Accuracy of Predictions Made in Monopoly Politics 2000
April 2001 


In August 2000, the Center for Voting and Democracy predicted the winning party and winning percentage in 368 of the 435 Congressional races in the Monopoly Politics 2000 report. 

We correctly predicted the winner in over 99% of the races and the winning margin in over 98% of the races, all without using any information about campaign financing, strength of opponent or any specifics about the race.


Accuracy of Predicted Winners

Prediction

 

Races

Correct

Percent

Incorrect

Landslide

>20%

235

235

100.0%

 

Comfortable

>10%

89

88

98.9%

UT-2, open seat in a Rep district won by a Dem

Win

Win

43

41

95.3%

AR-4 loss by 2%; CT-2 loss by 1%

Total

367

364

99.2%


Accuracy of Predicted Winning Margins

Prediction

 

Races

Correct

Percent

Incorrect

Landslide

>20%

235

234

99.6%

IL-18 won by only 18%

Comfortable

>10%

89

86

95.6%

CA-20 won by only 7%; MD-8 won by only 7%, UT-2 see above

Win

Win

43

41

95.3%

AR-4 see above; CT-2 see above

Total

367

361

98.1%


State by state listing of results

You can download a Microsoft Excel file listing the predictions and outcomes for all 50 states.

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Copyright 2001 The Center for Voting and Democracy
6930 Carroll Ave. Suite 901    Takoma Park, MD  20912
(301) 270-4616 ____ [email protected]