46% 46% 6% 1 45.3% 44.1% 47.2% 47.2% 36.8% 9% 45.3% 6% 44% 42% 44.1% -5% 37% 38% 38.4% 11% 46% 43% 46% 6% 47% 42% 47.2% 47.2% 6% 47% 42% 47.2% 36.8% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 144568 (60.7%) 91078 (38.2%) 2497 (1.0%) 238143 #REF! #REF! 39.8% R
  Oklahoma 5 Ernest Istook 1992 68% 62% R R 32% 39% 39% R 61% Landslide 38.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 38% 38% 38% 11% 3 44.7% 38.7% 38.8% 38.9% 36.2% 11% 44.7% -1% 38% 39% 38.7% -1% 39% 39% 38.9% -1% 38% 38% 38% -1% 39% 39% 38.8% 38.8% -1% 39% 39% 38.9% 36.2% 7% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 135761 (61.8%) 82584 (37.6%) 1338 (0.6%) 219683 #REF! #REF! 39.2% R
  Oregon 1 David Wu 1998 58% 63% D D 53% 52% 52% D 54% Tight 54.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 3.0 57% 63% 57% 4% 3 50.0% 55.5% 54.9% 54.1% 54.9% 0% 50.0% 11% 56% 59% 55.5% 5% 54% 56% 53.7% 6% 61% 63% 61% 9% 55% 60% 54.9% 54.9% 5% 54% 56% 54.1% 54.9% -1% 0% D-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 131808 (44.0%) 150768 (50.3%) 17057 (5.7%) 299633 #REF! #REF! 51.9% C
  Oregon 2 Greg Walden 1998 74% 72% R R 37% 36% 36% R 67% Landslide 32.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 26% 28% 28% 17% 3 41.6% 33.4% 33.4% 32.9% 33.1% 17% 41.6% -8% 31% 33% 33.4% -11% 29% 33% 32.6% 2% 28% 27% 28% -8% 29% 33% 33.4% 33.4% -8% 29% 33% 32.9% 33.1% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 182924 (59.6%) 105971 (34.5%) 18078 (5.9%) 306973 #REF! #REF! 36.1% R
  Oregon 3 Earl Blumenauer 1996 67% 67% D D 63% 63% 63% D 64% Landslide 63.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 66% 67% 66% 14% 3 57.0% 64.0% 63.9% 63.9% 65.5% 14% 57.0% 5% 64% 66% 64.0% 3% 64% 65% 63.7% 1% 67% 67% 67% 4% 64% 66% 63.9% 63.9% 3% 64% 65% 63.9% 65.5% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 93213 (32.1%) 176831 (60.9%) 20264 (7.0%) 290308 #REF! #REF! 62.5% D
  Oregon 4 Peter DeFazio 1986 68% 64% D D 46% 46% 46% Competitive 53% Competitive 53.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 9.0 68% 64% 64% 3% 3 50.0% 51.7% 51.7% 53.0% 48.9% 0% 50.0% 18% 52% 58% 51.7% 22% 53% 61% 53.1% -4% 65% 64% 64% 18% 52% 63% 51.7% 51.7% 18% 53% 63% 53.0% 48.9% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 156362 (48.7%) 142123 (44.3%) 22601 (7.0%) 321086 #REF! #REF! 45.9% R
  Oregon 5 Darlene Hooley 1996 57% 55% D D 48% 48% 48% Competitive 51% Competitive 50.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 57% 55% 55% 1% 3 50.0% 50.3% 50.3% 50.8% 51.1% 0% 50.0% 7% 50% 53% 50.3% 9% 51% 54% 51.0% -2% 56% 55% 55% 7% 50% 54% 50.3% 50.3% 7% 51% 54% 50.8% 51.1% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 149276 (48.0%) 144657 (46.5%) 17047 (5.5%) 310980 #REF! #REF! 48.1% C
  Pennsylvania 1 Robert Brady 1998 88% 86% D D 87% 86% 86% D 86% Landslide 85.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 87% 86% 86% 36% 3 80.1% 85.9% 86.0% 85.9% 88.6% 60% 80.1% 1% 86% 86% 85.9% 1% 86% 86% 86.0% 0% 86% 86% 86% 1% 86% 85% 85.9% 86.0% 1% 86% 85% 85.9% 88.6% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 31722 (14.7%) 181274 (84.0%) 2679 (1.2%) 215675 #REF! #REF! 85.6% D
  Pennsylvania 2 Chaka Fattah 1994 98% 73% D D 90% 89% 89% D 72% Landslide 72.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 97% 73% 73% 22% 3 83.1% 78.5% 72.4% 72.4% 91.6% 66% 83.1% -15% 84% 78% 78.5% 8% 91% 94% 91.4% -23% 81% 73% 73% -15% 84% 72% 72.4% 72.4% -15% 83% 72% 72.4% 91.6% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 29458 (11.6%) 221517 (87.0%) 3529 (1.4%) 254504 #REF! #REF! 88.6% D
  Pennsylvania 3 Phil English 1994 61% 78% R R 50% 48% 48% R 56% Comfortable 43.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 37% 22% 37% 6% 3 50.0% 39.5% 41.2% 43.8% 45.1% 0% 50.0% -26% 31% 40% 39.5% -11% 41% 45% 44.5% -15% 22% 27% 27% -21% 28% 41% 41.2% 41.2% -11% 38% 44% 43.8% 45.1% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 127598 (51.0%) 116118 (46.5%) 6233 (2.5%) 249949 #REF! #REF! 48.1% C
  Pennsylvania 4 Melissa Hart 2000 59% 64% R R 49% 48% 48% R 56% Comfortable 44.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 39% 36% 39% 6% 2 50.0% 43.6% 44.0% 44.3% 44.5% 0% 50.0% -12% 39% 44% 43.6% -8% 42% 45% 44.9% -4% 36% 37% 37% -11% 38% 44% 44.0% 44.0% -8% 40% 44% 44.3% 44.5% -2% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 152313 (52.0%) 134688 (45.9%) 6167 (2.1%) 293168 #REF! #REF! 47.5% C
2 UU Pennsylvania 5 John Peterson 1996 83% 87% R R 40% 40% 40% R 63% Landslide 36.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 17% 13% 17% 13% 4 45.3% 30.8% 32.3% 30.8% 36.8% 9% 45.3% -27% 22% 31% 30.8% -23% 25% 32% 32.3% -5% 13% 14% 14% -26% 15% 31% 31.3% 32.3% -23% 18% 31% 30.8% 1 36.8% 0% 0% R-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 137837 (59.1%) 89180 (38.2%) 6197 (2.7%) 233214 #REF! #REF! 39.8% R
  Pennsylvania 6 Jim Gerlach 2002 66% 51% D R 46% 51% 51% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 72% 49% 72% 0% 1 50.0% 50.1% 57.2% 72.5% 47.8% 0% 50.0% -2% 49% 50% 50.1% 21% 65% 58% 64.7% -23% 49% 56% 56% 5% 57% 53% 57.2% 57.2% 21% 73% 59% 72.5% 47.8% 5% 0% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 129318 (48.7%) 130472 (49.2%) 5589 (2.1%) 265379 #REF! #REF! 50.8% C
  Pennsylvania 7 Curt Weldon 1986 65% 66% R R 52% 52% 52% R 55% Tight 45.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 9.0 36% 34% 36% 5% 3 50.0% 46.2% 46.3% 45.5% 49.1% 0% 50.0% -18% 40% 46% 46.2% -17% 41% 47% 46.6% -1% 34% 35% 35% -18% 36% 46% 46.3% 46.3% -17% 37% 45% 45.5% 49.1% 0% 0% R-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 140862 (47.2%) 150805 (50.5%) 6945 (2.3%) 298612 #REF! #REF! 52.1% C
O Pennsylvania 8 Open (James Greenwood) 1992 1 59% 63% R R 52% 53% 53% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 41% 37% 41% 0% 0 50.0% 47.5% 47.9% 47.8% 49.5% 0% 50.0% -15% 42% 47% 47.5% -12% 45% 49% 48.6% -3% 37% 38% 38% -14% 39% 48% 47.9% 47.9% -12% 42% 48% 47.8% 49.5% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 130500 (45.9%) 144878 (50.9%) 9050 (3.2%) 284428 #REF! #REF! 52.5% C
  Pennsylvania 9 Bill Shuster 2001 52% 71% R R 34% 36% 36% R 66% Landslide 33.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 50% 29% 50% 16% 1 41.4% 33.6% 35.8% 50.5% 32.9% 17% 41.4% -7% 31% 34% 33.6% 14% 45% 40% 45.0% -21% 29% 36% 36% 0% 37% 36% 35.8% 35.8% 14% 51% 41% 50.5% 32.9% 2% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 149393 (64.0%) 80008 (34.3%) 4079 (1.7%) 233480 #REF! #REF! 35.9% R
