Monopoly Politics Projections
projections by adjusting the partisanship of a district based on prior
election results. The adjustment depends on the number of
terms an incumbent has served and whether the incumbent's worst
performance from the last two elections was better or worse than the
partisanship of the district.
The following variables control how each adjustment is
made. The default value is in parentheses.
% decrease for
"overrachieving" incumbent (60%)
percentage decrease from an incumbents worst performance down to
the partisanship of the district. Applies to 3 or more term
incumbents whose worst performance is better than the partisanship
of the district.
Absolute reduction for
"underachieving" incumbent (1%)
The projection equals the incumbents worst
performance minus the absolute reduction. Applies to 2 or
more term incumbents whose worst performance is worse then the
% adjustment to better
2nd election (33%)
If a two-term incumbents second performance is
stronger than the first, we adjust the worst performance 33% of
the way from the weaker (first) performance to the stronger
% decrease if previous
race uncontested (35%)
If the second race was
uncontested, we put less weight on the 2nd performance.
% decrease for "overachieving" new incumbent
If a new incumbent performs better than partisanship, we reduce the projection 67% of the way
from the worst performance down to the partisanship.
% increase for "underachieving" first-termer
If a freshman performed worse
than partisanship if her first election, we increase her
projection 33% of
the way up to the partisanship.
Buffer of absolute increase/decrease of 5.5%
for open seats (11%)
In open seats, the projection
equals the partisanship of the district minus 11%, with no
projection below 50%. So a 65% partisan district is
projected to be a 54% Democratic