Election Night, As the Polls Close Major Parties' Benchmarks for Success |
On Election Day, November 7, the first states to close their polls will be Indiana and Kentucky. Exit polls and raw numbers from those states will be available shortly thereafter. Here is a guide to election night that is grounded in the Center for Voting and Democracy's past reports on congressional elections and presidential elections. Note that the percentages and House districts listed
are not predictions. Rather, they are the benchmarks that will indicate
what kind of night it will be for the major parties in their struggle for
control of the White House, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House. Given
recent polls, the election almost certainly will be very close. If one of
the presidential candidates consistently succeeds in meeting the
benchmarks provided here, you can predict with some certainty that this
candidate will win relatively comfortably. If the results are mixed,
settle in with your popcorn -- and perhaps your sleeping bag -- for a long
night. For those concerned about control of the U.S. House and Senate, a
long night may be necessary regardless, although we will know a great deal
by the time of the network projections after the 9 pm poll-closing
periods. (Note that all poll-closing times are Eastern Standard Time.)
|
State | Polls Close | Pres. Benchmarks | Senate | House Benchmarks | |||||||||||
(EST) | Bush | Gore | (Inc. party) | R Targets* | D Targets* | Comments | |||||||||
Indiana | 6:00 PM | 56% | 42% | Easy R | 3, 9 | 2, 8 | Hill in CD-9 may be a quiet R target | ||||||||
Kentucky | 52% | 46% | x | 4 | 3*,6* | Key races to indicate overall House control | |||||||||
Florida | 7:00 PM | Win | Win | Win (now R)* | 3 | 8*,12,22* | Bellwether races at all levels | ||||||||
Georgia | 52% | 46% | D > 50% | 2 | 7,8 | Miller seeks to avoid runoff to keep D Senate gain | |||||||||
New Hampshire | Win | Win | x | x | 2 | Where will McCain vote go? | |||||||||
South Carolina | 54% | 44% | x | 5 | Chance for D's to control redistricting | ||||||||||
Vermont | 45% | 52% | Easy R | Race for governor and legislature tight | |||||||||||
Virginia | 53% | 45% | Win (now D)* | 2* | All eyes on U.S. Senate race | ||||||||||
North Carolina | 7:30 PM | 54% | 44% | x | 2 | 8, 11 | House gains hard due to incumbent gerrymander | ||||||||
Ohio | 51% | 47% | Easy R | 6 | 12 | 2002 the big year to watch for House races | |||||||||
West Virginia | Win | Win | Easy D | 2* | x | A two-party state, although Clinton won easily | |||||||||
Connecticut | 8:00 PM | 45% | 53% | Easy D | 2, 5* | 6 | D's seek monopoly control of state redistricting | ||||||||
Delaware | 46% | 52% | Win (now R)* | x | Bush win would mean big night; key Senate race | ||||||||||
Dist. of Columbia | 13% | 84% | x | x | No voting representation; can Nader beat Bush? | ||||||||||
Illinois | 44% | 53% | x | 17 | 10*, 15 | Polls showing close prez race bad news for D's | |||||||||
Maine | 46% | 51% | R | x | Good state to measure Nader factor | ||||||||||
Maryland | 45% | 53% | Easy D | 8 | Morella holds most Dem CD held by an R | ||||||||||
Massachusetts | 37% | 60% | Easy D | x | All-Democratic congressional delegation | ||||||||||
Michigan | 46% | 51% | Win (now R)* | 8 | Key race for U.S. Senate control | ||||||||||
Mississippi | 54% | 44% | Easy R | 4 | Shows' defense of CD-4 only wildcard | ||||||||||
New Jersey | 44% | 54% | Win (now D) | 12* | 7* | House races key indicators for D's hopes | |||||||||
Oklahoma | 58% | 40% | x | x | 2* | CD 2 could be harder for D's than expected | |||||||||
Pennsylvania | Win | Win | R | 4*, 13 | 10 | Huge state in prez race; state leg races critical | |||||||||
Rhode Island | 38% | 59% | Win (now R) | x | Possible surprise in Senate race? | ||||||||||
Tennessee | Win | Win | Easy R | 6 | Gore's home-state edge to push him to win? | ||||||||||
Texas | 55% | 41% | Easy R | 1, 2 | 14 | Key state leg races for control of redistricting | |||||||||
Arkansas | 8:30 PM | 47% | 50% | x | 2 | 4 | Can Clinton's bounce carry over to Gore? | ||||||||
Alabama | 9:00 PM | 55% | 43% | x | 4 | Four House races not contested by major party | |||||||||
Colorado | 54% | 44% | x | 2 | 6 | CD 2 could be sleeper for R's | |||||||||
Kansas | 62% | 36% | x | 3* | Last stand for D's in CD 3 | ||||||||||
Louisiana | Win | Win | x | 6 | Clinton won big, but Gore trails | ||||||||||
Minnesota | 46% | 49% | Win (now R)* | 4,6* | 1 | Third party activity: CD 4 and Nader strong | |||||||||
Missouri | Win | Win | Win (now R)* | 6* | 2 | Critical presidential and Senate races | |||||||||
Nebraska | 63% | 35% | Win (now D)* | x | Senate race could veer toward R with coattails] | ||||||||||
New Mexico | Win | Win | D | 3 | 1* | Good chance winner here to win presidency | |||||||||
New York | 39% | 58% | Win (now D) | 1*, 4 | 2* | Hillary benefits from big D edge? Watch CD 2 | |||||||||
South Dakota | 54% | 43% | x | x | Quiet year in South Dakota | ||||||||||
Wisconsin | Win | Win | D | 2 | 1 | All eyes on presidential race | |||||||||
Wyoming | 56% | 37% | Easy R | x | Easy year for R's in Wyoming | ||||||||||
Arizona | 10:00 PM | 51% | 47% | Easy R | 1, 5,6 | Prez and House race closer than expected? | |||||||||
Idaho | 63% | 33% | x | x | Heavily R state | ||||||||||
Iowa | Win | Win | 4 | 2 | Close state should tilt Gore for him to win | ||||||||||
Montana | 55% | 42% | Win (now R) | x | AL | Leans R, but congressional wildcards? | |||||||||
Nevada | 53% | 44% | Win (now D)* | 1 | Best chance for R pick-up in Senate | ||||||||||
North Dakota | 58% | 41% | D | AL | x | Congressional D's run far ahead of projection | |||||||||
Utah | 65% | 33% | Easy R | x | 2* | CD 2 leans heavily R, but strong D candidate | |||||||||
California | 11:00 PM | 47% | 50% | D | 10, 20*,22 | 15*,27*… | D's also hopes for CD 36 & 49; Nader vote big? | ||||||||
Hawaii | 41% | 56% | Easy D | 1,2 | Status quo results likely | ||||||||||
Oregon | 50% | 47% | x | 1,5 | Nader makes Gore's job even harder here | ||||||||||
Washington | 48% | 50% | Win (now R)* | 1,3,9 | 2*,5 | Extremely competitive two-party state | |||||||||
Alaska | Midnight | 62% | 30% | x | x | AL | Nader seeks to beat Gore | ||||||||
* Particularly important congressional races to watch | |||||||||||||||
The Center for Voting and Democracy | |||||||||||||||
www.fairvote.org | |||||||||||||||
6930 Carroll Avenue, Takoma Park, MD 20912 | |||||||||||||||
301-270-4616 | |||||||||||||||