UU Pennsylvania 10 Donald Sherwood 1998 53% 93% R R 49% 42% 42% R 58% Comfortable 41.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 41% 7% 41% 8% 3 47.6% 30.5% 41.6% 41.5% 39.1% 5% 47.6% -35% 19% 31% 30.5% -1% 41% 42% 41.6% -34% 7% 18% 18% -24% 19% 34% 34.2% 41.6% -1% 42% 42% 41.5% 39.1% -7% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 140387 (56.4%) 100754 (40.5%) 7887 (3.2%) 249028 #REF! #REF! 42.1% R
UU Pennsylvania 11 Paul Kanjorski 1984 66% 56% D D 52% 56% 56% D 56% Comfortable 55.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 10.0 70% 56% 56% 6% 3 50.0% 55.6% 55.6% 55.6% 58.5% 0% 50.0% 0% 56% 56% 55.6% 15% 60% 66% 60.4% -15% 61% 56% 56% 0% 56% 55% 55.6% 55.6% 0% 56% 55% 55.6% 58.5% 4% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 101629 (43.1%) 127140 (53.9%) 6983 (3.0%) 235752 #REF! #REF! 55.5% D
UU Pennsylvania 12 John Murtha 1974 71% 74% D D 47% 56% 56% D 63% Landslide 63.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 15.0 80% 74% 74% 13% 3 50.9% 62.0% 62.0% 63.2% 59.4% 2% 50.9% 17% 62% 68% 62.0% 24% 64% 72% 64.2% -7% 76% 74% 74% 17% 62% 73% 62.0% 62.0% 17% 63% 73% 63.2% 59.4% 9% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 105451 (43.8%) 131960 (54.8%) 3595 (1.5%) 241006 #REF! #REF! 56.4% D
O Pennsylvania 13 Open (Joe Hoeffel) 1998 1 53% 51% D D 56% 57% 57% Competitive 52% Competitive 51.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 53% 51% 51% 2% 0 51.8% 53.0% 49.9% 49.9% 60.3% 4% 51.8% -6% 55% 53% 53.0% -5% 56% 54% 54.3% -2% 52% 51% 51% -6% 55% 50% 49.9% 49.9% -6% 55% 50% 49.9% 60.3% 0% 0% D-Competitive 0 0-under23 0-under 0-cont 0 0-under23 117773 (42.1%) 155903 (55.7%) 5972 (2.1%) 279648 #REF! #REF! 57.3% D
U Pennsylvania 14 Mike Doyle 1994 69% 100% D D 59% 71% 71% D 75% Landslide 75.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 82% 100% 82% 25% 3 65.7% 80.7% 74.7% 75.5% 74.2% 31% 65.7% 29% 81% 91% 80.7% 11% 75% 78% 74.7% 18% 94% 100% 94% 23% 79% 93% 78.7% 74.7% 11% 75% 81% 75.5% 74.2% 12% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 74085 (28.1%) 183640 (69.6%) 6007 (2.3%) 263732 #REF! #REF! 71.2% D
O Pennsylvania 15 Open (Pat Toomey) 1998 1 53% 57% R R 51% 50% 50% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 47% 43% 47% 0% 0 50.0% 47.8% 48.2% 48.9% 47.3% 0% 50.0% -8% 45% 48% 47.8% -4% 48% 49% 49.1% -4% 43% 44% 44% -6% 45% 48% 48.2% 48.2% -4% 48% 49% 48.9% 47.3% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 116817 (47.7%) 119393 (48.7%) 8865 (3.6%) 245075 #REF! #REF! 50.3% C
  Pennsylvania 16 Joseph Pitts 1996 67% 88% R R 41% 37% 37% R 66% Landslide 34.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 29% 12% 29% 16% 3 42.6% 28.6% 34.6% 34.0% 34.1% 15% 42.6% -26% 20% 29% 28.6% -8% 32% 35% 34.6% -18% 12% 17% 17% -20% 18% 31% 30.6% 34.6% -8% 30% 34% 34.0% 34.1% -4% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 144862 (62.1%) 82729 (35.5%) 5713 (2.4%) 233304 #REF! #REF! 37.1% R
  Pennsylvania 17 Tim Holden 1992 72% 51% D D 46% 43% 43% Vulnerable 46% Vulnerable 46.3%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 69% 51% 51% 4% 3 48.5% 45.7% 45.7% 46.3% 46.0% 3% 48.5% 8% 46% 49% 45.7% 26% 52% 60% 51.5% -18% 57% 51% 51% 8% 46% 50% 45.7% 45.7% 8% 46% 50% 46.3% 46.0% -3% 0% D-Vulnerable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 139932 (55.9%) 103603 (41.4%) 6994 (2.8%) 250529 #REF! #REF! 43.0% R
  Pennsylvania 18 Tim Murphy 2002 69% 60% D R 53% 48% 48% R 55% Tight 45.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 1.0 65% 40% 65% 5% 1 50.0% 45.5% 48.2% 65.7% 45.2% 0% 50.0% -8% 43% 45% 45.5% 16% 59% 54% 59.3% -25% 40% 48% 48% 0% 49% 48% 48.2% 48.2% 16% 66% 55% 65.7% 45.2% -5% 0% R-Tight 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 154252 (51.6%) 139346 (46.6%) 5240 (1.8%) 298838 #REF! #REF! 48.2% C
UU Pennsylvania 19 Todd Russell Platts 2000 73% 91% R R 38% 38% 38% R 66% Landslide 34.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 27% 9% 27% 16% 2 43.0% 28.1% 34.2% 33.5% 34.5% 14% 43.0% -28% 18% 28% 28.1% -10% 31% 34% 34.2% -18% 9% 15% 15% -22% 16% 30% 30.1% 34.2% -10% 28% 34% 33.5% 34.5% 0% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-uncont 1 153892 (61.4%) 90125 (35.9%) 6766 (2.7%) 250783 #REF! #REF! 37.5% R
  Rhode Island 1 Patrick Kennedy 1994 67% 60% D D 65% 64% 64% D 59% Comfortable 58.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 67% 60% 60% 9% 3 58.9% 61.4% 58.9% 58.9% 67.4% 18% 58.9% -4% 63% 61% 61.4% 2% 65% 66% 65.2% -7% 62% 60% 60% -4% 63% 59% 58.9% 58.9% -4% 63% 59% 58.9% 67.4% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 61369 (30.8%) 125174 (62.8%) 12705 (6.4%) 199248 #REF! #REF! 64.4% D
  Rhode Island 2 James Langevin 2000 62% 76% D D 62% 61% 61% D 65% Landslide 64.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 62% 76% 62% 15% 2 55.9% 66.4% 64.8% 61.6% 64.4% 12% 55.9% 15% 66% 71% 66.4% 0% 62% 62% 61.5% 15% 72% 76% 72% 10% 65% 71% 64.8% 64.8% 0% 62% 61% 61.6% 64.4% 0% 0% D-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 69076 (33.2%) 124314 (59.8%) 14366 (6.9%) 207756 #REF! #REF! 61.4% D
U South Carolina 1 Henry Brown, Jr. 2000 60% 90% R R 40% 40% 40% R 60% Comfortable 40.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 40% 10% 40% 10% 2 45.5% 30.3% 40.1% 41.1% 37.0% 9% 45.5% -30% 20% 30% 30.3% 0% 40% 40% 40.1% -30% 10% 20% 20% -20% 21% 34% 33.5% 40.1% 0% 41% 40% 41.1% 37.0% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-uncont 1 139758 (58.7%) 91510 (38.4%) 6849 (2.9%) 238117 #REF! #REF! 40.0% R
U South Carolina 2 Joe Wilson 2001 75% 84% R R 42% 41% 41% R 68% Landslide 32.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 24% 16% 24% 18% 1 46.2% 32.5% 33.4% 34.1% 37.7% 8% 46.2% -25% 24% 32% 32.5% -17% 30% 35% 35.3% -8% 16% 18% 18% -22% 19% 33% 33.4% 33.4% -17% 25% 34% 34.1% 37.7% -1% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 145953 (58.3%) 97985 (39.1%) 6374 (2.5%) 250312 #REF! #REF! 40.7% R
U South Carolina 3 J. Gresham Barrett 2002 68% 67% R R 37% 36% 36% R 65% Landslide 35.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 32% 33% 33% 15% 1 41.6% 35.0% 35.0% 34.8% 33.1% 17% 41.6% -3% 34% 35% 35.0% -4% 33% 35% 34.6% 1% 33% 32% 33% -3% 34% 35% 35.0% 35.0% -3% 34% 35% 34.8% 33.1% -1% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 142414 (63.2%) 77694 (34.5%) 5185 (2.3%) 225293 #REF! #REF! 36.1% R
O South Carolina 4 Open (Jim DeMint) 1998 1 80% 69% R R 35% 35% 35% R 60% Comfortable 40.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Change 5% 50% 3.0 20% 31% 31% 10% 0 40.3% 33.4% 33.4% 33.2% 31.8% 19% 40.3% -4% 32% 33% 33.4% -14% 25% 30% 30.1% 10% 31% 27% 31% -4% 32% 33% 33.4% 33.4% -4% 32% 33% 33.2% 31.8% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 151975 (64.3%) 78449 (33.2%) 5843 (2.5%) 236267 #REF! #REF! 34.8% R
  South Carolina 5 John Spratt 1982 59% 86% D D 44% 45% 45% Competitive 51% Competitive 50.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 11.0 60% 86% 60% 1% 3 50.0% 58.4% 49.8% 50.9% 47.8% 0% 50.0% 41% 58% 72% 58.4% 15% 50% 55% 49.8% 26% 77% 86% 77% 33% 56% 76% 55.6% 49.8% 15% 51% 59% 50.9% 47.8% 1% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 119052 (54.9%) 93637 (43.2%) 3979 (1.8%) 216668 #REF! #REF! 44.8% R
  South Carolina 6 James Clyburn 1992 72% 67% D D 65% 60% 60% D 63% Landslide 62.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 67% 67% 67% 13% 3 54.4% 62.2% 62.2% 62.7% 62.9% 9% 54.4% 7% 62% 65% 62.2% 7% 62% 65% 62.3% 0% 67% 67% 67% 7% 62% 66% 62.2% 62.2% 7% 63% 66% 62.7% 62.9% -5% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 87252 (40.3%) 126287 (58.3%) 2991 (1.4%) 216530 #REF! #REF! 59.9% D
V South Dakota 1 Stephanie Herseth 2004   73% 51% R D 39% 39% 39% Vulnerable 43% Vulnerable 42.9%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 5% 50% 0.0 27% 51% 27% 7% 1 44.7% 42.9% 40.3% 25.6% 42.2% 11% 44.7% 11% 43% 47% 42.9% -13% 35% 31% 30.7% 24% 43% 51% 43% 3% 40% 42% 40.3% 40.3% -13% 34% 26% 25.6% 42.2% 0% 0% D-Vulnerable 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 190700 (60.3%) 118804 (37.6%) 6765 (2.1%) 316269 39.2% R
2 Tennessee 1 Bill Jenkins 1996 100% 100% R R 39% 39% 39% R 64% Landslide 36.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 0% 0% 0% 14% 4 44.6% 26.2% 26.1% 23.4% 36.1% 11% 44.6% -39% 13% 26% 26.2% -39% 13% 26% 26.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -39% 1% 26% 26.2% 26.1% -39% 1% 23% 23.4% 1 36.1% 0% 0% R-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 132304 (60.9%) 81335 (37.5%) 3441 (1.6%) 217080 #REF! #REF! 39.1% R
  Tennessee 2 Jimmy Duncan 1988 89% 79% R R 42% 41% 41% R 67% Landslide 32.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 9% 21% 21% 17% 3 46.1% 34.1% 34.1% 32.8% 37.6% 8% 46.1% -20% 27% 34% 34.1% -32% 19% 30% 30.2% 12% 21% 17% 21% -20% 22% 34% 34.1% 34.1% -20% 22% 33% 32.8% 37.6% -2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 144412 (59.2%) 95100 (39.0%) 4246 (1.7%) 243758 #REF! #REF! 40.6% R
  Tennessee 3 Zach Wamp 1994 64% 65% R R 46% 43% 43% R 60% Landslide 39.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 33% 35% 35% 10% 3 48.5% 40.5% 40.5% 39.9% 40.0% 3% 48.5% -8% 38% 40% 40.5% -10% 36% 40% 39.7% 3% 35% 35% 35% -8% 36% 40% 40.5% 40.5% -8% 36% 40% 39.9% 40.0% -3% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 132792 (57.0%) 96441 (41.4%) 3843 (1.6%) 233076 #REF! #REF! 43.0% R
  Tennessee 4 Lincoln Davis 2002 66% 52% R D 48% 50% 50% Competitive 51% Competitive 50.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 37% 52% 37% 1% 1 50.0% 50.9% 46.0% 35.7% 53.4% 0% 50.0% 2% 51% 52% 50.9% -14% 46% 41% 41.2% 15% 47% 52% 47% -3% 49% 46% 46.0% 46.0% -14% 45% 36% 35.7% 53.4% 2% 0% D-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 111639 (49.7%) 109559 (48.8%) 3507 (1.6%) 224705 #REF! #REF! 50.4% C
  Tennessee 5 Jim Cooper 2002 72% 64% D D 61% 58% 58% D 60% Landslide 60.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 70% 64% 64% 10% 1 52.8% 60.1% 60.1% 60.5% 61.3% 6% 52.8% 5% 60% 62% 60.1% 11% 62% 66% 62.0% -6% 66% 64% 64% 5% 60% 63% 60.1% 60.1% 5% 60% 63% 60.5% 61.3% -3% 0% D-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 95309 (41.5%) 130111 (56.7%) 4015 (1.7%) 229435 #REF! #REF! 58.3% D
  Tennessee 6 Bart Gordon 1984 62% 66% D D 48% 51% 51% D 56% Comfortable 56.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 10.0 65% 66% 65% 6% 3 50.0% 55.7% 55.7% 56.5% 53.7% 0% 50.0% 15% 56% 61% 55.7% 14% 55% 60% 55.5% 1% 66% 66% 66% 15% 56% 65% 55.7% 55.7% 14% 56% 64% 56.5% 53.7% 3% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 112096 (49.2%) 111872 (49.1%) 3729 (1.6%) 227697 #REF! #REF! 50.7% C
UU Tennessee 7 Marsha Blackburn 2002 70% 71% R R 45% 42% 42% R 62% Landslide 37.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 27% 29% 29% 12% 1 47.1% 37.5% 37.5% 36.6% 38.6% 6% 47.1% -12% 33% 38% 37.5% -15% 32% 37% 36.8% 2% 29% 29% 29% -12% 30% 38% 37.5% 37.5% -12% 30% 37% 36.6% 38.6% -3% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-over 146213 (58.8%) 99423 (40.0%) 3098 (1.2%) 248734 #REF! #REF! 41.6% R
  Tennessee 8 John Tanner 1988 72% 70% D D 51% 52% 52% D 60% Comfortable 59.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 8.0 74% 70% 70% 10% 3 50.0% 58.3% 58.3% 59.5% 55.4% 0% 50.0% 18% 58% 64% 58.3% 21% 59% 67% 59.4% -4% 71% 70% 70% 18% 58% 69% 58.3% 58.3% 18% 60% 69% 59.5% 55.4% 1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 102998 (47.9%) 109221 (50.8%) 2633 (1.2%) 214852 #REF! #REF! 52.4% C
2 Tennessee 9 Harold Ford Jr. 1996 100% 84% D D 79% 65% 65% D 68% Landslide 67.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 86% 84% 84% 18% 4 59.3% 71.1% 71.1% 72.4% 67.8% 19% 59.3% 19% 71% 78% 71.1% 21% 72% 79% 71.8% -2% 85% 84% 84% 19% 71% 83% 71.1% 71.1% 19% 72% 83% 72.4% 1 67.8% -14% 0% D-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-cont 0 4-over 83531 (35.7%) 147898 (63.2%) 2758 (1.2%) 234187 #REF! #REF! 64.8% D 2002 2004
  Texas 1 Max Sandlin 1996 56% 56% D D 38% 37% 32% Vulnerable 39% Vulnerable 39.5%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 10% 50% 4.0 50% 51% 50% 11% 3 37.7% 38.5% 38.4% 39.5% 35.2% 25% 37.7% 19% 38% 45% 38.5% 18% 38% 44% 38.2% 1% 51% 51% 51% 19% 38% 50% 38.4% 38.4% 18% 39% 49% 39.5% 35.2% -5% -5% D-Vulnerable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 142544 (64.1%) 79801 (35.9%)   (0.0%) 222345 #REF! #REF! 37.5% R 38% 32%
  Texas 2 Nick Lampson 1996 59% 59% D D 47% 39% 37% Vulnerable 42% Vulnerable 41.9%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 5% 50% 4.0 49% 57% 49% 8% 3 42.4% 43.5% 42.7% 41.9% 39.9% 15% 42.4% 20% 44% 50% 43.5% 12% 41% 45% 41.1% 8% 54% 57% 54% 18% 43% 53% 42.7% 42.7% 12% 42% 48% 41.9% 39.9% -10% -2% D-Vulnerable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 133641 (63.0%) 78493 (37.0%)   (0.0%) 212134 #REF! #REF! 38.6% R 46% 37%
U Texas 3 Sam Johnson 1991 72% 74% R R 32% 29% 30% R 71% Landslide 28.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.5 27% 27% 27% 21% 3 35.4% 28.8% 28.8% 28.6% 26.9% 29% 35.4% -3% 28% 29% 28.8% -3% 28% 29% 28.8% 0% 27% 27% 27% -3% 28% 29% 28.8% 28.8% -3% 28% 29% 28.6% 26.9% -2% 1% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 154525 (72.2%) 59357 (27.8%)   (0.0%) 213882 #REF! #REF! 29.4% R 29% 30%
S Texas 4 Ralph Hall* 2002 60% 58% D R 30% 31% 34% R 59% Comfortable 40.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 1.0 64% 44% 64% 9% 1 39.0% 40.7% 51.8% 65.1% 30.5% 22% 39.0% 11% 41% 37% 40.7% 31% 54% 44% 54.0% -20% 44% 51% 51% 17% 52% 39% 51.8% 51.8% 31% 65% 46% 65.1% 30.5% 4% 2% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-under23 157678 (70.2%) 66995 (29.8%)   (0.0%) 224673 #REF! #REF! 31.4% R 31% 34%
  Texas 5 Jeb Hensarling 2002   54% 58% R R 44% 40% 33% R 65% Landslide 35.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 36% 36% 36% 15% 1 38.9% 35.0% 36.7% 36.7% 30.4% 22% 38.9% 2% 35% 34% 35.0% 2% 35% 34% 34.9% 0% 36% 36% 36% 2% 37% 34% 36.7% 36.7% 2% 37% 34% 36.7% 30.4% -10% -6% R-Landslide 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 118703 (62.1%) 72507 (37.9%)   (0.0%) 191210 #REF! #REF! 39.5% R 40% 33%
  Texas 6 Joe Barton 1984 88% 70% R R 31% 35% 33% R 69% Landslide 31.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 10.0 15% 28% 28% 19% 3 38.9% 31.8% 31.8% 31.4% 30.4% 22% 38.9% -5% 30% 32% 31.8% -19% 21% 27% 27.3% 14% 28% 24% 28% -5% 29% 32% 31.8% 31.8% -5% 29% 31% 31.4% 30.4% 3% -1% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 146931 (66.9%) 72754 (33.1%)   (0.0%) 219685 #REF! #REF! 34.7% R 35% 33%
  Texas 7 John Abney Culbertson 2000 74% 89% R R 29% 34% 30% R 71% Landslide 29.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 28% 7% 28% 21% 2 35.7% 22.7% 29.3% 29.1% 27.2% 29% 35.7% -23% 15% 23% 22.7% -3% 28% 29% 29.3% -20% 7% 14% 14% -16% 15% 25% 24.9% 29.3% -3% 29% 29% 29.1% 27.2% 1% -3% R-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-uncont 1 130053 (67.9%) 61498 (32.1%)   (0.0%) 191551 #REF! #REF! 33.7% R 34% 30%
  Texas 8 Kevin Brady 1996 92% 93% R R 24% 24% 30% R 76% Landslide 24.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 15% 13% 15% 26% 3 35.9% 24.8% 25.3% 24.2% 27.4% 28% 35.9% -17% 19% 25% 24.8% -16% 20% 25% 25.3% -1% 13% 14% 14% -17% 15% 25% 25.0% 25.3% -16% 16% 24% 24.2% 27.4% 6% 7% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 187243 (77.7%) 53843 (22.3%)   (0.0%) 241086 #REF! #REF! 23.9% R 24% 30%
O, D Texas 9 Open (Chris Bell) 2002 1 60% 55% D D 47% 46% 69% D 63% Landslide 63.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 1.0 60% 55% 55% 13% 0 63.0% 59.3% 53.8% 53.8% 71.5% 26% 63.0% -14% 64% 59% 59.3% -8% 66% 63% 62.9% -5% 57% 55% 55% -14% 64% 54% 53.8% 53.8% -14% 63% 54% 53.8% 71.5% 0% 0% D-Landslide 0 0-under23 0-under 0-cont 0 0-under23 124758 (55.3%) 100778 (44.7%)   (0.0%) 225536 #REF! #REF! 46.3% R 53% 69%
O, U Texas 10 Open (Lloyd Doggett) 1994 1 85% 84% D D 50% 55% 33% Vulnerable 39% Vulnerable 38.8%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Change Landslide 10% 50% 5.0 85% 84% 84% 11% 0 38.8% 50.2% 50.2% 53.7% 36.3% 22% 38.8% 51% 50% 68% 50.2% 51% 50% 68% 50.2% 0% 84% 84% 84% 51% 50% 83% 50.2% 50.2% 51% 54% 83% 53.7% 36.3% 0% 0% D-Vulnerable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 89738 (46.9%) 101534 (53.1%)   (0.0%) 191272 #REF! #REF! 54.7% D 55% 33%
O Texas 11 Open (Chet Edwards) 1990 1 55% 52% D D 35% 34% 25% Vulnerable 31% Vulnerable 30.5%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Change Landslide 10% 50% 7.0 55% 52% 52% 19% 0 30.5% 33.8% 33.8% 35.6% 28.0% 39% 30.5% 27% 34% 43% 33.8% 30% 35% 45% 34.9% -3% 53% 52% 52% 27% 34% 51% 33.8% 33.8% 27% 36% 51% 35.6% 28.0% 0% 0% D-Vulnerable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 129701 (67.5%) 62465 (32.5%)   (0.0%) 192166 #REF! #REF! 34.1% R 34% 25%
  Texas 12 Kay Granger 1996 63% 92% R R 42% 35% 36% R 66% Landslide 33.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 31% 9% 31% 16% 3 41.2% 26.9% 34.1% 33.7% 32.7% 18% 41.2% -27% 18% 27% 26.9% -5% 32% 34% 34.1% -22% 9% 16% 16% -20% 17% 29% 29.2% 34.1% -5% 32% 34% 33.7% 32.7% -7% 1% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 141032 (66.6%) 70751 (33.4%)   (0.0%) 211783 #REF! #REF! 35.0% R 35% 36%
U Texas 13 Mac Thornberry 1994 68% 79% R R 33% 27% 26% R 74% Landslide 25.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 26% 20% 26% 24% 3 31.3% 23.8% 24.4% 25.7% 22.8% 37% 31.3% -6% 22% 24% 23.8% 0% 26% 26% 25.8% -6% 20% 22% 22% -4% 23% 24% 24.4% 24.4% 0% 27% 26% 25.7% 22.8% -7% -1% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 156330 (74.6%) 53146 (25.4%)   (0.0%) 209476 #REF! #REF! 27.0% R 27% 26%
UU Texas 14 Ron Paul 1996 60% 68% R R 37% 36% 36% R 60% Comfortable 40.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 39% 32% 39% 10% 3 41.1% 34.3% 35.1% 40.1% 32.6% 18% 41.1% -4% 33% 34% 34.3% 3% 38% 37% 38.0% -8% 32% 34% 34% -2% 35% 35% 35.1% 35.1% 3% 40% 37% 40.1% 32.6% -1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 136460 (65.6%) 71434 (34.4%)   (0.0%) 207894 #REF! #REF! 36.0% R 36% 36%
2 Texas 15 Ruben Hinojosa 1996 88% 100% D D 57% 56% 49% Competitive 52% Competitive 52.3%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 4.0 81% 93% 81% 2% 4 50.0% 63.8% 59.9% 62.1% 52.3% 0% 50.0% 44% 64% 79% 63.8% 32% 60% 71% 59.9% 12% 89% 93% 89% 40% 63% 88% 62.5% 59.9% 32% 62% 80% 62.1% 1 52.3% -7% -7% D-Competitive 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 63495 (45.5%) 76161 (54.5%)   (0.0%) 139656 #REF! #REF! 56.1% D 56% 49%
  Texas 16 Silvestre Reyes 1996 68% 100% D D 61% 61% 59% D 62% Landslide 61.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 66% 98% 66% 12% 3 53.5% 71.9% 61.4% 61.9% 62.0% 7% 53.5% 39% 72% 85% 71.9% 7% 61% 64% 61.4% 32% 88% 98% 88% 29% 68% 87% 68.5% 61.4% 7% 62% 65% 61.9% 62.0% -2% -2% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 56276 (40.7%) 81860 (59.3%)   (0.0%) 138136 #REF! #REF! 60.9% D 61% 59%
  Texas 17 Chet Edwards 1990 55% 52% D D 35% 29% 32% Vulnerable 40% Vulnerable 39.6%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 10% 50% 7.0 51% 54% 51% 10% 3 37.3% 39.2% 38.9% 39.6% 34.8% 25% 37.3% 22% 39% 47% 39.2% 20% 38% 45% 38.3% 3% 53% 54% 53% 21% 39% 52% 38.9% 38.9% 20% 40% 50% 39.6% 34.8% -3% 2% D-Vulnerable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 161877 (72.2%) 62241 (27.8%)   (0.0%) 224118 #REF! #REF! 29.4% R 34% 32%
U Texas 18 Sheila Jackson Lee 1994 76% 77% D D 75% 76% 72% D 72% Landslide 72.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 74% 73% 73% 22% 3 66.5% 72.3% 72.3% 72.4% 75.0% 33% 66.5% 1% 72% 73% 72.3% 2% 73% 73% 72.7% -1% 73% 73% 73% 1% 72% 72% 72.3% 72.3% 1% 72% 72% 72.4% 75.0% -3% -4% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 47335 (25.5%) 138059 (74.5%)   (0.0%) 185394 #REF! #REF! 76.1% D 76% 72%
I V Texas 19 Randy Neugebaure 2003 92% 51% R R 21% 26% 25% R 60% Comfortable 40.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 0.5 12% 48% 48% 10% 1 30.4% 40.3% 48.9% 48.9% 21.9% 39% 30.4% 23% 40% 32% 40.3% -13% 16% 21% 20.7% 36% 48% 36% 48% 23% 49% 32% 48.9% 48.9% 23% 49% 34% 48.9% 21.9% 4% -1% R-Comfortable 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 149350 (75.5%) 48400 (24.5%)   (0.0%) 197750 #REF! #REF! 26.1% R 26% 25%
2 Texas 20 Charlie Gonzalez 1998 88% 100% D D 58% 59% 58% D 61% Landslide 60.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 88% 99% 88% 11% 4 52.3% 71.5% 67.7% 69.7% 60.8% 5% 52.3% 41% 71% 85% 71.5% 30% 68% 78% 67.7% 12% 95% 99% 95% 37% 70% 94% 70.2% 67.7% 30% 70% 87% 69.7% 1 60.8% 0% -1% D-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 64659 (42.9%) 86133 (57.1%)   (0.0%) 150792 #REF! #REF! 58.7% D 59% 58%
  Texas 21 Lamar Smith 1986 76% 73% R R 31% 29% 33% R 68% Landslide 31.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 9.0 25% 31% 31% 18% 3 38.0% 32.0% 32.0% 31.9% 29.5% 24% 38.0% -2% 31% 32% 32.0% -7% 28% 30% 30.1% 6% 31% 29% 31% -2% 32% 32% 32.0% 32.0% -2% 32% 32% 31.9% 29.5% 1% 4% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 206157 (72.8%) 77056 (27.2%)   (0.0%) 283213 #REF! #REF! 28.8% R 29% 33%
  Texas 22 Tom DeLay 1984 60% 63% R R 38% 33% 33% R 63% Landslide 37.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 10.0 34% 36% 36% 13% 3 38.0% 34.8% 37.0% 37.0% 29.5% 24% 38.0% 3% 35% 34% 34.8% 1% 33% 33% 33.4% 2% 36% 35% 36% 3% 37% 34% 37.0% 37.0% 3% 37% 34% 37.0% 29.5% -6% -1% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 156219 (68.2%) 72806 (31.8%)   (0.0%) 229025 #REF! #REF! 33.4% R 34% 33%
  Texas 23 Henry Bonilla 1992 59% 52% R R 44% 43% 36% R 57% Comfortable 42.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 6.0 33% 42% 42% 7% 3 41.6% 39.8% 42.6% 42.6% 33.1% 17% 41.6% 5% 40% 38% 39.8% -3% 34% 35% 35.0% 9% 42% 39% 42% 5% 43% 38% 42.6% 42.6% 5% 43% 38% 42.6% 33.1% -8% -7% R-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 105789 (58.6%) 74727 (41.4%)   (0.0%) 180516 #REF! #REF! 43.0% R 43% 36%
O Texas 24 Open (Martin Frost) 1978 1 62% 65% D D 53% 56% 32% Vulnerable 37% Vulnerable 37.0%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Change Landslide 10% 50% 13.0 62% 65% 62% 13% 0 37.0% 42.5% 42.2% 43.6% 34.5% 26% 37.0% 33% 42% 54% 42.5% 30% 42% 52% 41.5% 3% 64% 65% 64% 32% 42% 63% 42.2% 42.2% 30% 44% 61% 43.6% 34.5% 0% 0% D-Vulnerable 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 70665 (45.7%) 83806 (54.3%)   (0.0%) 154471 #REF! #REF! 55.9% D 56% 32%
  Texas 25 Lloyd Doggett 1994 85% 84% D D 50% 53% 62% D 74% Landslide 74.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 5.0 96% 93% 93% 24% 3 56.1% 71.9% 73.1% 74.1% 64.6% 12% 56.1% 31% 72% 83% 71.9% 35% 73% 85% 73.1% -4% 94% 93% 93% 31% 72% 92% 71.9% 73.1% 31% 74% 92% 74.1% 64.6% 12% 8% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 81359 (48.4%) 86764 (51.6%)   (0.0%) 168123 #REF! #REF! 53.2% D 55% 62%
  Texas 26 Michael Burgess 2002 72% 75% R R 29% 28% 37% R 64% Landslide 36.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 36% 34% 36% 14% 1 42.9% 36.4% 36.6% 36.8% 34.4% 14% 42.9% -3% 35% 36% 36.4% -2% 36% 37% 36.9% -1% 34% 35% 35% -3% 36% 37% 36.6% 36.6% -2% 37% 37% 36.8% 34.4% 8% 9% R-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-cont 0 1-better2 1-over 166762 (73.3%) 60771 (26.7%)   (0.0%) 227533 #REF! #REF! 28.3% R 28% 37%
  Texas 27 Solomon Ortiz 1982 63% 61% D D 52% 53% 50% D 53% Tight 53.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 11.0 62% 58% 58% 3% 3 50.0% 52.8% 52.8% 53.4% 53.1% 0% 50.0% 8% 53% 56% 52.8% 11% 54% 58% 53.9% -3% 59% 58% 58% 8% 53% 57% 52.8% 52.8% 8% 53% 57% 53.4% 53.1% -2% -3% D-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 75600 (48.7%) 79716 (51.3%)   (0.0%) 155316 #REF! #REF! 52.9% C 53% 50%
O D Texas 28 Open (Ciro Rodriguez) 1997 1 89% 71% D D 59% 61% 51% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 3.5 89% 71% 71% 0% 0 50.0% 57.6% 57.6% 59.0% 53.9% 0% 50.0% 20% 58% 64% 57.6% 38% 64% 76% 63.5% -18% 77% 71% 71% 20% 58% 70% 57.6% 57.6% 20% 59% 70% 59.0% 53.9% 0% 0% D-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 62275 (40.8%) 90202 (59.2%)   (0.0%) 152477 #REF! #REF! 60.8% D 61% 51%
U Texas 29 Gene Green 1992 73% 95% D D 63% 62% 57% D 61% Landslide 61.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 68% 90% 68% 11% 3 51.5% 67.9% 60.6% 61.3% 60.0% 3% 51.5% 33% 68% 79% 67.9% 11% 61% 64% 60.6% 22% 83% 90% 83% 26% 65% 82% 65.5% 60.6% 11% 61% 67% 61.3% 60.0% -6% -5% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 42770 (39.4%) 65863 (60.6%)   (0.0%) 108633 #REF! #REF! 62.2% D 62% 57%
U Texas 30 E Bernice Johnson 1992 92% 74% D D 73% 71% 74% D 75% Landslide 75.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 93% 78% 78% 25% 3 68.5% 75.2% 75.2% 75.4% 77.0% 37% 68.5% 4% 75% 76% 75.2% 19% 80% 87% 80.4% -16% 83% 78% 78% 4% 75% 77% 75.2% 75.2% 4% 75% 77% 75.4% 77.0% 1% 3% D-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 48916 (30.9%) 109507 (69.1%)   (0.0%) 158423 #REF! #REF! 70.7% D 71% 74%
  Texas 31 John Carter 2002   69%   R New 30% 31% R 68% Landslide 31.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.0 ###### 32% ##### 18% 1 36.7% 31.8% ##### #VALUE! 28.2% 27% 36.7% 1% 32% 32% 31.8% #### ### #### ###### ##### 32% #### #### ##### #### #### ###### ##### ##### ### ### ###### 28.2% ###### 1% R-Landslide 1 #VALUE! 1-under #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 160802 (71.6%) 63903 (28.4%)   (0.0%) 224705 #REF! #REF! 30.0% R 30% 31%
I Texas 32 Pete Sessions 1996 54% 68% R R 44% 37% 36% R 61% Landslide 38.8%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 4.0 38% 31% 38% 11% 3 41.0% 34.1% 34.8% 38.8% 32.5% 18% 41.0% -4% 33% 34% 34.1% 2% 37% 36% 37.0% -7% 31% 33% 33% -2% 34% 35% 34.8% 34.8% 2% 39% 36% 38.8% 32.5% -8% -1% R-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 129527 (64.9%) 70029 (35.1%)   (0.0%) 199556 #REF! #REF! 36.7% R 37% 36%
  Utah 1 Rob Bishop 2002 69% 61% R R 24% 29% 43% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 1.0 50% 54% 54% 0% 1 48.5% 50.1% 54.6% 54.6% 40.0% 3% 48.5% 11% 50% 46% 50.1% 7% 48% 45% 47.7% 4% 54% 52% 54% 11% 55% 46% 54.6% 54.6% 11% 55% 47% 54.6% 40.0% 19% 14% R-Competitive 1 1-under23 1-under 1-cont 0 1-under23 167716 (67.6%) 66792 (26.9%) 13415 (5.4%) 247923 #REF! #REF! 28.5% R
  Utah 2 Jim Matheson 2000 56% 50% D D 35% 32% 32% Vulnerable 38% Vulnerable 38.0%     Landslide Vulnerable Vulnerable Loser Landslide 10% 50% 2.0 53% 50% 50% 12% 2 37.8% 38.0% 38.0% 39.2% 35.3% 24% 37.8% 17% 38% 44% 38.0% 20% 39% 46% 39.1% -3% 51% 50% 50% 17% 38% 49% 38.0% 38.0% 17% 39% 49% 39.2% 35.3% -3% 0% D-Vulnerable 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-over 183387 (66.9%) 84266 (30.7%) 6573 (2.4%) 274226 #REF! #REF! 32.3% R
  Utah 3 Christopher Cannon 1996 59% 67% R R 24% 25% 25% R 57% Comfortable 43.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 42% 33% 42% 7% 3 30.7% 30.2% 36.9% 43.2% 22.2% 39% 30.7% 8% 30% 28% 30.2% 17% 37% 31% 36.6% -10% 33% 36% 36% 11% 37% 29% 36.9% 36.9% 17% 43% 32% 43.2% 22.2% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-under23 163983 (74.6%) 51878 (23.6%) 4002 (1.8%) 219863 #REF! #REF! 25.2% R
  Vermont 1 Bernard Sanders 1990 76% 64% I I 52% 52% 52% I 57% Comfortable 57.1%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 7.0 76% 64% 64% 7% 3 50.0% 56.2% 56.2% 57.1% 55.2% 0% 50.0% 12% 56% 60% 56.2% 24% 60% 68% 60.2% -12% 68% 64% 64% 12% 56% 63% 56.2% 56.2% 12% 57% 63% 57.1% 55.2% 0% 0% I-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 119775 (40.7%) 149022 (50.6%) 25511 (8.7%) 294308 52.2% C
UU Virginia 1 Jo Ann Davis 2000 58% 100% R R 41% 41% 41% R 58% Comfortable 41.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 42% 0% 42% 8% 2 46.3% 27.4% 41.9% 43.4% 37.8% 7% 46.3% -41% 13% 27% 27.4% 2% 42% 41% 41.9% -42% 0% 14% 14% -27% 15% 32% 32.0% 41.9% 2% 43% 41% 43.4% 37.8% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-uncont 1 146914 (58.4%) 98731 (39.2%) 6060 (2.4%) 251705 #REF! #REF! 40.8% R
O Virginia 2 Open (Edward Schrock) 2000 1 52% 83% R R 46% 44% 44% Competitive 50% Competitive 49.9%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 48% 17% 48% 0% 0 49.9% 35.2% 38.7% 49.0% 41.4% 0% 49.9% -28% 26% 35% 35.2% 4% 47% 46% 46.9% -31% 17% 27% 27% -17% 28% 39% 38.7% 38.7% 4% 49% 46% 49.0% 41.4% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 115512 (54.8%) 90256 (42.8%) 4940 (2.3%) 210708 #REF! #REF! 44.4% R
2 Virginia 3 Robert Scott 1992 98% 100% D D 67% 68% 68% D 71% Landslide 70.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 98% 100% 98% 21% 4 62.0% 78.2% 77.6% 79.8% 70.5% 24% 62.0% 32% 78% 89% 78.2% 31% 78% 88% 77.6% 2% 99% 100% 99% 32% 78% 98% 78.0% 77.6% 31% 80% 97% 79.8% 1 70.5% 0% 0% D-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 65724 (32.3%) 134020 (65.9%) 3603 (1.8%) 203347 #REF! #REF! 67.5% D
  Virginia 4 J. Randy Forbes 2001 52% 100% R R 51% 46% 46% R 69% Landslide 30.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 1.5 43% 0% 43% 19% 1 50.0% 30.7% 45.0% 44.8% 42.8% 0% 50.0% -46% 15% 31% 30.7% -3% 44% 45% 45.0% -43% 0% 14% 14% -32% 15% 35% 35.4% 45.0% -3% 44% 45% 44.8% 42.8% -5% 0% R-Landslide 1 1-over3 1-over 1-uncont 1 131834 (54.2%) 107553 (44.2%) 3690 (1.5%) 243077 #REF! #REF! 45.8% R
  Virginia 5 Virgil Goode 1996 69% 64% R R 42% 43% 43% R 60% Comfortable 40.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 32% 36% 36% 10% 3 48.4% 40.8% 40.8% 40.3% 39.9% 3% 48.4% -6% 39% 41% 40.8% -11% 35% 39% 39.2% 5% 36% 35% 36% -6% 37% 41% 40.8% 40.8% -6% 37% 40% 40.3% 39.9% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 137223 (55.1%) 102814 (41.3%) 8907 (3.6%) 248944 #REF! #REF! 42.9% R
2  UU Virginia 6 Bob Goodlatte 1992 99% 100% R R 40% 39% 39% R 64% Landslide 36.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 6.0 -1% 0% 0% 14% 4 44.5% 26.1% 25.9% 23.4% 36.0% 11% 44.5% -39% 13% 26% 26.1% -39% 13% 26% 25.9% 1% 0% 0% 0% -39% 1% 26% 26.1% 25.9% -39% 1% 23% 23.4% 1 36.0% -1% 0% R-Landslide 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 147961 (59.8%) 92407 (37.4%) 6984 (2.8%) 247352 #REF! #REF! 39.0% R
UU Virginia 7 Eric Cantor 2000 67% 70% R R 37% 39% 39% R 63% Landslide 36.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 2.0 35% 30% 35% 13% 2 44.2% 36.0% 36.5% 37.4% 35.7% 12% 44.2% -8% 33% 36% 36.0% -3% 36% 38% 37.6% -5% 30% 32% 32% -7% 33% 37% 36.5% 36.5% -3% 36% 37% 37.4% 35.7% 2% 0% R-Landslide 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 172425 (60.7%) 105504 (37.1%) 6261 (2.2%) 284190 #REF! #REF! 38.7% R
  Virginia 8 James Moran 1990 63% 60% D D 57% 59% 59% D 59% Comfortable 59.4%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 7.0 65% 60% 60% 9% 3 53.5% 59.3% 59.3% 59.4% 62.0% 7% 53.5% 1% 59% 60% 59.3% 6% 61% 63% 61.1% -5% 62% 60% 60% 1% 59% 59% 59.3% 59.3% 1% 59% 59% 59.4% 62.0% 2% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 101788 (38.2%) 152940 (57.4%) 11692 (4.4%) 266420 #REF! #REF! 59.0% D
  Virginia 9 Rick Boucher 1982 70% 66% D D 44% 44% 44% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.7%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 11.0 70% 66% 66% 3% 3 49.5% 51.2% 51.2% 52.7% 47.0% 1% 49.5% 22% 51% 59% 51.2% 26% 53% 61% 52.5% -4% 67% 66% 66% 22% 51% 65% 51.2% 51.2% 22% 53% 65% 52.7% 47.0% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 129110 (54.6%) 100298 (42.4%) 7011 (3.0%) 236419 #REF! #REF! 44.0% R
  Virginia 10 Frank Wolf 1980 84% 72% R R 41% 43% 43% R 63% Landslide 36.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.0 18% 28% 28% 13% 3 48.2% 37.9% 37.9% 36.9% 39.7% 4% 48.2% -15% 33% 38% 37.9% -25% 26% 35% 34.5% 10% 28% 25% 28% -15% 29% 38% 37.9% 37.9% -15% 29% 37% 36.9% 39.7% 2% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 148211 (55.8%) 109063 (41.1%) 8106 (3.1%) 265380 #REF! #REF! 42.7% R
UU Virginia 11 Tom Davis 1994 62% 83% R R 51% 47% 47% R 58% Comfortable 41.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 34% 17% 34% 8% 3 50.0% 36.9% 38.9% 41.9% 44.0% 0% 50.0% -30% 27% 37% 36.9% -13% 38% 43% 42.8% -18% 17% 22% 22% -25% 23% 39% 38.9% 38.9% -13% 35% 42% 41.9% 44.0% -4% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 140961 (51.7%) 123702 (45.4%) 8087 (3.0%) 272750 #REF! #REF! 47.0% R
  Washington 1 Jay Inslee 1998 55% 56% D D 55% 54% 54% Competitive 53% Competitive 52.8%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 54% 56% 54% 3% 3 50.0% 54.9% 54.7% 52.8% 57.5% 0% 50.0% 1% 55% 55% 54.9% -1% 54% 54% 54.0% 2% 55% 56% 55% 1% 55% 54% 54.7% 54.7% -1% 54% 53% 52.8% 57.5% -1% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 123879 (42.4%) 154583 (52.9%) 13803 (4.7%) 292265 #REF! #REF! 54.5% D
  Washington 2 Rick Larsen 2000 50% 50% D D 50% 49% 49% Competitive 50% Competitive 49.5%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 2.0 50% 50% 50% 0% 2 50.0% 49.6% 49.5% 49.5% 52.3% 0% 50.0% 1% 50% 50% 49.6% 0% 49% 50% 49.5% 0% 50% 50% 50% 1% 50% 49% 49.5% 49.5% 0% 50% 49% 49.5% 52.3% 0% 0% D-Competitive 2 2-over3 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 129027 (46.2%) 133216 (47.7%) 16765 (6.0%) 279008 #REF! #REF! 49.3% C
  Washington 3 Brian Baird 1998 56% 62% D D 48% 48% 48% Competitive 51% Competitive 51.1%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 56% 62% 56% 1% 3 50.0% 52.4% 51.8% 51.1% 50.9% 0% 50.0% 14% 52% 57% 52.4% 8% 51% 53% 50.5% 6% 60% 62% 60% 12% 52% 59% 51.8% 51.8% 8% 51% 55% 51.1% 50.9% -1% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 131958 (48.0%) 127292 (46.3%) 15732 (5.7%) 274982 #REF! #REF! 47.9% C
  Washington 4 Doc Hastings 1994 61% 67% R R 35% 36% 36% R 59% Comfortable 40.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 40% 33% 40% 9% 3 41.5% 35.0% 35.7% 40.6% 33.0% 17% 41.5% -3% 34% 35% 35.0% 4% 38% 37% 38.4% -6% 33% 35% 35% -1% 36% 36% 35.7% 35.7% 4% 41% 37% 40.6% 33.0% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 141891 (61.9%) 78768 (34.4%) 8629 (3.8%) 229288 #REF! #REF! 36.0% R
O Washington 5 Open (George Nethercutt) 1994 1 57% 63% R R 41% 41% 41% R 53% Tight 46.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Change 0% 50% 5.0 43% 37% 43% 3% 0 46.6% 39.9% 40.4% 43.7% 38.1% 7% 46.6% -4% 39% 40% 39.9% 2% 42% 42% 42.1% -5% 37% 39% 39% -2% 40% 40% 40.4% 40.4% 2% 44% 42% 43.7% 38.1% 0% 0% R-Tight 0 0-under23 0-over 0-cont 0 0-better2 0-over 150013 (55.6%) 106610 (39.5%) 13262 (4.9%) 269885 #REF! #REF! 41.1% R
  Washington 6 Norm Dicks 1976 65% 64% D D 53% 53% 53% D 58% Comfortable 57.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 14.0 65% 64% 64% 8% 3 50.0% 56.8% 56.8% 57.6% 56.2% 0% 50.0% 11% 57% 61% 56.8% 12% 57% 61% 57.3% -1% 65% 64% 64% 11% 57% 63% 56.8% 56.8% 11% 58% 63% 57.6% 56.2% 1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 115736 (42.8%) 139643 (51.6%) 15098 (5.6%) 270477 #REF! #REF! 53.2% D
  Washington 7 Jim McDermott 1988 73% 74% D D 74% 73% 73% D 71% Landslide 71.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 8.0 72% 74% 72% 21% 3 67.9% 73.6% 73.4% 71.2% 76.4% 36% 67.9% 1% 74% 74% 73.6% -1% 73% 73% 72.6% 2% 73% 74% 73% 0% 73% 72% 73.4% 73.4% -1% 73% 71% 71.2% 76.4% -1% 0% D-Landslide 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 66066 (20.7%) 228988 (71.8%) 23952 (7.5%) 319006 #REF! #REF! 73.4% D
O Washington 8 Open (Jennifer Dunn) 1992 1 62% 60% R R 51% 50% 50% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.0%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Change Landslide 0% 50% 6.0 38% 40% 40% 0% 0 50.0% 46.9% 46.9% 46.2% 47.2% 0% 50.0% -10% 43% 47% 46.9% -12% 42% 46% 46.1% 2% 40% 39% 40% -10% 41% 47% 46.9% 46.9% -10% 41% 46% 46.2% 47.2% 0% 0% R-Competitive 0 0-over3 0-over 0-cont 0 0-over 136575 (47.3%) 140387 (48.6%) 11838 (4.1%) 288800 #REF! #REF! 50.2% C
  Washington 9 Adam Smith 1996 62% 59% D D 55% 54% 54% D 56% Comfortable 55.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 61% 59% 59% 6% 3 50.0% 55.6% 55.6% 55.9% 57.2% 0% 50.0% 4% 56% 57% 55.6% 7% 56% 59% 56.4% -2% 59% 59% 59% 4% 56% 58% 55.6% 55.6% 4% 56% 58% 55.9% 57.2% -1% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 104549 (42.9%) 128076 (52.6%) 10874 (4.5%) 243499 #REF! #REF! 54.2% D
2 West Virginia 1 Alan Mollohan 1982 88% 100% D D 44% 44% 44% Competitive 47% Competitive 47.4%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 11.0 88% 100% 88% 3% 4 49.9% 62.7% 58.7% 61.7% 47.4% 0% 49.9% 56% 63% 82% 62.7% 43% 59% 73% 58.7% 12% 96% 100% 96% 52% 61% 95% 61.4% 58.7% 43% 62% 87% 61.7% 1 47.4% 0% 0% D-Competitive 4 4-over3 4-over 4-uncont 1 122827 (54.0%) 97432 (42.8%) 7399 (3.3%) 227658 #REF! #REF! 44.4% R
  West Virginia 2 Shelly Moore Capito 2000 48% 60% R R 46% 45% 45% R 55% Comfortable 44.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 2.0 51% 40% 51% 5% 2 50.0% 43.6% 44.9% 52.4% 42.4% 0% 50.0% -5% 42% 44% 43.6% 6% 49% 47% 49.5% -11% 40% 44% 44% -2% 45% 45% 44.9% 44.9% 6% 52% 48% 52.4% 42.4% 0% 0% R-Comfortable 2 2-under23 2-over 2-cont 0 2-better2 2-over 118839 (54.0%) 96524 (43.8%) 4787 (2.2%) 220150 #REF! #REF! 45.4% R
  West Virginia 3 Nick Rahall 1976 91% 70% D D 52% 52% 52% D 59% Comfortable 59.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 14.0 91% 70% 70% 9% 3 50.0% 58.2% 58.2% 59.5% 55.3% 0% 50.0% 18% 58% 64% 58.2% 39% 65% 78% 65.1% -21% 77% 70% 70% 18% 58% 69% 58.2% 58.2% 18% 59% 69% 59.5% 55.3% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 94809 (47.3%) 101541 (50.7%) 3942 (2.0%) 200292 #REF! #REF! 52.3% C
  Wisconsin 1 Paul Ryan 1998 67% 67% R R 51% 47% 47% R 59% Comfortable 41.2%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 3.0 29% 33% 33% 9% 3 50.0% 42.2% 42.2% 41.2% 43.8% 0% 50.0% -14% 37% 42% 42.2% -17% 35% 41% 41.0% 3% 33% 32% 33% -14% 34% 42% 42.2% 42.2% -14% 34% 41% 41.2% 43.8% -4% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 163040 (51.1%) 144138 (45.2%) 11656 (3.7%) 318834 #REF! #REF! 46.8% R
  Wisconsin 2 Tammy Baldwin 1998 51% 66% D D 60% 60% 60% Competitive 50% Competitive 50.2%     Landslide Competitive Competitive Competitive Loser Landslide 0% 50% 3.0 51% 66% 51% 0% 3 54.3% 61.9% 60.3% 50.2% 62.8% 9% 54.3% 6% 62% 64% 61.9% -9% 57% 54% 54.0% 15% 61% 66% 61% 1% 60% 60% 60.3% 60.3% -9% 56% 50% 50.2% 62.8% 0% 0% D-Competitive 3 3-under23 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 125442 (36.2%) 201738 (58.2%) 19398 (5.6%) 346578 #REF! #REF! 59.8% D
  Wisconsin 3 Ron Kind 1996 64% 63% D D 51% 51% 51% D 56% Comfortable 55.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 4.0 64% 63% 63% 6% 3 50.0% 54.8% 54.8% 55.7% 53.7% 0% 50.0% 12% 55% 59% 54.8% 13% 55% 59% 55.0% -1% 63% 63% 63% 12% 55% 62% 54.8% 54.8% 12% 56% 62% 55.7% 53.7% 0% 0% D-Comfortable 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 144948 (45.7%) 155832 (49.1%) 16626 (5.2%) 317406 #REF! #REF! 50.7% C
O Wisconsin 4 Open (Jerry Kleczka) 1984 1 61% 87% D D 48% 67% 67% D 62% Landslide 61.6%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Change 10% 50% 10.0 61% 87% 61% 12% 0 61.6% 73.7% 62.9% 59.8% 70.1% 23% 61.6% 20% 74% 80% 73.7% -6% 65% 63% 62.9% 26% 78% 87% 78% 11% 71% 77% 70.8% 62.9% -6% 65% 60% 59.8% 70.1% 0% 0% D-Landslide 0 0-under23 0-over 0-uncont 1 84823 (30.2%) 183810 (65.5%) 11814 (4.2%) 280447 #REF! #REF! 67.1% D
  Wisconsin 5 James Sensenbrenner 1978 74% 87% R R 36% 37% 37% R 67% Landslide 32.7%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 13.0 27% 13% 27% 17% 3 42.1% 28.9% 33.4% 32.7% 33.6% 16% 42.1% -23% 21% 29% 28.9% -10% 30% 33% 33.4% -14% 13% 18% 18% -19% 19% 30% 30.4% 33.4% -10% 28% 33% 32.7% 33.6% 1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 233005 (61.6%) 132310 (35.0%) 13080 (3.5%) 378395 #REF! #REF! 36.6% R
  Wisconsin 6 Thomas Petri 1979 65% 100% R R 45% 44% 44% R 60% Landslide 39.9%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 12.5 34% 0% 34% 10% 3 49.5% 29.4% 40.6% 39.9% 41.0% 1% 49.5% -44% 15% 29% 29.4% -10% 37% 41% 40.6% -34% 0% 11% 11% -33% 12% 33% 33.1% 40.6% -10% 35% 40% 39.9% 41.0% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-uncont 1 170134 (53.4%) 134926 (42.4%) 13499 (4.2%) 318559 #REF! #REF! 44.0% R
U Wisconsin 7 David Obey 1969 63% 64% D D 50% 49% 49% D 54% Tight 54.3%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Tight Tight Loser 0% 50% 17.5 62% 64% 62% 4% 3 50.0% 54.1% 53.9% 54.3% 52.1% 0% 50.0% 15% 54% 59% 54.1% 13% 53% 58% 53.4% 2% 64% 64% 64% 14% 54% 63% 53.9% 53.9% 13% 54% 61% 54.3% 52.1% -1% 0% D-Tight 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-better2 3-over 150068 (46.8%) 152177 (47.5%) 18294 (5.7%) 320539 #REF! #REF! 49.1% C
  Wisconsin 8 Mark Green 1998 75% 73% R R 46% 45% 45% R 62% Landslide 38.0%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Landslide Landslide Loser 10% 50% 3.0 24% 27% 27% 12% 3 50.0% 39.2% 39.2% 38.0% 42.0% 0% 50.0% -18% 33% 39% 39.2% -21% 31% 38% 38.3% 3% 27% 26% 27% -18% 28% 39% 39.2% 39.2% -18% 28% 38% 38.0% 42.0% -1% 0% R-Landslide 3 3-over3 3-over 3-cont 0 3-over 165819 (52.2%) 138056 (43.4%) 13974 (4.4%) 317849 #REF! #REF! 45.0% R
  Wyoming 1 Barbara Cubin 1994   67% 61% R R 29% 30% 30% R 60% Comfortable 40.5%     Landslide Wrong Wrong Comfortable Comfortable Loser 5% 50% 5.0 34% 39% 39% 10% 3 35.4% 36.3% 40.5% 40.5% 26.9% 29% 35.4% 10% 36% 33% 36.3% 4% 32% 31% 32.5% 6% 39% 38% 39% 10% 40% 33% 40.5% 40.5% 10% 40% 34% 40.5% 26.9% 1% 0% R-Comfortable 3 3-under23 3-under 3-cont 0 3-under23 147947 (69.2%) 60481 (28.3%) 5298 (2.5%) 213726 29.9% R
 
Codes 14
UU Incumbent is completely uncontested
U Incumbent is uncontested by a major party
O Open seat in 2004 election
D Incumbent defeated in primary
S Denotes an incumbent who switched parties.  See note below.
I Incumbent vs incumbent matchup
2 Denotes an incumbent who was not contested by a major party in each of the last two elections.
V Special Election since November 2002
Notes
1.  Data listed for 2000 and 2002 winning percentages refer to the districts that the 2004 incumbent held in those years.
2.  Ralph Hall (TX-4) was elected as a Democrat from 1980 to 2002.  He switched to the Republican Party on Jan 5, 2004.  For the purposes of this model, which is not designed to
     handle representatives changing party, we are considering him a Republican elected for the first time in 2002.
3.  Two TX incumbents are running against other incumbents, due to redistricting.  Both districts are heavily Republican, so the districts are listed with the Republican incumbent.
     Randy Neugebaure (R, TX-19) is running against Charlie Stenhold (formerly TX-17).
     Pete Sessions (R, TX-32) is running against Martin Frost (formerly TX-24).
4.  Bernie Sanders (VT-1) is an Independent whose projection is treated as if he were a Democrat.
5.  Several Texas incumbents are running in different district numbers in 2004 than they did in 2002.
6.  Rodney Alexander (LA-5) switched to the Republican Party in 2004.
Notes about Special Elections
To avoid complicating our projection model, we modify presentation of election results in our main spreadsheet when a seat is filled
by a special election. Following is a list of special elections since November 2002. The winners' percentage in the special election
is reported in the November 2002 result column. The previous incumbent's Nov. 2002 percentage is listed below.
1.  Ben Chandler (KY-6) was elected on February 17, 2004. His predecessor Ernie Fletcher won with 72% in November 2002.
2.  Stephanie Herseth (SD-1) was elected June 1, 2004.  Her predecessor Bill Janklow won with 53% in November 2002.
3.  Edward Case (HI-2) was elected in January 2003 with 42% of the vote.  His predecessor Patsy Mink won with 56% in November 2002.
4.  Randy Neugebauer (TX-19) was elected in June 3, 2003. His predecessor Lary Combest won with 92% in November 2002.
5.  G. K. Butterfield (NC-1) was elected July 20, 2004.  His predecessor Frank W. Balance Jr. won with 64% in November 2002.